The fantasy playoffs are underway and every start or sit decision could change the course of your fantasy season. With everything on the line, these are my biggest stands and fades for Week 15.
▶ Quarterback
Start: Brock Purdy, 49ers
Vegas isn’t just buying the 49ers this week. Sportsbooks are head over heels for Purdy and Co. Their 28.5-point implied team total trails only the Rams. They should have no issues racking up points against the Titans, and Tennessee tends to give up scoring through the air. The Titans rank 22nd in EPA per rush allowed and 29th in EPA per dropback. This disparity has led opponents to target them with a +3% pass rate over expected. All in, Tennessee has given up the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year. Purdy should break his two-game slump on Sunday.
Start: Sam Darnold, Seahawks
Much like Purdy, the spreadsheets and Sportsbooks are aligned on Seattle. They will score points in droves this week. Vegas has Seattle with a 28.25 implied team total. The Colts’ pass defense has actually been solid this year, ranking 14th in EPA per play. However, they haven’t been awfully successful rushing the passer. They rank 22nd in pressure rate. Darnold, in turn, has been elite when not pressured. His 9.9 YPA without pressure leads the league. He has 14 touchdowns and five picks from a clean pocket. PFF has graded him as a top-five passer without pressure.
Sit: Justin Herbert, Chargers
The Chargers are done cutting Herbert loose as a passer. Joe Alt went down with a season-ending injury in Week 9. From Week 10 onward, the Chargers have a -6% PROE.
Herbert hasn’t attempted more than 33 passes or completed more than 20 since Alt went down. He is averaging 148 yards, one passing touchdown, and a pitiful 11 fantasy points per game over the past month. In a low-scoring road game versus the Chiefs, don’t expect much to change this week.
Sit: Bo Nix, Broncos
Nix has posted four QB1 performances this year. Three of them have come against bottom-eight defenses in EPA per play allowed. By fantasy points allowed, three of his QB1 games have come against the three easiest matchups in the league. He gets a Packers defense this week that is average by EPA per play but much more stout by fantasy points allowed. Green Bay is giving up the seventh-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Vegas agrees with this assessment, giving Nix’s Broncos a 20.25 team total. That is lower than the Panthers and Vikings.
▶ Running Back
Start: Kenneth Walker, Seahawks
Game script is the only thing standing in the way of a dominant Sam Darnold performance this week. On the other hand, it will be working in Walker’s favor, with the Seahawks currently projected to win by 13.5 points. When playing from ahead, Seattle has run the football on 54 percent of their plays. That rate is the fifth-highest in the NFL this year. Walker is also putting some distance between himself and Zach Charbonnet as of late. He has out-carried Charbonnet 50-38 over the past month. If Walker is ever going to get on track, it’s going to happen this week.
Start: Travis Etienne, Jaguars
Speaking of big favorites, the Jags are projected to win by 13.5 points as well. Unlike Seattle, there may not even be a committee in Duval anymore. Bhayshul Tuten committed a fumble on his second carry of the day in Week 14. He did not touch the ball again on Sunday. Travis Etienne went on to rack up 20 carries for 74 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Now Etienne gets a New York defense that has given up the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Sit: Ashton Jeanty, Raiders
Jeanty made this article as a sit last week. After running for 30 yards at three yards per carry, not much has changed heading into a date with Philly. Jeanty currently ranks 29th in yards after contact per carry and 43rd in breakaway rate. NFL Next Gen has him with the sixth-lowest rush yards over expected per attempt. To make things worse, the Raiders have the lowest team total of the week at a pathetic 13.5 points. They are 11.5-point dogs to the Eagles.
Sit: Tony Pollard, Titans
Pollard has scored more than 14 PPR points twice this year. Both games came in Titans wins. They have only won twice in 2025. The Titans’ latest win propelled Pollard to 161 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 25 attempts.
It was both his best outing of the season and a career day. While fantasy managers undoubtedly appreciated the spike week, don’t expect an encore. The Titans are projected to lose by 12.5 on Sunday.
