A good draft is the first stage to winning your fantasy championship, but that’s easier said than done. You can take a solid step in the right direction though if you don’t reach for overvalued and over-hyped players, so let’s look at some players I’m fading in 2015.
I’ve nothing against Beasley as a player, and in fact he’s my No.1 defensive lineman in this rookie class, but he’s being overvalued in redraft formats this year (as will most rookies). He’s landed in a great spot with the Falcons thanks to HC Dan Quinn’s defensive scheme, but rookie defensive ends are rarely fantasy contributors in the first few seasons. You only have to look at the first season sack totals of the very best in the game to get an idea of how tough it is; J.J. Watt - 5.5 sacks, Robert Quinn – 5 sacks, Chandler Jones – 5 sacks, Mario Williams – 4.5 sacks and Jason Pierre-Paul – 4.5 sacks. It can take a season or more for a rookie to find his feet in the pro game, and often playing time is limited in their opening season as well, putting a cap on their value. Beasley is by no means a confirmed three-down player this season, despite the Atlanta defensive woes, and even relatively optimistic projections don’t see him breaking into the top-30, which makes him a fantasy backup. I wouldn’t consider Beasley on draft day unless it’s a deep league and I’m grabbing an upside DL4.
Wake is one of the better edge-rushers in the league and has been for several seasons, but has seen a decline in his tackle totals in the last two seasons which has seen his value fall from that of an elite fantasy end to a risk/reward DL2. Between 2010-2012 Wake averaged 50.5 total tackles per season, but that has fallen to 36.5 over the last two years. This fall in production has also been replicated in his sack totals, down from 12.5 to 10. Don’t fall into the trap of drafting Wake based on name value alone, as although he may well hit double-digit sacks it looks like a tall order for him to break into the top-15, although he should be a low-end DL2.
A sensational rookie season in 2013 (159 total tackles, two sacks, four interceptions, one forced fumble and two recovered) saw Alonso rank as the sixth-best fantasy linebacker, but he subsequently suffered an ACL tear that would cost him all of 2014. He’s now been reunited with Chip Kelly (from their Oregon days) and he’s being drafted as a strong scoring LB1. I’d advise a lot more caution with Alonso, as a closer look at his 2013 statistics suggests a repeat of his LB1 numbers is by no means a given. Of his 159 total tackles, nearly half (72) were assisted tackles. All four of his interceptions came in the first four games of the season, as did his forced fumble and one of his two sacks, meaning his only splash play after Week 5 in 2013 was a single sack. From Week 5 onwards that season, Alonso ranked as the 14th best fantasy linebacker (playing the fifth most snaps). Taking into account his departure from Buffalo means he’ll have a much less tackle-friendly stats crew too, I’m more comfortable projecting Alonso as a mid-LB2 with upside, so don’t get aggressive in pursuing him as a top-10 ‘backer.
Houston is the victim of the fact that fantasy does not always represent reality, and unless he can post another 20-sack season, he’ll struggle to repay his fantasy owners. He ranked as the No.2 ‘backer last year, behind only DeAndre Levy, thanks to a career-year. Houston posted career-best numbers for total tackles (68), sacks (22 – double his previous best), forced fumbles (4) and passes defensed (5), and as a result is being considered a LB1 in less savvy IDP leagues. Even with his projected 15 sacks and 53 total tackles Houston will struggle to be an end-of-season LB3 and he’ll be a boom-or-bust scorer on a weekly basis, making him a headache every week when deciding whether to play him or not, although if you’ve drafted him as an LB1 you’re almost obliged to consider him a plug-and-play. Houston is not a player I’ll find on any of my rosters as I’d much rather look to the likes of Zach Brown, Clay Matthews and Nigel Bradham as my third and fourth linebackers as they have upside and their points come (consistently) from tackles.
All of Shazier’s fantasy draft stock comes directly from the buzz he generated during the rookie scouting process, because he’s shown very little yet as a pro. After starting three games as a rookie he suffered a knee injury that kept him on the sidelines until Week 8. His return was plagued by ankle issues and he only played just over 100 snaps during the rest of the year. Yet, hype remains for Shazier in 2015. Reports say he’s bulked up and will man one of the inside linebacker spots, but it’s not clear whether he’ll have a three-down role despite his athleticism. If he’s not a three-down player he’s not fantasy relevant, and even if he is, it’s not a lock he’ll put up solid numbers. Shazier is being drafted as a LB2, but he’s a player I’m totally avoiding as I’m not confident he can even post LB4 numbers. There just isn’t enough out there for me to want to gamble on Shazier, and at his current price I’d much rather draft Stephone Anthony or Eric Kendricks.
Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor
It’s tough to argue that there is a better safety tandem in the league than Thomas and Chancellor, but as with Justin Houston, a big reputation doesn’t equate to big fantasy points. Thomas has only had one elite fantasy season (in 2013), and has in fact finished outside the top-36 defensive backs three times in his five year career. He’s been a splash play machine (6, 5, 5, 7 and 5) but that hasn’t made him a fantasy staple, yet he’s often drafted as a DB1. Chancellor burst onto the IDP scene as a widely-advised sleeper in 2011 with 97 total tackles, and then proceeded to post 97 and 99 total tackles the following two seasons to confirm his borderline DB1 value, but slumped to 78 total tackles last year, adding just one interception and one forced fumble. Although some will point to his two missed games as a reason for the lower output, his points-per-game would have only seen him crack the top-40, a long way short of his borderline DB1 valuation as per his ADP. Both players interest me as DB2/3s, as they have DB1 potential, but it’s more likely they post DB3/4 numbers. However it’s very unlikely 20-plus defensive backs are taken before these two, so it’s safer to avoid them.
