If you’ve made it this far, then congratulations are in order. In the vast majority of IDP leagues, Week 16 is the end of the line. This week’s game is IDP Thunderdome.
Two teams enter, one team leaves – as the champions.
Before we hit the waiver adds (unfortunate though it may be, there are teams with holes in the rosters heading into this most important of games) and injury news and all the other good stuff we run through every week here at IDP Nation, a quick bit of advice as you set your lineups this one last time (or next-to-last time, if your league plays its title game in Week 17).
Trust your gut. Follow your instincts. I greatly hope that this column has been of some help to you in 2017, even if it has served as a lesson in what not to do. But you are the person who has guided your team to the brink of the promised land. It’s you who makes the final call as to who starts and who sits.
And you are the only person who has to live with the decisions you make.
Does that mean you should ignore all the outside voices and expert advice floating around the internet? Of course not. But being knowledgeable about IDP doesn’t make me infallible.
Far from it.
So, if you’re convinced I’m full of it where a player in concerned, ignore me. Being wrong about that is much easier to live with than finding out you were right only after following my incorrect recommendation.
Hopefully I’ll keep those to a minimum this week.
WEEK 16 IDP WAIVER WIRE TARGETS
Stephon Tuitt – DE, Pittsburgh Steelers: Tuitt’s been quiet this season, notching just 18 tackles and two sacks. But if ever there was a week for the veteran to break out with a big stat line it’s on Christmas Night against the hapless Houston Texans.
Antonio Morrison – ILB, Indianapolis Colts: With Jon Bostic on injured reserve Morrison will step into the role of the No.1 linebacker for the Colts – beginning Saturday in a highly favorable fantasy matchup with the Baltimore Ravens.
Chris Conte – S, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: It looks like rookie Justin Evans could be headed to injured reserve, and Conte’s shown more than once in the past that he can put up numbers on the back end while playing full-time.
WEEK 16 IDP INJURY REPORT
Adrian Amos – S, Chicago Bears (Questionable – Hamstring): Amos was producing quite nicely for IDP owners before pulling his hamstring back in Week 12, but he hasn’t played since – making it awfully hard to rely on Amos in a must-win game.
Mark Barron – ILB, Los Angeles Rams (Questionable – Knee): Barron’s Week 15 goose-egg may have killed a few playoff runs, but the Rams have indicated his injury isn’t serious and that Barron might be able to play at Tennessee Sunday.
Jon Bostic – ILB, Indianapolis Colts (IR – Knee): Bostic went down in last Thursday’s loss with a knee injury that was serious enough to end his season. With Bostic on the shelf the Colts may take a look at rookie Anthony Walker over the last two weeks of the season.
Zach Brown – ILB, Washington Redskins (Questionable – Achilles): Brown didn’t play in last week’s win over Arizona, and it’s a safe bet he won’t in Week 16 either. No reason to risk worsening his Achilles injury in a lost season for the team.
Vontaze Burfict – OLB, Cincinnati Bengals (Questionable – Concussion): Burfict hasn’t played since being laid out by Juju Smith-CheapShotter two weeks ago. The IDP LB1 remains in the NFL’s concussion protocol.
Landon Collins – S, New York Giants (Questionable – Ankle): Collins tried to give it a go last week, only to re-aggravate his balky ankle. At this point, given that the Giants have nothing to play for I’ll be surprised if the star safety takes on the Cardinals.
Karlos Dansby – ILB, Arizona Cardinals (Questionable – Calf): Dansby left last week’s loss at Washington with a calf injury and did not return. If he sits Sunday against the Giants, super-sub Josh Bynes would fill in in a decent fantasy matchup.
Lavonte David – OLB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Questionable – Hamstring): David watched Tampa’s Week 14 loss to the Atlanta Falcons in street clothes, and we’re getting to the point in the season when it’s fair to wonder if the Bucs won’t just shut David down for the year.
Thomas Davis – OLB, Carolina Panthers (SUSPENDED): Davis drew a two-game suspension for cheap-shotting Green Bay’s Davante Adams. With Shaq Thompson (foot) also banged up, Luke Kuechly could be set for a MONSTER game against the Buccaneers.
Jordan Evans – OLB, Cincinnati Bengals (Questionable – Forearm): Evans left last week’s loss to the Vikings for a time with an arm injury, but was back on the field in the second half. If Burfict can’t go Sunday Evans could be a solid desperation play.