▶ Wide Receiver
Start: Zay Flowers, Ravens
Lamar Jackson returned to the lineup in Week 9. Since then, Flowers has a 27 percent target share with 28 percent of the Ravens’ air yards. His target share during that run ranks inside the top 10 among all wideouts. Flowers hasn’t always cashed in on that role. He notably busted when the Ravens faced the Bengals two weeks ago. However, the Bengals should be a great matchup for him. Flowers ranks 12th among receivers in YAC per catch (5.7) and the Bengals give up more YAC (7.1) than any other defense.
Start: Troy Franklin, Broncos
Franklin has been slowly phased out of the offense in recent weeks. While that might continue down the road, fantasy managers will get a chance to start him versus the Packers on Sunday with Pat Bryant sidelined because of a hamstring injury. Bryant’s role had been on the rise and was coming at the expense of Franklin. He notably flipped Franklin in first-read target share over the past two weeks. In the four games before that, Franklin easily led the team with a 29 percent first-read target share. He turned that into 15.1 PPR points per game.
Sit: Michael Pittman, Colts
Shedeur Sanders has the second-lowest passing yardage prop of the week at 180.5. Phillip Rivers has the lowest, coming in nearly 30 yards behind Sanders. Rivers hasn’t played football since 2020 and is joining the Colts mid-season, mid-week. Pittman wasn’t even getting home with Daniel Jones under center before he went down. He posted 9.2 PPR points per week over the past month. Rivers could be the next incarnation of Joe Flacco. I, however, will side with the books as a skeptic.
Sit: Deebo Samuel, Commanders
Samuel has taken a hit whenever Jayden Daniels is out of the lineup. He goes from 14.2 PPR points per game in Daniels starts to 12.3 with Marcus Mariota under center.
That isn’t a drastic dropoff, but arguably fluky touchdown production has propped up his fantasy output in Mariota starts. Just looking at his receiving volume, Samuel experiences a 24 percent dip in targets without Daniels available. Mariota is back in the saddle this week after Daniels reaggravated his elbow injury in Week 14. Samuel, in turn, is tumbling down the WR3 ranks.
▶ Tight End
Start: Dalton Kincaid, Bills
Kincaid returned to the lineup last week for a modest role, highlighted by his 52 percent route rate. That, however, hardly matters when Kincaid is the most efficient tight end in the league. He averaged an impressive 2.2 yards per route run in Week 14 and is all the way up at 2.9 on the year. That mark easily leads all tight ends. Kincaid’s 7.1 YAC per catch ranks third at the position. In a shootout with the Patriots, Kincaid is pushing for a TE1 ranking.
Start: Harold Fannin Jr., Browns
David Njoku went down with a knee injury early in Week 14 and did not return. His absence paved the way for Fannin’s best day of the year. The rookie logged a 30 percent target share on 85 percent of the routes. He cashed in on the uptick in opportunities with an 8/114/1 receiving line. Njoku now appears to be out for Week 15, pushing Fannin up the TE1 ranks.
Sit: Mark Andrews, Ravens
Likely and Kincaid play similar roles. Both don’t see the field for every passing play which severely hamstrings their fantasy value. Likely isn’t quite as efficient, but he’s trending in the right direction. He is averaging 2.4 YPRR and .23 targets per route run since Lamar Jackson returned to the lineup. His ability to earn targets has become an issue for Andrews’ fantasy backers. Over that same stretch, Andrews is being targeted on 16 percent of his routes while earning a dreary 1.2 YPRR. Even in a shootout, I’m skeptical that Andrews can survive with these efficiency numbers.
Sit: Colston Loveland, Bears
Loveland has been getting by as a part-time player on a run-first offense. That could come to an end this week. Loveland hasn’t seen a target share over 19 percent since Week 9. He has run a route on 62 percent of Caleb Williams’ dropbacks over the past month. Now Chicago gets a game where they will almost certainly lean on their ground game. The Bears are favored by 7.5. Williams hasn’t completed more than 20 passes in a game since Week 8. He won’t need to do so versus Cleveland.
