Running Back Notebook

As July is ending and we reach the final leg of the fantasy offseason, the Notebook series rolls along. So far we’ve covered the fantasy impact from teams turning the reins over to rookie quarterbacks, game scripts and play calling, scoring and efficiency per offensive possession, production and usage in the red zone, and a top-down view of the tight end position. The positional outlook is where we’re staying today with a running back focus.

Revival or a Renaissance?

After a running trend of wide receiver production trumping running back production, fantasy backs turned the tides back into their favor in 2016 with their highest-scoring fantasy season collectively since 2009. In terms of PPR scoring, the position in bulk was neutral in relation to the season prior with backs scoring just 43.4 more points as a group than in 2015, but the major difference in fantasy circles was the output produced at the top of the position.

Editor’s Note: The 2017 Draft Guide provides tiers, projections, ADP reports, mock drafts for many different types of leagues, Sleepers and Busts and much more. Get the NFL Draft Guide now.

Production from Top-12 Fantasy RBs Over the Past 10 Years

Year	PPR Pts	Std Pts	RuAtt	RuYds	RuTD	Rec.	ReYds	ReTD	Tch
2016	3312.1	2780.2	3163	14582	123	532	4555	24	3695
2015	2751.0	2236.6	2623	11576	88	524	4574	20	3147
2014	3261.7	2688.9	3108	14166	106	576	4889	29	3684
2013	3290.6	2697.3	2998	13495	103	628	5311	33	3626
2012	3177.6	2741.9	3238	15576	107	500	3960	19	3738
2011	3186.1	2623.2	3060	13907	97	589	5214	22	3649
2010	3364.3	2765.1	3331	15197	107	607	5201	18	3938
2009	3311.3	2781.5	3312	15308	125	545	4366	13	3857
2008	3259.6	2787.5	3451	15427	133	484	3519	19	3935
2007	3147.2	2607.7	3176	13317	111	589	4612	20	3765

Production from Fantasy RB2s (RBs 13-24) Over the Past 10 Years

Year	PPR Pts	Std Pts	RuAtt	RuYds	RuTD	Rec.	ReYds	ReTD	Tch
2016	2270.0	1865.0	2346	9713	73	433	3617	15	2779
2015	2086.7	1675.7	2111	8445	46	478	4122	19	2589
2014	2102.8	1698.6	2203	9344	58	417	3174	18	2620
2013	2343.7	1832.1	2478	9801	69	516	4053	10	2994
2012	2234.4	1824.3	2620	10862	76	378	3042	9	2998
2011	2322.7	1927.8	2298	10342	85	409	3325	9	2707
2010	2391.7	1946.8	2737	11080	75	426	3567	14	3163
2009	2347.8	1920.4	2602	11280	81	386	3087	11	2988
2008	2435.9	2035.04	2492	10744	87	425	3440	16	2917
2007	2204.6	1816.98	2684	12067	63	347	2705	5	3031

After a historically poor 2015, RB1s posted their best fantasy campaign in several years in PPR and non-PPR alike. Five different backs cleared 290 PPR points in 2016, and seven different backs posted at least 225 standard points, the most in a year since 2006 for either arbitrary watermark. Those trends carry over to RB2, which also suggests that the running back position had a very stable year in terms of injuries with more backs turning in complete seasons.

Regardless of health, where the top of the position really hammered their previous peers’ production was in the touchdown department. Touchdowns are the fantasy lifeblood and the most important thing in our game. You’re not going to win many fantasy games without outscoring your opponent in the touchdown department regardless of scoring format. In 2016, running backs as a whole scored 458 touchdowns -- their most in a season since 2009 -- after averaging 410 per year over the previous six seasons. Fantasy RB1s averaged 10.3 rushing touchdowns with seven backs reaching pay dirt double-digit times on the ground, the most since 2012. In terms of overall touchdowns, RB1s averaged 12.3 touchdowns per player, the highest rate since 2008. Fantasy RB2s averaged 7.3 touchdowns per player, their highest total since 2011.

The real balance will be deciphering whether that touchdown spike was pure variance or natural recoil that should’ve been anticipated and something we can count on holding water going forward. In the Red Zone Notebook, we discussed how 2016 had an abnormal spike in terms of short yardage opportunities near the goal line and how that impacted rushing touchdown output and how that could have a fragile impact on projecting the position in 2017.