Justin Evans – S, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Questionable – Ankle): Evans exited Monday’s loss with an ankle injury that is serious enough that reports from Tampa indicate the rookie could be headed to IR later this week.
David Irving – DT, Dallas Cowboys (Questionable – Concussion): All Irving needs is medical clearance to get back on the field for the Cowboys, but it’s always a bit worrisome when a player misses multiple games with a concussion.
A.J. Klein – OLB, New Orleans Saints (Questionable – Groin): Klein hasn’t played since injuring his groin in the first meeting between the Saints and Atlanta Falcons a few weeks ago. His status for Sunday’s rematch is unknown at present.
Gerald McCoy – DT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Questionable – Arm): This is another season-ending injury that just isn’t being called one. The odds that Tampa’s going to roll out McCoy with a torn muscle in his arm are exactly zero.
T.J. McDonald – S, Miami Dolphins (Questionable – Shoulder): McDonald sat out most of last week’s loss to the Buffalo Bills after injuring his shoulder. Given his iffy health and bad Week 16 matchup, he’s waiver wire fodder at this point.
Denzel Perryman – ILB, Los Angeles Chargers (OUT – Hamstring): The Chargers haven’t said that Perryman’s season is officially over, but it is. If Jatavis Brown (chest) is OK to play in Week 16, he should take over for Perryman at inside linebacker.
Vincent Rey – OLB, Cincinnati Bengals (Questionable – Jaw): Rey took a nasty-looking shot to the jaw at the end of Sunday’s blowout in Minnesota. However, given the nature of the injury and lack of news that it’s broken I’m inclined to believe he’ll be a go in Week 16.
Kyle Van Noy – ILB, New England Patriots (Questionable – Calf): Van Noy hasn’t played since December 3rd, and it’s the Pats – so he’d be listed as questionable even if he was 98% healthy or legally dead. Monitor his practice participation as the week progresses.
Bobby Wagner – ILB, Seattle Seahawks (Questionable – Hamstring): Wagner clearly wasn’t himself against the Rams and didn’t make it through the game. The Seahawks are desperate for a win in Dallas, but Wagner’s likely the doubtful side of questionable.
Leonard Williams – DE, New York Jets (Questionable – Concussion): The good news is that Williams logged his first career interception last week. The bad news is he also took a shot to the head and is now in the NFL’s concussion protocol.
K.J. Wright – OLB, Seattle Seahawks (Questionable – Concussion): Wright sat out last week’s drubbing at home, but the team is cautiously optimistic that Wright will be able to be medically cleared ahead of Sunday’s must-win game in Dallas.
THE WHAT THE HECK DO YOU HAVE TO LOSE WAIVER PLAY OF THE WEEK
Nick Kwiatkoski – ILB, Chicago Bears (vs. CLE)
Kwiatkoski allowed to CBS Chicago that all the losing in the Windy City this year hasn’t been fun. Absolutely, it’s frustrating,” Kwiatkoski said. “It’s one of those things where you kind of block everything out, all the outside things, and just worry about the team and the inside stuff. Just keep working and don’t let it really affect you. It sounds a lot easier than it is, but you just got to keep pushing forward. It’s frustrating. But it’s important to just focus on each week and just do what you can do and finish out strong. You can’t let losing get to you too much.”
Kwiatkoski has supplanted Christian Jones as the starter opposite Danny Trevathan at inside linebacker opposite Danny Trevathan for the Bears. Not only might Kwiatkoski and a Bears get a rare win over the hapless Cleveland Browns Sunday, but the young linebacker should be set for a solid stat line in a top-six IDP matchup for linebackers.
GUYS I LIKE IN WEEK 16
Cameron Heyward – DE, Pittsburgh Steelers (at HOU): Heyward’s having the best statistical season of his career in 2017, and there’s no reason to think that won’t continue on Christmas – no team allows more fantasy points to defensive linemen than the Texans.
Anthony Lanier – DE, Washington Redskins (vs. DEN): Lanier’s been a surprise star of late, notching at least one sack in four of his last five games. Add in a favorable IDP matchup, and Lanier could be a sneaky-good play up front this week.
Jason Pierre-Paul – DE, New York Giants (at ARZ): Pierre-Paul has rebounded back into the top-10 among fantasy defensive linemen this year, and he should end things on a high note against a Cardinals team that has allowed the most sacks in the AFC this year.
