We’ve reached the end of the road for the fantasy regular season. In more leagues than not, Week 13 is it – the final chance teams have to nail down the postseason spot that will allow them to play on in search of championship glory.
Of course, for many the playoffs have already begun for all intents and purposes. If you need a win this week in order to make the playoffs at all, then that particular brand of single-elimination fun and excitement is already underway. Win, and you move on…
Lose, and it’s a long, cold offseason before we get the chance to draft again next summer.
From here on out, every lineup decision becomes a game unto itself. Every single fantasy point can mean the difference between victory and defeat.
OK, now I’m freaking myself out a little bit.
Those higher stakes aside, the goal in Week 13 is the same as in any other – field an IDP lineup that will rack up the most possible fantasy points. Go get a win.
Let’s see if we can’t do that with a look around IDP Nation as the calendar turns to December.
WEEK 12 IDP BEASTS
Jason Pierre-Paul – DE, New York Giants: It took him a while to get going, but man oh man is Pierre-Paul going now. Over the last two weeks, Pierre-Paul has piled up 12 tackles, an eye-popping 5.5 sacks and two forced fumbles. Is that a lot? It sounds like a lot.
Justin Houston – OLB, Kansas City Chiefs: Houston was a one-man wrecking crew in last Sunday night’s win over Denver, racking up three first-half sacks while forcing a fumble that led to a safety. Houston don’t appear to have a problem no more.
D.J. Swearinger – S, Arizona Cardinals: Much like Tony Jefferson a year ago Swearinger has occasionally posted big stat lines in favorable matchups in 2016. Week 12 was just such an instance – seven tackles and a pick in Arizona’s loss to the Atlanta Falcons.
WEEK 12 IDP LEASTS
Geno Atkins – DT, Cincinnati Bengals: Atkins remains one of the best three-technique tackles in the NFL, but the statistical production just hasn’t been there in 2016. Week 12’s zero against the Baltimore Ravens was the third doughnut Atkins has posted this season.
Demario Davis – ILB, Cleveland Browns: Davis started the 2016 season a sought-after IDP commodity as an every-down linebacker on a bad defense. After playing less than 10 snaps last week against the Giants, his last shreds of fantasy value are gone – especially with a Week 13 bye looming.
Jaquiski Tartt – S, San Francisco 49ers: After Eric Reid went down for the year Tartt was a trendy waiver pickup last week. His Week 12 matchup with the Dolphins wasn’t ideal, but if Tartt can’t do better than two total tackles this week he’ll be right back on the wire soon enough.
WEEK 13 IDP INJURY REPORT
Michael Bennett – DE, Seattle Seahawks (Knee): Seattle head coach has been saying Bennett will be back any day now for many, many days. Even if Bennett plays in Week 13, given the length of his layoff he’ll probably be on a strict snap count.
Jatavis Brown – ILB, San Diego Chargers (Knee): Given the original timetable for Brown’s injury he should be set for a return. However, he didn’t practice at all last week, so we’ll believe he’s coming back when we see him out there moving around.
Barry Church – S, Dallas Cowboys (Arm): It isn’t often you see good news in this part of IDP Nation, but try this on for size – Church will reportedly return to the field Thursday night against the Vikings with a carbon fiber brace on his surgically repaired broken arm.
Adrian Clayborn – DE, Atlanta Falcons (Knee): The Falcons are hopeful Clayborn will play again in 2016 after tearing his MCL against the Arizona Cardinals, but for all intents and purposes his season is over for fantasy owners.
Marcell Dareus – DT, Buffalo Bills (Abdomen): Dareus sat out the end of last week’s win over the Jacksonville Jaguars with an abdominal issue, but he said after the game he fully expects to play in Week 13. One can hope – he had two sacks in the game.
Clayton Geathers – S, Indianapolis Colts (Concussion): Geathers was back on the practice field Monday, albeit in a non-contact jersey. Still, it would appear to indicate he’s on track to be cleared to play Monday night against the New York Jets.
Everson Griffen – DE, Minnesota Vikings (Shoulder): Griffen made an appearance on Tuesday’s injury report after being limited in practice with a shoulder injury. He’s tentatively expected to play Thursday, but injury report pop-ups are never a good thing.