Relying on that touchdown production rolling over is flimsy when you check out the usage for the top backs. Opportunity is king in fantasy football and underneath the hood of the above breakdowns, you can spot that the usage of the best backs wasn’t any different than it had been for the handful of years prior to that outlier drop-off in 2015, when we were trending toward selecting wide receivers for stability over backs.

NFL teams have steadily run the ball at a lower rate over the past eight seasons with the five lowest rushing rates in league history coming over the past five seasons and the past two seasons creating new record lows. With that, running back rushing opportunity has progressively declined and backs aren’t circumventing that decline in rushing opportunity with newfound opportunities in the passing game as their overall touches have dwindled in line with the league turning to the passing game. The running back position had 299 fewer touches than they had collectively in 2015.

The TL; DR portion of this reads as this: should we have taken the heinous 2015 season from the running back position into more account for a bounce back in 2016? Without diving into the minutia of picking the right players, the short answer is yes. Will we in turn overvalue the running back production of 2016 because it didn’t stem from true opportunity and was carried by touchdown inflation that is combustible? I’m inclined to say yes.

That said, you’re going to select and need to select running backs to your fantasy rosters, and this notebook is here to diagnose things that matter at the position: most importantly, where your fantasy production is coming from through team outlook, touchdown ability and a look at which backs rely on rushing or receiving the most.

Winning and Losing

We know how game script affects NFL play calling and the effect that it has on the running back position comes to fruition when looking at how good or poor teams correlate to aiding fantasy output.

Percentage of Top-12 and Top-24 Scorers Per Team Wins Since 1970

TmWins	Top-12 %	Top-24 %
0	0.00%	0.09%
1	0.18%	0.44%
2	1.95%	2.39%
3	2.13%	3.19%
4	4.26%	5.94%
5	6.56%	6.74%
6	7.80%	8.69%
7	10.99%	11.61%
8	11.88%	12.06%
9	13.12%	11.79%
10	15.60%	13.39%
11	9.75%	9.49%
12	8.33%	7.89%
13	4.26%	3.55%
14	2.66%	2.13%
15	0.53%	0.62%
16	0.00%	0.00%

Since 1970, just 22.9 percent of all top-12 scoring running backs have come from teams with fewer than seven wins, and just 8.5 percent have come from teams with fewer than five wins. It hardly swells when expanding the field to RB2s or better, with 27.5 percent of those players coming on teams with six wins or less and just 6.1 percent with four or fewer wins. Just being an average team holds a significant advantage to output. Of course, there are no absolutes in fantasy football and this is no exception. Both Jordan Howard and Melvin Gordon were top-12 scorers last year if you’re looking to latch onto a ray of sunshine and a shred of recency bias over a larger picture, but it’s harder to consistently beat a poor situation for running backs. As it stands now, the Bills, Bears, Browns, Jaguars, Rams, Jets and 49ers all have over/under win totals set below seven wins and all those teams except for the Jets and 49ers have running backs currently being selected in the top-15 of the position.

In case you’re wondering what the sample size of the individual win buckets and the hit rate of producing a top-12 or top-24 scorers is, we’ve got you covered.

Wins	Tms	Top-12 %	Top-24 %
0	3	0.00%	33.33%
1	14	7.14%	35.71%
2	48	22.92%	56.25%
3	56	21.43%	64.29%
4	119	20.17%	56.30%
5	118	31.36%	64.41%
6	127	34.65%	77.17%
7	154	40.26%	85.06%
8	161	41.61%	84.47%
9	148	50.00%	89.86%
10	161	54.66%	93.79%
11	112	49.11%	95.54%
12	89	52.81%	95.50%
13	43	55.81%	93.02%
14	21	71.43%	95.23%
15	6	50.00%	100.00%
16	1	0.00%	0.00%

As it reads, there have been 21 teams to win 14 games in an NFL season and 15 of those teams produced a top-12 scoring running back (71.4 percent) with 20 of those teams producing a top-24 scorer (95.2 percent). The hit rate for running back production per win level is a linear line until the sample size shrinks. Combining the two tables paints a clearer picture as 77 percent of the top-12 scoring backs over that span have come from teams with seven or more wins even though teams with seven or more wins make up only 65 percent of the total win output for the field.

