Quarterback
Start: C.J. Stroud, Texans
Stroud is an every-week starter and a QB1 barring a particularly difficult matchup going forward. He ranks fourth in the NFL in yards and 10th in touchdowns. The only player in NFL history with more passing yards through their first four games is Cam Newton. Stroud gets a date with a middling Atlanta defense this week.
Start: Zach Wilson, Jets
Hear me out. The Broncos defense is bad...like, really bad. In fact, they are so awful that, if their current pace continues, they will shatter numerous records for poor defensive play. Denver is on pace to allow 10 more passing touchdowns than any other team in NFL history. They are also on pace for a top-15 season in passing yards allowed. The Broncos rank last in EPA per dropback and yards per attempt allowed.
Zach Wilson was better than he's ever been tonight, but I have no idea what got into him on this drive. This is a legit "best quarterback in the league" type of sequence. Couldn't believe my eyes. pic.twitter.com/VrLekjJctW
— Matt Infield (@Matt_Infield) October 2, 2023
Wilson coming off his best game ever by Pro Football Focus passing grade (min. 25 dropbacks) and Quarterback Rating. Week 4 was his first multi-score game without an interception.
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Sit: Daniel Jones, Giants
Through four games, Jones ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per attempt and PFF passing grade. He is last in the league in EPA per dropback after an 11-sack performance versus the Seahawks. Vegas has the Giants with a dreadful, 18.75 implied team total.
Sit: Dak Prescott, Cowboys
Prescott and the Cowboys have a 20.25 implied team total this week. That is the same as the Cardinals and lower than the Jets and Falcons. Vegas does not like the Cowboys’ odds of scoring points on the road against the No. 6 defense in EPA per dropback allowed.
The Cowboys are also doing their part to keep Prescott’s passing numbers down with a negative pass rate over expected. On a run-first offense in a bad spot, Prescott is an easy fade.
Running Back
Start: Breece Hall, Jets
It’s happening.
Saleh on Breece Hall: "There is no pitch count with him anymore." #Jets
— Rich Cimini (@RichCimini) October 4, 2023
Hall ranks second in the NFL in Next Gen’s rush yards over expected per attempt and PFF’s yards after contact per carry. Dalvin Cook, on the other hand, ranks 41st and 48th in two metrics. The Broncos have allowed seven rushing touchdowns this year and are 31st in rush EPA per attempt and yards per carry allowed.
Start: Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots
The reports of Stevenson’s demise were greatly exaggerated. Before Week 4, NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that Ezekiel Elliott would get “starter’s reps” versus the Cowboys. Instead, Stevenson out-carried him 14-6 and saw 16 total touches. Stevenson’s efficiency remains a concern, but he is averaging 18 touches per game and hasn’t seen fewer than 16 touches once. We’re chasing volume at running back and Stevenson is a workhorse.
Sit: Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions
The Lions are (understandably) feeding David Montgomery. In two full games, Montgomery racked up 53 carries for 195 yards and four touchdowns. Gibbs has only seen a notable number of carries with Montgomery on the bench.
Gibbs isn’t forcing the issue in Detroit either. Montgomery has a slight edge over him in PFF’s rush yards over expected model. Until his usage changes, he can’t be played.
Sit: Tyler Allgeier, Falcons
After seeing 31 carries in the first two weeks of the season, things appear to be coming to an end for Allgeier. He has 14 carries over the past two weeks. His snap share has tumbled from 50 percent through Week 2 to 28 percent in the following pair of games. Allgeier still has value as a handcuff to Bijan Robinson, but his days as a standalone fantasy option are over.
Wide Receiver
Start: Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard, Jets
If we’re firing up Zach Wilson this week, you better believe we are starting his receivers. Garrett Wilson is an obvious start. He has a 31 percent target share and a 39 percent air yards share. But Lazard is a sneakier option for teams that need a FLEX play in the first week of byes. He has run a route on 96 percent of his team’s dropbacks this year and has a 17 percent target share.
Start: Tank Dell, Texans
Dell’s down Week 4—one catch for 16 yards—was simply the product of Nico Collins stealing the spotlight. Collins was targeted on 38 percent of his routes and earned a 35 percent target share. Dell’s underlying usage was completely unchanged. He ran a route on 82 percent of C.J. Stroud’s dropbacks, lined up primarily out wide, and had a 10.7 aDOT. That’s nearly identical to his usage from Weeks 2 and 3. Keep Dell in your lineups despite the quiet performance last week.
Sit: Skyy Moore, Chiefs
Moore has been a hold based on his route rate and proximity to the league’s best quarterback, but Week 4 may have finally made him a drop. His route rate dropped to 50 percent after falling to 59 percent in the previous week. Without a prominent role, Moore will struggle to produce fantasy points.
Sit: Drake London, Falcons
Per PFF’s expected fantasy points model, London is the WR46 in expected fantasy points. In reality, he is the WR50 in PPR points. No team is targeting their wide receivers less often than the Falcons and no team has a lower pass rate over expected.
Tight End
Start: Tyler Higbee, Rams
The Rams, on the other hand, are top-10 in PROE. They have been playing slow in neutral game script but up their pace substantially when playing from behind. They lead the NFL in seconds per play when trailing by a touchdown or more. Higbee has run a route on 86 percent of Matthew Stafford’s dropbacks this year and has a 15 percent target share.
Start: Dalton Kincaid, Bills
Kincaid has been operating as a part-time, de facto WR3 for the Bills this year, but that changed in Week 4. He ran a route on 79 percent of Josh Allen’s dropbacks and earned a 17 percent target share. In turn, Dawson Knox’s route participation fell below 50 percent. That could have been a product of the Bills’ matchup, but at a position as desolate as tight end, I’d rather be early on starting Kincaid than a week late.
Sit: Dalton Schultz, Texans
Schultz’s 3/42/1 receiving line in Week 4 was the veteran tight end’s best mark as a Texan, but the underlying usage continued to worsen. He ran a route on less than half of C.J. Stroud’s dropbacks. His route rate has fallen in every week since his debut with Houston in Week 1.
Sit: Jake Ferguson, Cowboys
Like Schultz, Ferguson’s Week 4 outing was his best of the year. He caught seven balls for 77 yards. Also like Schultz, his usage was less than ideal. Ferguson ran a route on 67 percent of the Cowboys’ dropbacks. His route rate of 58 percent ranks 27th among tight ends. In a low-scoring affair with the 49ers, this is a spot to keep Ferguson on the bench.
