Quarterback
Start: Jared Goff, Lions
Goff is fourth in the NFL in yards, eighth in touchdowns, and gets a great matchup with the Bears this week. Chicago’s secondary ranks 27th in EPA per dropback allowed and has given up the eighth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The Lions have a 23.5-point team total this week. That’s the same as the Ravens and Bills.
Start: Jordan Love, Packers
Love has been absolutely dealing for more than a month.
Jordan Love 📈📈📈
— NFL (@NFL) December 7, 2023
(via @NextGenStats) pic.twitter.com/I1qSsgoOzE
Since the team’s Week 6 bye, he ranks sixth in EPA per dropback and 10th in CPOE. The film watchers at Pro Football Focus have also noticed a difference as his passing grade is up to 84.6 over that stretch of games. Love is averaging 19.4 fantasy points per game since his bye. That would make him the QB10 on the season.
Sit: Geno Smith, Seahawks
Smith has faced three of the top five defenses in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this year. He finished as the QB17, QB28, and QB30 in those games. He threw two touchdowns to four interceptions and was sacked 11 times. Smith gets a rematch with the 49ers—who are one of the three aforementioned teams—this week. In a brutal matchup, Geno is a clear fade.
Sit: Matthew Stafford, Rams
Speaking of bad matchups, Stafford gets a Baltimore defense that ranks second in EPA per dropback allowed and has given up the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in the league. The Ravens have given up one 20-point game this year. The Rams have also turned into a run-first team over the second half of the season to date.
Since Week 7, they have a negative seven percent pass rate over expected. Stafford, on a run-first offense versus a punishing defense, is not on the streaming radar this week.
Running Back
Start: Gus Edwards, Ravens
After opening as five-point favorites, the spread in the Baltimore/LA game has ballooned to seven. Baltimore should score plenty of points and will likely be salting away a lead in the second half. The value of Edwards’ role as the Ravens’ goal line back can’t be understated either. He ranks fourth in the NFL in carries inside the five and trails only Jalen Hurts in goal line touchdowns.
Start: Chuba Hubbard, Panthers
Since taking over the starting role in Week 6, Hubbard has averaged 17.7 touches for 73 yards and .6 touchdowns per game. He has three RB1 performances plus another two RB2 outings. Hubbard is coming off a career-high in carries (25) and gets a defense that has faced the seventh-lowest pass rate over expected this year.
Sit: Devin Singletary, Texans
In Week 13, Dameon Pierce out-carried Singletary 15-8 in a game where the Texans took the lead five minutes in and never relinquished that advantage. Singletary remained on the field for passing situations but has been replaced by Pierce on early downs. Houston gets the Jets this week. The Jets have faced the lowest pass rate over expected in the league this year. Pierce could have made the start list and Singletary should remain on fantasy benches until further notice.
Sit: D’Andre Swift, Eagles
Swift is coming off his lowest snap share since Week 1. He took the field for 42 percent of his team’s snaps. His previous low was 54 percent. His 46 percent carry share was the third-lowest of his season and his 30 percent route rate was the second-lowest. After a hot start to the season, Swift has one 15-point game over his past six contests. With Jalen Hurts stealing all of the goal line touchdowns and Kenneth Gainwell taking some targets, Swift has fallen to the back of the RB2 ranks. He is still a viable fantasy option, but fantasy managers shouldn’t be afraid to bench him anymore.
Wide Receiver
Start: Elijah Moore, Browns
Moore’s role has hit an upswing in recent weeks. Over his past three games, he is up to a 22 percent target share and a 37 percent air yards share. In his first game of the year, Joe Flacco threw more air yards (534) than any quarterback has in a single game this season. Moore, in turn, accomplished the same feat for receivers.
Most Air Yards In Any Game This Season
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) December 5, 2023
1. Elijah Moore, Week 13 (257)
2. AJ Brown, Week 4 (250)
3. Tank Dell, Week 9 (239)
4. Tyreek Hill, Week 1 (237) pic.twitter.com/gEuKIdzxJM
Amari Cooper also went down with a concussion and may not play in Week 14. With Flacco under center and Cooper’s status in doubt, Moore is ascending to WR2 status for Week 14.
Start: Rashee Rice, Chiefs
Rice is coming off a season-high route rate (70 percent) and the second-highest target share (29 percent) of his career. His second-highest route rate and highest target share came two weeks ago. He leads the Chiefs—including Travis Kelce—in yards per route run (2.41), yards per target (9.1), and targets per route run (.26). Rice has proven to be the Chiefs’ best wide receiver time and time again and Andy Reid appears to be recognizing that with an increased role.
Sit: Adam Thielen, Panthers
Thielen appears to be running out of steam and defenses have adjusted to him being the only receiver of note on the Panthers’ roster. Over the first eight weeks of the season, Thielen averaged .25 targets per route run and 2.04 yards per route run. Since Week 8, his TPRR is down to .18 and his YPRR sits at .89. His slowing combined with the lack of any progress from Bryce Young has Thielen nearing the WR4 range.
Sit: Tee Higgins, Bengals
Jake Browning shockingly eviscerated the Jaguars in Week 13 and it simply didn’t matter for Higgins, who was playing in his first game since Week 9. He earned an eight percent target share and caught three passes for 36 yards. His role in a post-Burrow offense is unclear at best, and it’s safe to assume Browning will come back to Earth versus the Colts. The combo makes Higgins a fade until he proves he can earn targets in this version of the Cincy offense.
Tight End
Start: Isaiah Likely, Ravens
The Ravens are tied for the sixth-highest team total this week and Likely is in a great spot to put some numbers on the board after two quiet weeks. Likely has run a route on 86 percent of Lamar Jackson’s dropbacks over his past two games. His opponent, the Rams, has given up the third-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Likely is straddling the TE1/2 border this week.
Start: Kyle Pitts, Falcons
I said I would never do this again. I lied. Pitts returned to his early-season role in Week 13, running a route on 90 percent of his team’s dropbacks while logging a 32 percent target share. He also accounted for 40 percent of Atlanta’s air yards. Arthur Smith didn’t even consider using him as a traditional tight end, lining him up out wide or in the slot for all but one of his routes. Pitts ranks as the TE12 for me this week, putting him ahead of any streaming option you will find off the wire.
Sit: Tyler Conklin, Jets
Conklin earned nine targets in Week 13. If that could be expected to hold, Conklin would be a great streaming option. The bad news is that Zach Wilson is back under center.
Conklin has seen nearly a two-point dip in PPR production when Wilson has played over the past two years. Most importantly, his targets have dipped by 51 percent.
Sit: Brevin Jordan, Texans
Jordan was a popular streaming option for Week 13 after Dalton Schultz was ruled out. As of the posting of this article, Schultz didn’t practice on Thursday and looks unlikely to play on Friday. Jordan stepped in to run a route on just 69 percent of the Texans’ passing plays. He was targeted on 21 percent of his routes, allowing him to amass a 19 percent target share, but I doubt he will repeat such a strong role. Jordan had never earned a target share over 15 percent before last week, and even those games were rare.