Overall scoring is one thing, but opportunity is another. Of teams with seven or fewer wins since the NFL merger, just 19.9 percent have had an individual running back hit 300 touches in a season with 40.7 percent reaching 250 touches. Of the 13 teams to finish under .500 in 2016, just two had a 300-touch back with six having an individual back hit 250 touches. This makes it much harder to hang your hat on a massive touch projection for someone like Leonard Fournette, although initial projections will feature him dominating touches in the Jacksonville backfield.

With offenses consistently expanding reliance on the passing game, more and more backs have been compartmentalized into offensive roles, which means more and more backs are finding fantasy viability. But it also means that more players are dependent on in-game climate to generate fantasy production.

Career Rushing vs Receiving Output

Player	RuPt/Gm	STD PT RU%	PPR RU%	RePt/Gm	STD PT REC%	PPR REC%
Adrian Peterson	14.28	88.45%	78.69%	3.78	11.55%	21.31%
Ameer Abdullah	4.54	68.37%	54.10%	3.67	31.63%	45.90%
Bilal Powell	3.96	65.61%	47.44%	4.36	34.39%	52.56%
C.J. Anderson	7.30	78.77%	65.90%	3.73	21.23%	34.10%
C.J. Prosise	3.87	52.73%	38.03%	6.30	47.27%	61.97%
Carlos Hyde	7.56	84.40%	72.26%	2.84	15.60%	27.74%
Charles Sims	3.17	42.12%	29.28%	7.04	57.88%	70.72%
Chris Ivory	7.52	89.60%	80.70%	1.75	10.40%	19.30%
Chris Thompson	2.18	44.82%	29.06%	5.19	55.18%	70.94%
Christine Michael	4.05	88.36%	76.49%	1.23	11.64%	23.51%
Damien Williams	1.01	33.18%	22.20%	3.25	66.82%	77.80%
Danny Woodhead	3.31	46.53%	33.10%	6.65	53.47%	66.90%
Darren McFadden	6.96	74.08%	58.20%	4.86	25.92%	41.80%
Darren Sproles	2.99	41.09%	27.72%	7.58	58.91%	72.28%
David Johnson	10.19	63.80%	51.81%	9.30	36.20%	48.19%
DeAndre Washington	4.19	83.14%	66.55%	2.04	16.86%	33.45%
DeMarco Murray	10.83	80.20%	64.60%	5.81	19.80%	35.40%
Derrick Henry	5.27	85.22%	74.74%	1.78	14.78%	25.26%
Devonta Freeman	8.01	69.39%	53.55%	6.80	30.61%	46.45%
Devontae Booker	5.33	70.90%	55.50%	3.97	29.10%	44.50%
Dion Lewis	2.44	59.04%	43.15%	3.11	40.96%	56.85%
Doug Martin	9.84	82.86%	69.98%	4.10	17.14%	30.02%
Duke Johnson	2.49	39.95%	25.19%	7.21	60.05%	74.81%
Eddie Lacy	9.44	78.91%	67.50%	4.45	21.09%	32.50%
Ezekiel Elliott	16.87	85.58%	77.17%	4.95	14.42%	22.83%
Frank Gore	9.69	79.24%	66.64%	4.73	20.76%	33.36%
Giovani Bernard	5.97	61.48%	45.39%	7.09	38.52%	54.61%
Isaiah Crowell	7.09	83.69%	71.46%	2.77	16.31%	28.54%
Jacquizz Rodgers	2.74	58.22%	39.69%	4.11	41.78%	60.31%
Jalen Richard	3.44	63.70%	47.71%	3.78	36.30%	52.29%
Jamaal Charles	9.55	72.33%	59.50%	6.32	27.67%	40.50%
James White	1.15	19.96%	12.86%	7.80	80.04%	87.14%
Jay Ajayi	8.33	89.24%	77.48%	2.42	10.76%	22.52%
Jeremy Hill	9.57	89.32%	79.23%	2.46	10.68%	20.77%
Jerick McKinnon	3.78	68.40%	49.31%	3.94	31.60%	50.69%
Jonathan Stewart	8.05	85.08%	74.41%	2.71	14.92%	25.59%
Jordan Howard	11.15	82.20%	71.84%	4.32	17.80%	28.16%
Kenneth Dixon	4.18	69.34%	49.02%	4.35	30.66%	50.98%
Lamar Miller	7.26	80.19%	65.57%	3.73	19.81%	34.43%
Lance Dunbar	0.89	41.70%	25.84%	2.46	58.30%	74.16%
Latavius Murray	7.73	84.33%	68.94%	3.44	15.67%	31.06%
LeGarrette Blount	8.06	95.21%	90.20%	0.86	4.79%	9.80%
LeSean McCoy	10.73	76.95%	62.19%	6.44	23.05%	37.81%
Le’Veon Bell	11.93	70.79%	54.97%	9.73	29.21%	45.03%
Mark Ingram	7.89	83.04%	69.09%	3.52	16.96%	30.91%
Marshawn Lynch	10.67	84.17%	72.66%	3.97	15.83%	27.34%
Matt Asiata	3.16	74.78%	56.41%	2.42	25.22%	43.59%
Matt Forte	9.35	68.96%	53.56%	8.02	31.04%	46.44%
Melvin Gordon	8.29	74.34%	59.01%	5.45	25.66%	40.99%
Mike Gillislee	6.63	91.55%	83.89%	1.26	8.45%	16.11%
Mike Tolbert	3.35	63.33%	48.81%	3.46	36.67%	51.19%
Paul Perkins	3.26	73.79%	59.38%	2.23	26.21%	40.63%
Rex Burkhead	1.32	59.68%	42.81%	1.64	40.32%	57.19%
Robert Kelley	7.09	88.23%	80.24%	1.75	11.77%	19.76%
Ryan Mathews	8.70	82.40%	68.49%	3.88	17.60%	31.51%
Shane Vereen	2.87	43.43%	30.14%	6.42	56.57%	69.86%
Spencer Ware	6.94	76.03%	65.35%	3.56	23.97%	34.65%
T.J. Yeldon	5.13	65.75%	46.49%	5.82	34.25%	53.51%
Terrance West	5.84	83.03%	69.86%	2.45	16.97%	30.14%
Tevin Coleman	5.81	69.36%	59.56%	3.78	30.64%	40.44%
Theo Riddick	1.27	23.82%	14.78%	7.11	76.18%	85.22%
Thomas Rawls	7.27	87.19%	77.74%	2.05	12.81%	22.26%
Todd Gurley	10.18	84.97%	71.59%	3.98	15.03%	28.41%
Ty Montgomery	3.10	51.09%	34.58%	5.69	48.91%	65.42%
Zach Zenner	3.17	74.79%	60.14%	2.04	25.21%	39.86%