Luke Kuechly – ILB, Carolina Panthers (Concussion): The Panthers haven’t offered any information on Kuechly other than to say he’s in the NFL’s concussion protocol. A.J. Klein played every down at MIKE for the Panthers in Kuechly’s stead.
Sean Lee – OLB, Dallas Cowboys (Illness): In news sure to make IDP owners queasy, Lee sat out Tuesday’s practice due to an illness. However, all indications are Lee will be out there when the Cowboys face the Minnesota Vikings Thursday night.
Blake Martinez – ILB, Green Bay Packers (Knee): With both Martinez and Jake Ryan nicked up the Packers moved Clay Matthews inside next to Joe Thomas in Week 12. Given that the Pack won the game, don’t expect them to fix that which is not broken.
Clay Matthews - OLB, Green Bay Packers (Shoulder): Of course, that’s if Matthews can play himself against the Texans after dinging his shoulder Monday night, an injury head coach Mike McCarthy admitted to being concerned about.
Jason McCourty – CB, Tennessee Titans (Knee): McCourty’s been a better IDP option than NFL cornerback in 2016, but a shorthanded Titans secondary badly needs him on the field. As such, he’s expected to give it a go in Week 13.
Gerald McCoy – DT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Foot): McCoy’s nursing a bad flipper, but with the Buccaneers’ playoff hopes hanging by the slimmest of threads McCoy is expected to play Sunday against the San Diego Chargers.
Perry Riley – ILB, Oakland Raiders (Hamstring): Riley missed last week’s wild win over the Carolina Panthers complements of a bum hamstring. Rookie Cory James would draw the start against the Bills if Riley can’t go in Week 13.
Danny Trevathan – ILB, Chicago Bears (Knee – IR): A season of bad breaks for the Bears got that much worse in Week 12, as Trevathan suffered a patellar tendon tear that not only ends his 2016 campaign but puts his 2017 in jeopardy as well.
Mario Williams – DE, Miami Dolphins (Illness): Williams was reportedly sidelined against the San Francisco 49ers by a stomach virus, which is ironic given that he’s been making his IDP owners nauseous for most of the season.
Shawn Williams – S, Cincinnati Bengals (Hamstring): Williams missed Cincinnati’s Week 12 loss to the Ravens with a hamstring injury suffered the week before. His status for Week 13 should be considered shaky at best.
THE WHAT THE HECK DO YOU HAVE TO LOSE WAIVER PLAY OF THE WEEK
Edwin Jackson – ILB, Indianapolis Colts
As ESPN’s Mike Wells wrote, Jackson has been making the most of his additional playing time next to veteran D’Qwell Jackson. “The Colts are looking to get younger,” Wells said, “and they want an athletic player who can stop the run and also drop back into coverage against tight ends. A second-year player, Jackson is taking advantage of the extra snaps he has received in recent weeks, and those snaps will probably increase going forward, barring a dropoff in production from him.”
Jackson’s been a decent statistical producer the past couple of weeks, playing about 80 percent of Indy’s defensive snaps and averaging seven total tackles a game. That isn’t the kind of fantasy production that’s going to single-handedly win you a game, but for what it’s worth Edwin out-pointed D’Qwell in Week 12.
GUYS I LIKE IN WEEK 13
Trey Flowers – DE, New England Patriots (vs. LA): The Patriots are employing a four-man carousel at defensive end, but the going ‘round should be truly merry in a favorable pass rush matchup this week with the Rams.
Brandon Graham – DE, Philadelphia Eagles (at CIN): Graham hasn’t had a sack since Week 10, but that dry spell should end Sunday – the Bengals are fourth in sacks allowed and fifth in fantasy points per game surrendered to the position.
Khalil Mack – DE, Oakland Raiders (vs. BUF): Advising IDP owners to start Mack is a bit like advising that water is, in fact, wet. I just wanted the opportunity to rave a bit about what a dominant defender he is after his recent rampage. Next up – a Defensive Player of the Year Award.
Jordan Hicks – ILB, Philadelphia Eagles (at CIN): The Bengals haven’t just been kind to the defensive front in 2016. They have also been a top five fantasy matchup for linebackers, which bodes well for Hicks and Nigel Bradham.