Deone Bucannon – ILB, Arizona Cardinals (vs. NYG): Bucannon’s had flashes, but all in all it’s been a down year for the young linebacker. A favorable matchup with the Giants in Week 16 offers an opportunity for a strong finish.
Reuben Foster – ILB, San Francisco 49ers (vs. JAC): The rookie first-rounder missed some time with injuries this year, but Foster is closing the season with a series of favorable matchups that are an early Christmas gift for IDP owners.
Telvin Smith – OLB, Jacksonville Jaguars (at SFO): I really shouldn’t have to even include Smith here, but after last week’s dud some fantasy owners may be dangerously close to overthinking things with Smith. He’s a must-start in a top-three matchup.
Deshazor Everett – S, Washington Redskins (vs. DEN): Everett’s a great plug-and-play option in Week 16 as the full-time strong safety for the Redskins preparing to face a Broncos team that’s fifth in fantasy points given up to defensive backs.
Eddie Jackson – S, Chicago Bears (vs. CLE): Jackson has had a solid rookie season, but his fantasy numbers have been so-so. He’ll end on a high-note against the Browns as DeShone Kizer hits 20 interceptions for the year.
Daniel Sorensen – S, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. MIA): Sorensen’s actually done a pretty good job of filling in for Eric Berry this year, and in Week 16 he draws a Miami Dolphins squad that has allowed the most fantasy points to defensive backs this season.
GUYS I DON’T LIKE IN WEEK 16
Ezekiel Ansah – DE, Detroit Lions (at CIN): At best, Ansah’s been a feast-or-famine IDP option in 2017, although he’s at least picked up the pace of late. However, this week sets up as the latter – the Bengals are 29th in fantasy points given up to d-linemen.
Aaron Donald – DE, Los Angeles Rams (at TEN): I know that Donald is almost impossible to sit in a game with stakes this big. But he’s fighting an uphill battle in Week 16 – only the Raiders have allowed fewer fantasy points to defensive linemen.
Brandon Graham – DE, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. OAK): Graham’s had a good season, but as we saw quite clearly last week with Demarcus Lawrence the Raiders have a tendency to hold even the best pass-rushers in check.
Brandon Marshall – ILB, Denver Broncos (at WAS): Marshall’s quietly put together a top-20 fantasy season, but buyer beware in Championship Week – the Redskins have cratered in a big way when it comes to fantasy points surrendered to linebackers.
Craig Robertson – OLB, New Orleans Saints (vs. ATL): Robertson’s been productive with A.J. Klein out, but this week’s big NFC South showdown with the Falcons could be a letdown. No team gives up fewer fantasy points to linebackers.
Wesley Woodyard – ILB, Tennessee Titans (vs. LAR): Woodyard’s been a consistently productive IDP option for most of the season, but despite all Todd Gurley‘s exploits the Rams are 30th in fantasy points allowed to linebackers in 2017.
Quandre Diggs – S, Detroit Lions (vs. CIN): I’m conflicted on Diggs this week. He’s been wildly productive as a strong safety with CB eligibility – a real IDP difference-maker. But right now the Bengals are hot garbage offensively, and it’s killing opposing defensive backs.
Reshad Jones – S, Miami Dolphins (at KCC): You can’t sit Jones in Week 16. In fact, he’s my top DB in Week 16. But consider this a warning of sorts that only the Cincinnati Bengals have given up fewer fantasy points to defensive backs in 2017.
Eric Reid – S, San Francisco 49ers (vs. JAX): Granted, the Jaguars passing game has improved over the last month or so. But there are still just two teams in the NFL who have surrendered fewer fantasy points to defensive backs this season.
THE SCRAP-HEAP STREAMING CORNERBACK PLAY OF THE WEEK
In recent years the number of dependable weekly fantasy starters at the cornerback position has dwindled to just about zero. So as a service to those hearty souls who play in IDP leagues that require them, each week I’ll point out a player at that position available in many leagues who should serve as a fine streaming option.
Buster Skrine, New York Jets (vs. LAC): Skrine, much like the Jets, has been better than most expected – he has 52 tackles and a smattering of big plays this season and ranks just outside the top 15 at his position for the season in fantasy points. Skrine had five solos and a forced fumble last week against the New Orleans Saints, and that tackle line is a reasonable expectation again this week against a Chargers team that’s been kind to the position in 2017.