If you’re wondering, the way to read the above the table is that Adrian Peterson averages 14.3 fantasy rushing points per game for his career, which in turn make up 88.5 percent of his standard scoring output and 78.7 percent of his PPR scoring. The receiving points per game listed are PPR scoring totals, but the standard scoring percentages for receiving do not include receptions. It’s not surprising that most of the best fantasy backs are neutral in terms of their output and you want those workhorse, multi-dimensional players on your roster because they aren’t dependent upon any specific game script. I don’t have the room to go over everyone above, but we’ll touch on a few things here.

Understanding fantasy archetypes is an overlooked element of team construction and fantasy analysis since we’re so focused on overall output instead of the ingredients that went into creating those points. Often, game conditions aren’t applied to analysis in what is creating fantasy output. One-dimensional backs tend to beat their initial draft cost, tilting scoring in their favor through touchdown production that bounces around week to week or carrying a floor in reception-based scoring through catch points alone, but are often misleading in how they can swing weeks in your direction. Having a stable floor matters for fantasy football, but your low ceiling/usable floor players in fantasy should be handled as component of roster versatility rather than as a weekly roster necessity.

‘Receiving only’ backs struggle to individually manipulate weeks because running back touchdown production just isn’t generated often or consistently enough through the passing game. Just nine running backs have had multiple years with at least four receiving touchdowns over the past decade and just one (Darren Sproles with four) has had more than a pair of such seasons. Circling back to the open, touchdowns are the almighty dollar in fantasy currency, and although predicting touchdowns carries extreme variance, we do know the archetypes of the players producing the most touchdowns and have a strong grasp on where touchdowns within an offense are created. A back that is more dependent on touchdown and rushing output has a better shot of increasing his workload and seeing opportunities present themselves in terms of elevating his fantasy season than his receiving-only counterpart. You’re more apt to see that “early down” archetype run into big fantasy-turning seasons than receiving-only options because the latter are rarely elevated to volume and touchdown roles even through injury. More times than not, those players remain in a similar role within their offense and for fantasy while a third running back gains fantasy relevancy through injury. There’s a time and place when you need a guy such as James White in your lineup, but when carving out a range of outcomes for a player, his archetype is less likely to turn your season completely around or elevate it, and that range of outcomes should be considered when using your mid to late round draft capital at the running back position when deciphering if a floor or ceiling swing is required.

