The goal of this regression-centric space is to tell fantasy football folks which of their borderline fantasy options are running particularly hot or particularly cold, to use a little technical language.
Every week during the regular season I’ll highlight players whose usage and opportunity doesn’t quite match their production. That might look like a running back scoring touchdowns at an unsustainable clip or a pass catcher putting up big stat lines while working as a rotational player in his offense. It could also look like a pass catcher seeing gobs of air yards and targets without much to show for it. Things of that nature.
👉 Some stats I’ll focus on weekly in the Regression Files: Rush yards over expected, targets per route, air yards, air yards per target, red zone targets, green zone targets, quarterback touchdown rate, and expected touchdowns. A lot of this regression stuff, as you probably know, comes down to touchdowns — specifically, predicting touchdowns (or lack thereof).
I’ll (mostly) ignore every-week fantasy options who you’re going to play whether they’re running hot or cold, or somewhere in between. My goal is to make this column as actionable as possible for all fantasy formats. Telling you to keep playing Joe Burrow during a cold streak doesn’t strike me as actionable.
Let’s start today with a quick analysis of Wan’Dale Robinson and his stunningly productive first two weeks of the regular season.
Robinson is sixth among wide receivers in both receptions and receiving yards and you’re reeling. Nothing makes sense anymore. Existential dread creeps in with every Wan’Dale catch, every elite performance. I get it.
Robinson in Week 2’s barn burner against the Cowboys caught eight of his ten targets for 142 yards and a touchdown. Usually eight grabs for Wan’Dale translates to 50 yards, maybe 60 on a good day. But this year -- so far -- is different for the once-time PPR scam artist known as Wan’Dale. Over the past two seasons Robinson has averaged a paltry 4.8 air yards per target; through Week 2 he’s averaging 11 air yards per target. Somehow the diminutive wideout has 28 percent of the Giants’ air yards. Like I said: Nothing makes sense anymore.
Robinson is seeing a target on one quarter of his routes. That, somehow, is nothing new. The Giants have always been intent on feeding him the ball. Robinson has seen 34 percent of the Giants’ first-read targets, per Fantasy Points Data (Malik Nabers leads with 46 percent). The difference in 2025: This season Robinson is seeing some intermediate and downfield chances along with the short-area PPR scammy stuff. It’s the Holy Grail of wideout combinations. It’s what Nabers has. It’s what Tyreek Hill used to have. It’s what Marvin Harrison, Jr. has never had.
Nothing about Robinson’s profile through two weeks screams negative regression. There will be some, of course, because the Giants aren’t going to be forced into a wildly fantasy-friendly back-and-forth game flow with a high-powered offense every week, like they were in Week 2. Unless his usage changes dramatically in the coming weeks — and there’s no reason to think it will — Robinson needs to find his way into your 12-team PPR lineups, existential panic be damned.
📈 Positive Regression Candidates
Chris Olave (NO)
That Spencer Rattler quote about his job being to feed Olave targets rings hollow today after a slow start for the Saints WR1, who has 108 scoreless yards on 13 receptions through Week 2.
I’m chiming in to tell you Olave should remain in your 12-team league rosters after drawing a target on 30 percent of his pass routes and seeing 28 percent of the Saints’ first-read targets, according to Fantasy Points Data. That’s a top-20 rate (Juwan Johnson leads all Saints pass catchers in first-read target, for whatever that’s worth).
Olave is being used in fairly creative ways so far this season. He’s operated from the slot on 40 percent of his routes and has a somewhat scammy average depth of target (9.8). The Saints, meanwhile, are operating at the league’s fastest offensive pace and Rattler has the league’s fourth most drop backs (89). Olave can regress based on sheer volume alone.
Jordan Mason (MIN)
The top line story here: Aaron Jones sustained his annual September hamstring injury and will miss significant time.
It’s not that Mason is dominating carries in the Vikings backfield. He’s not. In fact, he has 24 rushes to 13 for Jones through two games. The two backs have largely split pass routes and Jones has one more target than Mason. That’s all tossed out the window now.
Consider this your assurance that Mason — a spreadsheet hero in 2024 — is actually quite good. Through Week 2, Mason has the league’s third highest rate of missed tackles forced per rush and ranks 17th out of 50 qualifying RBs in rush yards after contact. In other words, he’s being efficient with his opportunities. The Vikings are passing at a 53 percent rate in neutral game script, 11th lowest in the league.
