Greetings all. My name is Gary Davenport, and I’m the IDP Senior Staff Writer at Fantasy Sharks. I’m honored to have been asked by the fine folks here at Rotoworld to bring you all the news that’s fit to print on the defensive side of the ball in 2016 with IDP Nation.
We’ve made our way through training camp and the preseason, and with it the fantasy drafts that occur at the same time. Our IDP squads have been assembled, and now it’s just a matter of setting lineups and getting after it.
That also means that it’s time for many IDP owners to fall into a trap that’s as tempting as it is avoidable, the urge to get cute early in the season, to start a lesser IDP option with a favorable matchup over a better player whose matchup doesn’t look so hot.
The fact is, at this early juncture in the 2016 season we aren’t exactly sure which matchups are favorable to begin with. We think we know that the Buffalo Bills will run the ball a lot and that the Cleveland Browns will stink (sorry, Browns fans), but every season the month of September brings with it a surprise or three.
Simply put, you drafted the players you did for a reason. Drafted the starters you did for a reason. This isn’t to say that matchups aren’t a factor early on with similarly ranked players, but for at least the first couple weeks of the season (barring injury) your best bet in IDP leagues likely lies with the chalk plays.
WATT’S STATUS: The biggest ongoing storyline in IDP leagues with Week 1 upon us is no doubt the surgically-repaired back of Houston Texans’ defensive end (and IDP monster) J.J. Watt. Watt has been activated and is practicing with the team, with head coach Bill O’ Brien telling KPRC-TV “I would say that he will play. Beyond that, I’m not going to answer too much more about that.”
Given how recently Watt underwent back surgery it’s a near certainty Watt will be on a snap count against the Bears, and we’ve seen this injury wreak havoc on a player’s ability to be effective for most of the season. But those players weren’t Justin James Watt, slayer of all who stand before him. If he’s on your roster and he suits up, you almost have to start him.
WAKE TAKING A NAP: With veteran defensive end Cameron Wake well the wrong side of 30 and coming off a torn Achilles, it makes sense that the Miami Dolphins would limit his snaps early in the season. Per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, the Dolphins will do more than that, with Wake playing a specialist role while Jason Jones plays on early downs opposite Mario Williams.
“In our first- and second-down package, which is obviously more run and mixed play-action pass, Jason Jones will be the starting end along with Mario Williams,” DC Vance Joseph said. “Cam will be used some on first and second down but mostly in pass-rush situations.”
Sunday’s matchup against the Seattle Seahawks is a favorable one from a pass rush perspective, but with questions swirling around his snap count Wake is at best an uninspiring DL3.
SNEAKY SNEAKY: There may be some chicanery afoot in Kansas City outside head coach Andy Reid giving fantasy owners of Jamaal Charles the vapors. One of the more interesting developments of the preseason was the Chiefs playing a lot of 3-3-5 alignments wherein Daniel Sorensen was for all intents and purposes the team’s second inside linebacker.
There was further evidence this move could be more than tinkering when the Chiefs somewhat surprisingly cut bait on ILB Ramik Wilson, who many expected to start alongside IDP stud http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/3376/Derrick-Johnsonhttp://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/3172/Derrick-JohnsonDerrick Johnson.
The team also signed Packers castoff Sam Barrington, so this may be much ado about nothing. But if the Chiefs run this setup with any frequency in Week 1 against the Chargers, Sorensen could become a very interesting waiver target as a Mark Barron (light) type, a player with DB eligibility playing the role of a linebacker.
INJURY RUNDOWN: Here’s a look at the latest injury news of note to IDP owners as we gear up for the first week of the 2016 season.
Tyrann Mathieu (S, AZ): Per Darren Urban of the team’s website, head coach Bruce Arians said he expects Mathieu to play “every single snap” against the New England Patriots. That may be hyperbole, but Mathieu’s a DB1 start Sunday night.
Keanu Neal (S, ATL): After his recent knee scope the rookie first-round pick will miss Atlanta’s Week 1 tilt with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Kemal Ishmael is expected to start in his stead.
Vontaze Burfict (OLB, CIN) [SUSPENSION]: With Burfict sidelined until Week 4, Vincent Rey and Karlos Dansby are locked into three-down roles, including this week’s opening matchup with the New York Jets.
Sean Lee (OLB, DAL): Lee hasn’t wasted any time giving his IDP owners indigestion thanks to his sore knee. But Lee is practicing in full and expected to start Sunday’s season opener against the New York Giants.
Clayton Geathers (S, IND): With Geathers still rehabbing his broken foot and unable to play, rookie, T.J. Green will start for the Colts against the Detroit Lions. It’s a plus matchup on paper, but Green falls under that “getting cute” rule I mentioned earlier.
Rob Ninkovich (DE, NE) [SUSPENSION]: Ninkovich has hit the rare unavailability double dip, in that he’s both hurt (triceps) and now suspended the first four games of the season. Veteran defensive end Chris Long will see an increase in playing time while Nink’s out.
Jonathan Casillas (OLB, NYG): After injuring his ribs in the preseason Casillas is back at practice and on track to play three downs against a Dallas Cowboys team that will run the ball a lot with Ezekiel Elliott.
Sheldon Richardson (DE, NYJ) [SUSPENSION]: Richardson will sit out Sunday’s season opener against the Cincinnati Bengals. That means more snaps for second-year pro Leonard Williams, but the matchup isn’t very good.