David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell are the only backs here that average at least nine fantasy points in rushing and receiving output per game, which is why they carry the draft position they do. Both accrue their receiving in different ways. Johnson has averaged 11.5 yards per reception through two years and per Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards Database, Johnson’s 559 air yards in 2016 were 330 yards more than the next highest back (Duke Johnson) and the highest in his database for a running back in a season by an extremely wide margin. Air Johnson is essentially a replacement level receiver tacked onto a running back. Bell is a more traditional receiving back, predicated on offense and volume. After returning from suspension a year ago, Bell saw 19.9 percent of the Steelers’ targets. Those could be shaved down a bit with the return of Martavis Bryant, but Bell still averaged 15.3 percent of the Pittsburgh targets per game prior to 2016.

Devonta Freeman is the only running back with 1,000 yards rushing in each of the past two seasons, but he has been a steady source of receiving production in both campaigns. Only Theo Riddick has more games with four or more receptions (20) than Freeman’s 16 over the past two years and even while sharing opportunities with Tevin Coleman, Freeman managed seven such games. There’s reason to believe Freeman may have his touchdown totals sag with expected touchdown regression from the Atlanta offense, but with his versatility in performance, I expect any regression in that department to have a significantly reduced effect on Freeman’s fantasy season than it will for Coleman.

Due to his collegiate profile, Melvin Gordon’s receiving output feels overlooked. After catching just 22 passes for his career at Wisconsin, Gordon has 74 receptions in 27 NFL games. Gordon had at least 5.9 PPR receiving points in every one of his complete games without Danny Woodhead a year ago, with eight or more points from receiving only in eight of those 10 games. This is a big separator for Gordon ahead of Jay Ajayi and Jordan Howard.

Ajayi has taken the opposite track as a back that was highly involved in the passing game in college, but has yet to be utilized out of the backfield by the Dolphins. Ajayi was hardly involved in the passing game last year, catching one or fewer passes in eight of his 12 starts to close the season. He was carried by spike weeks on the ground, rushing for at least 200 yards in three different games, but Ajayi had seven games with fewer than 80 yards on the ground. Ajayi’s breakout shares many similarities to the one Todd Gurley had the year prior – carried by chunk games and breakaway runs -- which undoubtedly will scare some people away from his late first-round price tag.

Theo Riddick’s 133 receptions have paced the position over the past two seasons, and 85 percent of his PPR output over that span has come from receiving, which only trails James White. Detroit is a team predicated on being a pass-first offense and their schedule is full of potholes. I believe Riddick remains a better option at his price than Ameer Abdullah while both are active and one of the better roster-smoothing type of PPR options in drafts, but an injury to either elevates the other into a premier PPR-scoring position.

Speaking of White, his lasting image from 2016 was contending for Super Bowl MVP, but his situation in the New England offense isn’t altered that much heading into this season. White has 100 receptions over the past two seasons with just 70 rushing attempts and just eight games of reaching 50 yards from scrimmage. The Patriots have ranked first, third and first in percentage of plays while leading on the scoreboard over the past three seasons. Unless the Patriots find themselves chasing 25 points often, White stands to be an overvalued 2017 commodity.

Touches and Touchdowns

Those thoughts lead us into what matters most: touches and touchdowns. Below are the touch rate per game and touchdowns per touch for backs over their careers in comparison to 2016 as well as how dependent those backs have been on touchdown production to impact their fantasy output.

