Welcome to the Dynasty Three & Out, where each week we’ll focus on three players gaining value and three others losing dynasty value based on the latest news and performances on the field.
Note: Any dynasty ADP or dynasty trades referenced in this article can be found at dynastyleaguefootball.com
Risers:
Lamar Jackson, QB BAL
Against the Bengals in Week 11, Ravens rookie QB Lamar Jackson earned his first career start and wasted no time in putting his name in the record books. Baltimore drafted Jackson late in the first round as an eventual replacement for veteran QB Joe Flacco and when the starter had a hip injury flare up during the team’s bye week, it became clear Jackson would get his chance. Jackson, the former Heisman winner known for his ability to run the ball, set the Super Bowl-era record for rush attempts by a quarterback when he ran the ball a whopping 27 times, gaining 117 yards. This, along with 150 passing yards, was enough to make Jackson a low-end QB1, pending Monday Night Football.
Following the game, Ravens HC John Harbaugh called Jackson’s performance “spectacular” and suggested Flacco would miss another week. Like most high-profile rookies, Jackson was already carrying significant dynasty value and now his on-field production is catching up to that. In the latest dynasty ADP, Jackson came in as the QB16 with an overall ADP of 154.
D.J. Moore, WR CAR
A year ago, Panthers WR Devin Funchess enjoyed a breakout season and was quickly viewed as the team’s WR1. This year, rookie WR D.J. Moore is claiming that crown. Through the Panthers’ first six games, Moore played sparingly but Moore has taken advantage of an increased role with veteran WR Torrey Smith out with an injury. Smith has missed the past four games and during that time, Moore leads Carolina with 283 receiving yards and is second in targets (21). Moore is easily outpacing Funchess in nearly every receiving category. In Sunday’s game, Moore caught seven passes for 157 yards and a touchdown, announcing his presence.
Of course, dynasty owners are well aware of Moore, who ascended to the rookie WR1 spot in the majority of rookie drafts last spring. Moore’s current ADP of WR25 and 50 overall is a new high mark for the first-year wideout and that data was gathered before his recent hot streak. Moore is on a path of becoming a top-36 overall pick in offseason dynasty startup drafts.
Tre’Quan Smith, WR NO
Saints rookie WR Tre’Quan Smith has been a favorite of dynasty players for months now and that love only grew when veteran WR Ted Ginn suffered a season-ending injury. In Smith’s first game post-Ginn injury, he caught three passes for 111 yards and two touchdowns. Since then though, his play has been inconsistent and disappointing despite the Saints weekly high scores.
Smith’s dominant Week 11 performance has him back in the spotlight. He caught ten passes for 157 yards and a touchdown. Since Ginn’s injury, Smith is second on the team in targets (27), receiving yards (276) and Air Yards (338). With a 12.5 average depth of target (aDot), Smith has clearly established himself as the main deep threat for QB Drew Brees.
As expected, Smith has been a fast riser when it comes to dynasty ADP. His current WR40 and 82 overall ADP is by far his highest yet also has room to grow.
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Fallers:
Alex Collins, RB BAL
All season long, the Ravens have been trying to reduce the role of starting RB Alex Collins, who leads all running backs with three lost fumbles on the season. They tried giving RB Buck Allen a heavier load. They traded for Packers RB Ty Montgomery. On Sunday, they gave 17 carries to undrafted rookie RB Gus Edwards, who responded with 115 yards. That’s the first 100-yard rushing game of the season for a Ravens running back.
It might be too small of a sample size to assign a high value to Edwards, but we do know enough to have serious concerns about Collins. The former Seattle RB became a hot name in the back half of last season when he came out of nowhere to claim the Ravens starting role. This season, along with the fumbles, Collins has not finished inside the top ten fantasy RBs in any week this season and has a single-game rushing high of only 68 yards. Factor in his limitations in the passing game, and Collins is becoming an easy fade in dynasty leagues.
After reaching a high-point dynasty ADP of 53 overall and RB23 this offseason, Collins is down to 103 and RB39. That’s the first time he’s been outside of the top 100 overall players since December.
Eric Ebron, TE IND
Colts TE Eric Ebron has been one of the top stories of the season, thanks to his nine receiving touchdowns, which leads all tight ends. Ebron and his role in the Indianapolis offense all comes down to the status of TE Jack Doyle, who missed five games in the middle of the season. Oddly, Ebron has scored five receiving touchdowns in games Doyle plays and only four when Doyle sits. That is the only number in his favor.
We now have a nice five game sample of games with Doyle and five when he was out with the hip injury. In games when Doyle plays, Ebron runs 11.2 routes, plays about 35% of the snaps and draws five targets per game. When Doyle is out, those numbers spike to 37.8/72.6/10. We can expect the touchdowns to regress but the trends in opportunity have been consistent.
Ebron saw a value spike earlier in the season and climbed up to TE11 in the most recent dynasty ADP data. That’s his highest since July 2017. Barring a significant Doyle injury, expect that number to tumble in the coming months.
Alshon Jeffery, WR PHI
When veteran WR Alshon Jeffery made his season-debut, returning from offseason surgery, he was an instant difference-maker for the Eagles and fantasy players. In his first four games back on the field, Jeffery posted weekly fantasy finishes of WR11, WR7 and WR6.
Since Week Eight, Jeffery has struggled, and the Eagles have lost two of the past three games. Jeffery’s weekly ranks over that span are WR56, WR40 and WR46, pending MNF. He hasn’t caught more than four passes or exceeded 50 yards in that time.
Most players can endure that type of short-term slump without seeing their dynasty value dip. Players coming off serious offseason injuries with a history of PED usage, not so much.