With some decent rushing matchups in the offing, Mason should get there for his fantasy drafters. This week he matches up with a Bengals defense allowing a hefty 2.2 yards after contact per rush. It’s Mason szn, more and more are saying so.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS)
Probably you don’t need me to tell you to play JCM in Week 3 after Austin Ekeler tragically tore his Achilles last week. I know JCM’s Week 2 box score was hideous though (17 rush yards), so here’s a case that he might be Actually Good.
The spreadsheets adore Croskey-Merritt through Week 2. Only RJ Harvey and Trey Benson — who will cook if given the chance this season — have a higher rate of rush yards over expected than the Washington back we call Bill. JCM is fifth among 105 qualifying running backs in rush yards after contact per attempt. The Commanders’ offensive line might be pretty good at the run blocking thing: Only five teams have created more rush yards before contact this season.
JCM will see a bump in snaps, carries, and maybe even routes in Ekeler’s absence. He needs to start in every 12-team format. You knew that though.
Terry McLaurin (WAS)
You knew what you were getting when you took McLaurin in your fantasy draft: A guy who could win your week or give you next to nothing, depending on whether he converted his sparse targets into long gains and touchdowns, as he did in 2024.
So far McLaurin hasn’t done any of that as Washington’s WR2 behind Deebo Samuel. McLaurin does have a team-high 33 percent of Washington’s air yards though. If/when Jayden Daniels -- who might not play in Week 3 with a knee issue -- connects on a long ball, it’s likely going to be McLaurin on the receiving end. He has that role locked down.
The peripherals are quite ugly for Terry through Week 2. He’s been targeted on 16 percent of his pass routes while Samuel has seen a look on 25 percent of his routes. McLaurin’s 14.1 air yards per target is a recipe for a boom-bust fantasy option. That’s what McLaurin is — just like 2024. I think he can still be treated in a flex in 12-team leagues if Daniels starts in Week 3. Marcus Mariota under center would destroy pass volume for Commanders pass catchers.
Russell Wilson (NYG)
I took exceedingly little pleasure in mentioning Russ in last week’s Regression Files. I once again have no choice but to tell you Wilson is the good kind of regression candidate after his 450-yard outburst against Dallas in Week 2.
How can this be, you ask, madder than you’ve ever been in your whole life. Well, here’s the thing about Mr. Unlimited: He now has 14 inside-the-20 pass attempts this season and exactly zero touchdowns to show for it. Only Bryce Young has more red zone attempts through Week 2. Russ leads the NFL with 11 inside-the-ten passes. He has zero TDs on those throws.
He’s being aggressive so far. Only four quarterbacks are averaging a higher intended air yards per attempt than Wilson (New York leads the NFL with 718 air yards). His air-yard-to-the-sticks profile — a very wonky thing, to be sure — is solid through two games. Whatever he’s doing, he’s not checking down.
Also, the Giants are sorta pass heavy and fun? It’s weird, I know. But so far that is the case. You could do worse than Russ in superflex formats going forward. He’s not going to deliver 30-plus fantasy points for you but more touchdowns could (easily) be on their way.
Elic Ayomanor (TEN)
This is just a follow up on Ayomanor after the rookie wideout was featured in this space headed into Week 2. He’s something of the Real Deal in the Titans offense for now. Ayomanor leads the Titans in a 27 percent targets per route run rate and has a team-leading 42 percent of Cam Ward’s air yards through two games. He had four grabs for 56 yards and a touchdown last week against the Rams on an utterly disgusting throw from Ward, who plays like Patrick Mahomes when Mahomes was still good.
In leagues with multiple flex spots, you could do far worse than to start Ayomanor. That he’s run a route on just 65 percent of Ward’s drop backs shouldn’t dissuade you too much. I could see his role growing in the coming weeks because, see, he’s good. There’s definitely a scenario in which he becomes the team’s No. 1 receiver. Shoutout to my fellow Calvin Ridley drafters (Ridley has 23 percent of the Titans’ air yards and has been targeted on 22 percent of his routes). We fell for it again.
Tyquan Thornton (KC)
In the Worthy-less Chiefs offense, Thornton is gobbling up air yards. Only CeeDee Lamb and Malik Nabers have more air yards through Week 2, incredibly. Patrick Mahomes missed Thornton on a wide open would-be long score in the team’s loss to the Eagles last week. So it goes.
Thornton has taken in 53 percent of KC’s air yards this season. Hollywood Brown is second with 21 percent. That’s real-deal downfield domination. One day -- maybe this week against a bad Giants secondary -- it’ll pay off for Thornton and his ridiculous 30 air yards per target.