Player	TCH/GM	2016	TD/TCH%	2016	STD TD/PT%	PPR TD/PT%
Adrian Peterson	21.76	13.33	3.87%	0.00%	31.49%	28.02%
Ameer Abdullah	12.67	11.50	2.09%	4.35%	21.09%	16.69%
Bilal Powell	9.54	11.81	1.99%	2.65%	18.92%	13.68%
C.J. Anderson	12.45	18.00	3.88%	3.97%	31.26%	26.15%
C.J. Prosise	7.83	7.83	2.13%	2.13%	13.64%	9.84%
Carlos Hyde	14.00	18.77	3.44%	3.69%	32.27%	27.63%
Charles Sims	10.26	10.71	2.20%	2.67%	19.59%	13.62%
Chris Ivory	13.25	12.45	2.70%	2.19%	26.29%	23.68%
Chris Thompson	6.60	7.31	4.08%	4.27%	28.92%	18.75%
Christine Michael	7.65	11.33	3.52%	4.71%	28.66%	24.81%
Damien Williams	3.85	3.87	5.26%	10.34%	36.53%	24.44%
Danny Woodhead	8.66	12.50	4.16%	4.00%	29.18%	20.76%
Darren McFadden	15.29	6.75	2.12%	0.00%	21.26%	16.70%
Darren Sproles	11.27	9.73	4.35%	2.74%	28.84%	19.45%
David Johnson	17.38	23.31	5.99%	5.36%	38.28%	31.09%
DeAndre Washington	7.50	7.50	1.92%	1.92%	17.60%	14.08%
DeMarco Murray	20.12	21.63	2.85%	3.47%	25.94%	20.89%
Derrick Henry	8.20	8.20	4.07%	4.07%	32.36%	28.38%
Devonta Freeman	15.19	17.56	4.07%	4.63%	32.78%	25.30%
Devontae Booker	12.81	12.81	2.44%	2.44%	26.86%	21.02%
Dion Lewis	6.29	11.57	2.93%	0.00%	23.67%	17.30%
Doug Martin	19.89	19.75	2.21%	1.90%	22.82%	19.27%
Duke Johnson	9.72	7.88	1.03%	0.79%	9.25%	5.83%
Eddie Lacy	17.43	15.00	3.26%	0.00%	29.12%	24.91%
Ezekiel Elliott	23.60	23.60	4.52%	4.52%	32.72%	29.50%
Frank Gore	19.09	18.81	2.72%	2.66%	26.18%	22.02%
Giovani Bernard	14.02	13.00	2.60%	2.31%	22.76%	16.80%
Isaiah Crowell	12.48	14.88	3.34%	2.94%	30.20%	25.79%
Jacquizz Rodgers	8.55	14.20	1.94%	1.41%	19.89%	13.56%
Jalen Richard	7.00	7.00	2.68%	2.68%	20.81%	15.58%
Jamaal Charles	16.19	4.67	3.90%	7.14%	28.60%	23.53%
James White	5.36	6.19	6.29%	5.05%	34.66%	22.34%
Jay Ajayi	14.33	19.20	2.62%	2.78%	24.11%	20.93%
Jeremy Hill	15.53	16.20	4.11%	3.70%	36.40%	32.29%
Jerick McKinnon	9.90	13.47	1.69%	1.98%	17.86%	12.88%
Jonathan Stewart	14.41	17.38	3.19%	3.98%	28.49%	24.92%
Jordan Howard	18.73	18.73	2.49%	2.49%	20.89%	18.25%
Kenneth Dixon	9.83	9.83	2.54%	2.54%	24.86%	17.58%
Lamar Miller	14.05	21.36	2.66%	2.01%	25.31%	20.69%
Lance Dunbar	3.44	1.92	0.62%	4.00%	5.42%	3.36%
Latavius Murray	14.51	16.29	3.15%	5.26%	29.43%	24.06%
LeGarrette Blount	12.36	19.13	4.12%	5.88%	36.19%	34.29%
LeSean McCoy	19.49	18.93	3.20%	4.93%	27.22%	21.99%
Le’Veon Bell	24.15	28.00	2.73%	2.68%	23.57%	18.31%
Mark Ingram	14.13	15.69	3.27%	3.98%	29.27%	24.35%
Marshawn Lynch	18.87	N/A	3.46%	N/A	31.29%	27.02%
Matt Asiata	6.38	9.56	4.15%	3.92%	36.76%	27.73%
Matt Forte	20.67	17.71	2.60%	3.23%	24.03%	18.67%
Melvin Gordon	18.96	22.69	2.34%	4.07%	25.27%	20.06%
Mike Gillislee	7.39	7.33	7.36%	8.18%	43.80%	40.13%
Mike Tolbert	6.38	2.81	5.40%	2.22%	39.56%	30.49%
Paul Perkins	9.07	9.07	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Rex Burkhead	3.02	5.69	3.31%	2.20%	27.81%	19.95%
Robert Kelley	12.00	12.86	3.89%	3.89%	34.83%	31.67%
Ryan Mathews	15.85	12.92	2.93%	5.36%	27.24%	22.64%
Shane Vereen	8.02	8.80	3.89%	2.27%	28.39%	19.70%
Spencer Ware	12.19	17.64	3.35%	2.02%	27.66%	23.78%
T.J. Yeldon	14.74	12.00	1.26%	1.11%	14.45%	10.22%
Terrance West	12.50	14.19	2.32%	2.64%	25.39%	21.37%
Tevin Coleman	9.52	11.46	5.04%	7.38%	35.87%	30.81%
Theo Riddick	6.22	14.50	4.18%	4.14%	30.04%	18.64%
Thomas Rawls	12.64	13.56	2.78%	2.46%	26.50%	23.63%
Todd Gurley	19.69	20.06	2.80%	1.87%	28.02%	23.61%
Ty Montgomery	7.81	8.07	3.60%	2.48%	24.29%	16.44%
Zach Zenner	6.25	7.57	3.20%	3.77%	29.23%	23.51%