Darron Lee – ILB, New York Jets (vs. IND): Lee is coming off a season-best 11 total tackles against the New England Patriots and gets a matchup this week with a Colts team allowing the most fantasy points per game to linebackers.
Alec Ogletree – OLB, Los Angeles Rams (at NE): The Patriots have been a fantasy goldmine for linebackers in 2016. They are going to get a lead and pound away with Blount late. There isn’t a linebacker in IDP I like more in Week 13.
T.J. Ward – S, Denver Broncos (at JAX): Ward is primed to bounce back from a disappointing Week 12 this week against the Jaguars. Jags get behind, Jags throw the ball all over the field, Ward cleans up – gotta love garbage time numbers.
Donte Whitner – S, Washington Redskins (at AZ): Whitner’s stat line on Turkey Day was a letdown, but it’s short memory time. No team has been friendlier to fantasy defensive backs in 2016 than the Cardinals.
Tavon Wilson – S, Detroit Lions (at NO): Wilson has been a solid fantasy producer of late in a “hybrid” role with the Lions, and this week he gets the added benefit of facing a Saints team that ranks second in fantasy points given up in the secondary.
GUYS I DON’T LIKE IN WEEK 13
Marcell Dareus – DT, Buffalo Bills (at OAK): Dareus has piled up two sacks in each of the two full(ish) games he’s played in in 2016. Even if his gut is good Sunday against the Raiders though, the matchup is anything but.
Everson Griffen – DE, Minnesota Vikings (vs. DAL): Like Dareus, Griffen is s nicked-up pass-rusher who will probably play in Week 13. And just like Dareus, Griffen’s matchup against the Cowboys is just about as bad as it gets.
Derek Wolfe – DE, Denver Broncos (at JAX): Coming off a big outing against the Chiefs Wolfe might appear an interesting plug-and-play against the woeful Jaguars. However, bad though they may be the Jags have been stingy to defensive linemen in 2016.
Jonathan Casillas – OLB, New York Giants (at PIT): Casillas hasn’t posted four solos in a game since Week 7 and draws a Steelers team in Week 13 that ranks dead last in fantasy points surrendered to linebackers in 2016.
Will Compton – ILB, Washington Redskins (at AZ): Compton’s production has been down of late, and that cold snap isn’t apt to thaw in the desert Sunday. The Cardinals are 30th in fantasy points allowed to linebackers this year.
Bernardrick McKinney – ILB, Houston Texans (at GB): Given that McKinney’s been well inside LB1 territory most of the season he’s nigh impossible to sit. But expectations should be tempered in a rotten IDP matchup with the Packers.
Karl Joseph – S, Oakland Raiders (vs. BUF): In two of Joseph’s last three games the rookie’s fantasy production has been down. A bad matchup in Week 13 has the makings of turning it into three weeks out of four.
T.J. McDonald – S, Los Angeles Rams (at NE): The Tom Brady Revenge Tour of 2016 includes many things, including crying defenses. One thing it does not include is fantasy points allowed to defensive backs – the Pats are last in the AFC.
Kenny Vaccaro – S, New Orleans Saints (vs. DET): It’s possible Vaccaro’s suspension appeal will be heard this week. Or maybe it won’t. Regardless of what happens in that respect, no team has allowed fewer fantasy points to defensive backs in 2016 than the Lions.
THE SCRAP-HEAP STREAMING CORNERBACK PLAY OF THE WEEK
In recent years the number of dependable weekly fantasy starters at the cornerback position has dwindled to just about zero. So as a service to those hearty souls who play in IDP leagues that require them, each week I’ll point out a player at that position available in many leagues who should serve as a fine streaming option.
A.J. Bouye, Houston Texans (at GB): Bouye’s becoming a personal favorite of mine among streaming options at the cornerback position this season. In three of Bouye’s last four games he’s tallied at least five solos, and in the one game he didn’t Bouye intercepted a pass. Add in a top-five fantasy matchup with the pass-heavy Packers, and I’ll be pinning my postseason hopes on Bouye in a league or two.