📉 Negative Regression Candidates
Troy Franklin (DEN) (and Marvin Mims)
Franklin is a tough regression nut to crack, as my grandfather used to say. He has a respectable 15 targets through two games while running 68 percent of the Broncos’ routes and being targeted on a high 29 percent of those routes. He has 28 percent of the Broncos’ air yards, trailing only Courtland Sutton (40 percent). Franklin had eight grabs for 89 yards and a touchdown in Week 2 against the Colts, in case you missed it.
The whole Marvin Mims Thing is collapsing on itself again. Mims has run a route on just 42 percent of Bo Nix’s drop backs through two weeks (Mims had 24 yards and a touchdown in Week 2; whatever). He’s been targeted on a forgettable 19 percent of his routes and he’s averaging a bleak 2.8 yards after the catch per reception. None of it is good. All that summertime smoke about Mims being a full-time player was just that: Smoke. I’m choking. Maybe you are too.
It seems for now that Franklin, operating primarily from the slot, is Denver’s WR2 behind Sutton. So it goes. Honestly I wasn’t sure where to put Franklin in this week’s column. I think he’s usable in 12-team leagues but 89 yards and a score should not be the weekly expectation.
Dyami Brown (JAC)
While Brian Thomas considers a new career in a new town and Travis Hunter becomes invisible when he’s not playing Colorado State at 1 a.m. eastern on ESPN3, Brown went off in Week 2 to the tune of five catches, 57 yards, and a touchdown.
It’s not going to last. Maybe you knew that. Brown through two games has run a route on 70 percent of Jacksonville’s drop backs. His targets per route stands at a pedestrian 20 percent. In Week 2 that fell to 19 percent. This is a long way of saying Brown is getting away with it for now. He could function as the Jaguars’ No. 2 wideout behind Thomas though. Hunter’s lack of involvement, his 7.1 average depth of target, and his nonexistent after the catch production might make one question whether he ever had the profile of a truly elite NFL receiver.
Ricky Pearsall (SF)
I couldn’t shake the concern this offseason that Pearsall was not a target commander in college and certainly wasn’t a target commander in his shortened rookie season.
He’s still not commanding targets, even with George Kittle sidelined. Through two games he’s seen a target on a mere 19 percent of his targets. With Mac Jones under center in Week 2, Pearsall saw a target on 14 percent of his routes. Pearsall’s 80 percent route rate leaves something to be desired too. Jauan Jennings, meanwhile, is being targeted on 27 percent of his routes.
Pearsall isn’t good. He can still be serviceable in 12-team leagues but dreams about a top-12 season are very much over.
Quentin Johnston (LAC)
Johnston now has three touchdown grabs on eight catches this season. He’s scored a touchdown once every 4.5 targets through Week 2. You know and I know that won’t last.
Johnston has seen a target on 19 percent of his pass routes so far. That’s actually (much) higher than Ladd McConkey, one of the most disappointing fantasy players of 2025, but not even close to Keenan Allen, who’s seeing a target on 29 percent of his routes. Just know Johnston’s touchdown scoring can’t last.
Hunter Renfrow (CAR)
The nation is coming to grips with Renfrow somehow scoring not one, but two touchdowns in Week 2 against the Cardinals. He hadn’t scored a touchdown since 2022. The guy was cut by the very team that was forced to bring him back when they traded Adam Thielen to the Vikings and immediately lost Jalen Coker for the first month of the season. So it goes.
Renfrow benefited from wild drop back volume in Week 2 during the Panthers’ furious second half comeback attempt against an Arizona team that refused to try to win the ballgame. Bryce Young is not always going to log 59 drop backs and the Carolina offense is not always going to be passing at a 65 percent neutral clip.
Renfrow has run a route on 84 percent of Young’s drop backs this season. That’s good. What’s less good is Renfrow commanding a target on 17 percent of his routes and never being the first-read target. It means he’s getting leftover throws when Young can’t find Tetoroia McMillan. Usually that’s not a sustainable production model in fantasy. That doesn’t mean, of course, that Renfrow won’t be playable in 14-team leagues in which upwards of 60 wideouts are started every week.
If Carolina’s defense is as bad as it appears — the Panthers have given up the NFL’s third highest rate of scoring drives — Young and McMillan and Renfrow could be chasing points at a pass-heavy clip all year long.