Karl Joseph (S, OAK): Joseph isn’t hurt per se, although he’s hurt many an IDP owners’ feelings in the short term. The Raiders released their first regular season depth chart on Tuesday, and it listed the rookie first-round pick as a reserve strong safety behind starter Nate Allen.
WEEK 1 GUYS I LIKE
Vinny Curry – DE, PHI (vs. CLE): You can add Brandon Graham, Connor Barwin and of course Fletcher Cox to this list. If the preseason was any indication, the Browns are going to be a “start ‘em if you got ‘em” pass rush matchup in 2016.
Danielle Hunter – DE, MIN (at TEN): Both Hunter and IDP stalwart Everson Griffen are solid plays in Nashville against a Titans team that led in the NFL in sacks allowed and allowed the second-most fantasy points to defensive linemen in 2015.
Mario Williams – DE, MIA (at SEA): “Super Mario’s” comeback attempt should get off to a good start against a Seattle line that allowed 46 sacks last year and hasn’t looked a bit better in 2016.
Kwon Alexander – ILB, TB (at ATL): It’s been forgotten by many, but for much of the 2015 season Alexander was out-pointing Lavonte David in Tampa. He’ll have a chance to refresh some memories in a good Week 1 matchup.
http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/3376/Derrick-Johnsonhttp://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/3172/Derrick-JohnsonDerrick Johnson – ILB, KC (at SD): Sometimes the IDP gods smile on you – like when a veteran beefcake opens the season against the team that allowed the most FPPG to linebackers in 2015 with all sorts of uncertainty at the ILB spot next to him. Top-five upside this week.
Blake Martinez – ILB, GB (at JAX): The rookie fourth-rounder who earned not only a starting role but a three-down one for the Pack kicks off his NFL career with a top-three fantasy matchup with the Jags. Welcome to the NFL!
http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/7471/Mike-AdamsMike Adams – S, IND (vs. DET): Starting his rookie batterymate in Week 1 might be a cute play, but rolling out the old war horse is a smart one. Only Denver and Baltimore surrendered more fantasy points in the secondary last year than the Lions.
Kurt Coleman – S, CAR (at DEN): Coleman was a great find for IDP owners in 2015, and an opening night tilt with the Denver Siemians gives the veteran a strong chance at starting 2016 on a positive note.
Reggie Nelson – S, OAK (at NO): This may shock you (said no one ever), but the Saints are a plus fantasy matchup for defensive backs. It’s almost as if they throw the ball a lot or something.
WEEK 1 GUYS I DON’T LIKE
DeForest Buckner – DE, SF (vs. LAR): Buckner’s a talented player with a bright future, but he opens his NFL career against a Rams team that allowed a measly 16 sacks last season.
Cameron Jordan – DE, NO (vs. OAK): Jordan’s a hard player to sit right out of the gate, but temper expectations. The Raiders were a positively putrid pass-rush matchup a season ago, and that line looks better in 2016.
Olivier Vernon – DE, NYG (at DAL): In the preseason the Giants D-Line looked light-years better than last year’s mess. But both Vernon and Jason Pierre-Paul open 2016 with a rough matchup against a stout Dallas O-line. Hard to sit either with a rookie starting at quarterback though. Grit your teeth and hope.
Dont’a Hightower – OLB, NE (at AZ): Hightower can be a maddening IDP who goes off in bad matchups and disappears in good ones. But on paper at least this is a good week to look elsewhere. The Redbirds were consistently stingy to linebackers last season.
Demario Davis – ILB, CLE (at PHI): I like Davis a lot this year, but his first matchup is a dud. Not only do the Eagles have all sorts of questions at quarterback, but the Philly scorekeepers award assists approximately never.
Vincent Rey – OLB, CIN (at NYG): With Vontaze Burfict taking a timeout, some owners might be looking to Rey as a fill-in. Look elsewhere in Week 1, the Jets were one of the worst IDP matchups in the NFL for linebackers in 2015.
Antoine Bethea – S, SF (vs. LAR): Like Davis, I love Bethea this year. He has top-10 fantasy upside that was available on the cheap in many drafts. Don’t get discouraged if the 32-year-old lays an egg in a Week 1 game that will likely be an affront to offensive football.
Calvin Pryor – S, NYJ (vs. CIN): I’m holding out hope that improved play and a shaky LB in front of Pryor portend a breakout of sorts in 2016. The odds are against it starting in a bottom-three fantasy matchup with the Bengals.
Eric Weddle – S, BAL (vs. BUF): Weddle’s a fascinating case, a player with a long track record of production moving to a team that hasn’t produced a fantasy-relevant DB in a good long while. He gets a rough matchup out of the gate though.
THE SCRAP-HEAP STREAMING CORNERBACK PLAY OF THE WEEK
In recent years the number of dependable weekly fantasy starters at the cornerback position has dwindled to just about zero. So as a service to those hearty souls who play in IDP leagues that require them, each week I’ll point out a player at that position available in many leagues who should serve as a fine streaming option.
David Amerson – CB, OAK (at NO): I’m regularly astounded by the players I can scoop off the wire in CB-required formats who have no business being available in the first place. That’s the case with Amerson, as he was a top-five fantasy cornerback for much of last season and gets a juicy matchup to kick off the 2016 campaign.