As mentioned when discussing Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman stands to suffer most of the combo when Atlanta comes back to the pack in terms of scoring this season. Coleman finished 14^th in standard points per game (12.2) and 13^th in PPR points per game (14.7), but finished 27^th in in yards from scrimmage per game (72.4) and 47^th in touches per game (11.5) at the position because Coleman scored 11 times on 7.4 percent of his touches, which ranked second at the position. He’s going to need a Freeman injury to pay off and beat his price tag this summer.

The only back who scored at a higher rate per touch than Coleman was Mike Gillislee. Gillislee has scored once every 14 carries over the past two seasons, and no running back ranks higher in percentage of scoring that has stemmed from touchdowns alone. That would be a neon sign for exposure to regression, but of course, the back who ranks second -- LeGarrette Blount -- is the man Gillislee is replacing in New England. We already covered how the Patriots are the premier destination for touchdown upside, and although Gillislee has a small sample of touches, he’s also shown the splash-play ability outside of being just a touchdown vulture. 15.8 percent of his runs went for 10 or more yards in 2016, the third highest rate for all backs with at least 100 carries.

Bringing up Melvin Gordon once again, his usage and opportunity once Danny Woodhead was injured was almost unprecedented. From Weeks 3-13 before Gordon suffered his own knee injury, Gordon had 87.3 percent of the Chargers’ rushing attempts and 53.6 percent of the team touches. For context, that would’ve been the third highest team rushing attempt rate in NFL history (Edgerrin James has the top two spots ever in 1999 and 2000 at 88.1 and 88.9 percent) while 2014 DeMarco Murray was at 53.7 percent of his team touches, the highest total of the past decade. That usage increased Gordon’s chances at injury that inevitably happened, but there’s not much in the way of Los Angeles using him to a high degree again in 2017. Gordon has a mountain of efficiency red flags and ran into a treasure trove of short yardage scoring opportunity that may be elusive to repeat, but his volume and underlying receiving output on a functional offense are a strong deodorant for those concerns.

2016 was supposed to be everything we were waiting for as Lamar Miller was finally going to be unshackled. Miller was given the workload we desired, but he was a less effective player in the process. In 14 games, he received a career-high 299 touches, but posted a career-low 4.2 yards per touch. He also saw a dip in scoring output and caught just 2.2 passes per game, his lowest total since 2013. Miller is still just 26 years old with three consecutive seasons of at least 1,200 yards from scrimmage, and D’Onta Foreman has already reported to OTAs overweight and been arrested. But Miller should be treated as more of a lower end RB1 rather than one who will post a smattering of huge weeks.

The past two tables are why it’s hard for me to latch onto someone like Duke Johnson, despite his high floor of receiving points. Johnson has scored on just three of his 291 career touches. Johnson has an out clause if Isaiah Crowell was to be injured, but with the lowly amount of touches he’s received through two seasons, and Cleveland being coerced into moving him around the offense to get him more touches, Johnson doesn’t have a strong checkpoint for a high ceiling without multiple doors opening for him.

I mentioned that receiving-only backs are potential traps because they hold such low ceilings, but if shopping for receiving backs that have shown actual touchdown upside among their receiving back peers, look toward Danny Woodhead. Woodhead is 32 years old and has essentially missed two of the past three years, but in his past three full seasons, he’s scored seven, eight and nine times and Kyle Juszczyk led the Ravens in targets and touchdowns inside of the 5-yard line over the past two years. I also mentioned that I believed James White would be overvalued given his Super Bowl performance and how New England controlling games caps his touches, but at least White has shown to have touchdown upside per touch, ranking just behind Gillislee in touchdowns per touch for their respective careers. When looking at receiving-first backs, make sure to chase the ones who add a few more touchdowns onto their totals over the pure yardage-dependent options.

The Bills scored what looks to be an unsustainable amount of rushing touchdowns a year ago and LeSean McCoy’s performance played a role in that touchdown spike. After scoring just 10 times over the previous two seasons, McCoy scored 14 touchdowns in 2016 and scored on 4.9 percent of his touches after scoring on 2.9 percent over his previous career. McCoy has had a major touchdown spike happen once before in his career -- scoring 20 times in 2011 -- then scored 21 times over the next three seasons. While we can expect McCoy’s touchdown totals to slip back into the single digits toward his career mean, his career mean still has been a rocksteady RB1.

Don’t Run From All Regression

As is the case with McCoy, not all regression is a detriment to a player’s outlook, and if we should be expecting touchdown recoil from a player, then we have to look toward David Johnson. Johnson hit many unreal benchmarks last season and -- apologies to Le’Veon Bell, who is right there -- is the closest thing we’ve had to an all-world fantasy back since LaDainian Tomlinson in the mid 2000s. Johnson has now started 19 non-Week 17 games and has been a top-11 PPR scorer in 17 of those games and the RB1 overall in those weeks seven times.

Johnson scored on 5.4 percent of his touches in 2016 after scoring on 7.5 percent as a rookie. His 33 touchdowns are the third most for a player through his first two years in the league, trailing Eric Dickerson (34) and Edgerrin James (35), and Johnson is just the eighth running back to hit the end zone at least 30 times before his third NFL season. Those previous seven backs averaged 8.7 touchdowns in their third seasons with only Barry Sanders increasing his touchdown total in all three of his opening three seasons from that group.

Johnson played the second most snaps (964) in a season for a running back since Pro Football Focus began charting a decade ago, and became just the 10^th back in league history to score 400 PPR points in a season. It’s a given that we should anticipate some descendance from the fantasy mountain he has established, but just how much?

400 Point PPR Backs in NFL History

Player	Year	PPR Rank	N+	Pts/Gm	N+	TotTD	N+	YFS/Gm	N+	Tch/Gm	N+
Emmitt Smith	1995	1	5	26.2	18.5	25	15	134.3	96.9	27.4	24.9
Marshall Faulk	1999	1	1	25.1	33.0	12	26	151.8	156.4	21.3	23.9
Marshall Faulk	2000	1	1	33.0	30.2	26	21	156.4	153.4	23.9	24.5
Marshall Faulk	2001	1	10	30.2	20.4	21	10	153.4	106.4	24.5	20.9
Priest Holmes	2002	1	1	31.6	27.9	24	27	163.4	131.9	27.4	24.6
Priest Holmes	2003	1	18	27.9	26.6	27	15	131.9	134.9	24.6	26.9
LaDainian Tomlinson	2003	2	2	27.6	22.3	17	18	148.1	118.4	25.8	26.1
LaDainian Tomlinson	2006	1	2	30.1	23.0	31	18	145.2	121.8	25.3	23.4
Steven Jackson	2006	2	15	26.0	16.7	16	6	145.9	106.1	27.3	22.9
David Johnson	2016	1	TBD	25.5	TBD	20	TBD	132.4	TBD	23.3	TBD

Quite impressive company to keep, and although every player except for Faulk in 1999-2000 lost fantasy production per game, all remained elite scorers and producers as five of the nine players finished first or second in overall scoring following up their 400-point season with only Holmes in 2004 (eight games played) and Jackson in 2007 (12 games) finishing outside of RB1 status. Even if Johnson loses the average 15 percent output per game of the above group of ultrabacks, we’re still talking about a 20 points per game fantasy asset.