Once upon a time, I was one of the many fantasy pundits that disliked the notion of playing fantasy championships in Week 17. “Too many teams sit too many starters,” I echoed along with them. “It’s letting one fluke week determine an entire season.”
I still prefer Week 16 title games, but over the years I’ve warmed to the idea a bit. In fact, I’ll be playing for two championships this weekend – and both of those leagues are IDP-only.
For starters, NFL teams have almost always been more inclined to sit offensive starters than their defensive counterparts. This isn’t to say it never happens – it will be a surprise if Philadelphia Eagles defensive end Brandon Graham plays in a meaningless Week 17 game on a bad ankle – but it doesn’t usually hit the IDPs as hard.
Also, the NFL’s move to backload the schedule with intra-division games has helped. As it stands today seven of the NFL’s eight division titles are settled, but just three of the 12 playoff seeds are locked in – Philly at No. 1 in the NFC, and Jacksonville and Kansas City at No. 3 and No. 4 in the AFC.
Everyone else is either playing for pride or position – the player pool is actually in pretty good shape this year.
If you captured your IDP league’s championship last week, congratulations on the extra Christmas present. Condolences if you did not.
But if you’re still alive in vying for a fantasy title in Week 17, here’s a game-by-game look around IDP Nation to close out my second season writing this column here at Rotoworld.
Hopefully it was helpful.
OK, moderately helpful.
Minimally helpful?
Help me out, here.
Washington Redskins at New York Giants
The 2017 season of Giants safety Landon Collins is over. He was placed on IR Monday with a fractured forearm…With Zach Brown on the shelf last week, Redskins linebacker Zach Vigil for exploded for 14 tackles last week against Denver. Vigil’s a solid spot-start in Week 17…The Redskins are third in fantasy points allowed to defensive linemen this season, so Olivier Vernon, Jason Pierre-Paul and Damon Harrison have a solid opportunity Sunday to end the year on a high note.
New York Jets at New England Patriots
The Patriots are a slightly above-average fantasy matchup for linebackers (14th in fantasy points allowed), so Demario Davis (and to a lesser extent Darron Lee) owners will want to roll out the Jets inside linebackers…That goes double for rookie safety Jamal Adams, who is heating up just in time for a Patriots team that has surrendered the most fantasy points to safeties in 2017…Things are much less rosy for the New England IDPs. Given their injuries at linebacker and New York’s offensive woes, about the only defensive player I’d start with any level of confidence for the Pats is defensive end Trey Flowers.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings can earn a first-round bye with a win over the Bears, and it isn’t unreasonable to expect this meeting to play out similarly to these teams’ first meeting of the season – a 20-17 affair in Week 5 in which the defensive fantasy scoring was on the low side outside Vikings end Everson Griffen (2 tackles, sack, forced fumble) and Bears linebacker Christian Jones (nine stops)…These teams rank 23rd and 24th respectively in fantasy points allowed this season – if you’re looking for huge stat lines this likely isn’t the place.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
Much like his team, Lions defensive end Ezekiel Ansah has been a disappointment in 2017. But Ansah’s heating up late – he has four sacks over the last three weeks and seven total tackles in two of those games. No defensive lineman has more fantasy points over that span…If you play in a CB-required IDP league and can plug Quandre Diggs into one of those spots do it. Diggs has played strong safety for the Lions late in the season and trails only teammate Darius Slay in fantasy points among defensive backs since Week 14.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers still have a shot at the AFC’s No. 1 seed if the Patriots lose to the Jets, so for at least part of this game Ben Roethlisberger and Le’Veon Bell will be out there. That should mean plenty of tackle opportunities for Cleveland’s linebacker trio of Christian Kirksey, Joe Schobert and James Burgess…Pittsburgh’s secondary should benefit from DeShone Kizer’s penchant for picks, but this isn’t a great matchup for Steelers end Cameron Heyward. The Browns have allowed the seventh-most sacks in the NFL, but just the 19th-most fantasy points to defensive linemen.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles aren’t playing for anything, which raises the specter of a short day for players like Fletcher Cox and Nigel Bradham. I don’t expect Brandon Graham to play at all after he tweaked his ankle against the Oakland Raiders on Christmas…The Eagles were already one of the more run-heavy teams in the NFL even before Carson Wentz got hurt, so Sean Lee and Anthony Hitchens should be fine regardless of who’s at quarterback and tailback for Philly…If you saw Nick Foles hold the ball too long last week, you know as well as I do how much Demarcus Lawrence is licking his chops for this last game before he hits free agency.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
Rookie linebacker Reuben Foster suffered a shoulder injury in last week’s big win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, but the tentative hope is that Foster will be able to play through the injury Sunday afternoon…Despite not being listed on Friday’s injury report inside linebacker Mark Barron (knee) was a surprise scratch last week in Nashville. Should Barron also sit out the season finale, Cory Littleton could serve as a decent emergency play. The second-year pro had seven tackles, a sack and an interception in last week’s win over the Titans.
Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
Chargers running back Melvin Gordon is shaping up as a game-time decision against the Raiders. If Gordon sits it would hurt Raiders linebackers Navorro Bowman and Nicholas Morrow and help defensive backs like Karl Joseph and (in CB-required IDP formats) Travis Carrie…The Raiders rank dead last in fantasy points allowed to defensive linemen and have allowed the fourth-fewest sacks (22) in the league. But Chargers ends extraordinaire Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are still must-starts. For what it’s worth, Bosa had a sack when these teams met back in October.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
With little to play for, the Chiefs might be tempted to sit their defensive stars in Week 17 – if they had any. From an IDP perspective, they don’t – safety Daniel Sorensen is the only player on Kansas City’s roster I’d start with any level of confidence this week, and that level would be “not much.” Frankly, the same goes for Broncos linebacker Brandon Marshall. Marshall has quietly put together a quality fantasy campaign in 2017, with 101 tackles and three sacks. But the Chiefs have been a rotten linebacker matchup this season – and that’s with Kareem Hunt on the field.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
The Jaguars are locked into the No. 3 seed in the AFC after losing to the 49ers last week, but outside maybe tailback Leonard Fournette, I expect the Jags to play their starters on both sides of the ball in this game – if only so they avoid a two-game skid heading into their first playoff game in a decade. That’s good news all around, whether you’re hoping that Calais Campbell and Telvin Smith get snaps for Jacksonville or that Titans safety Kevin Byard gets to go up against Blake Bortles after last week’s three-interception dud.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Saints win the NFC South with a victory in Tampa, so New Orleans won’t be pulling any punches Sunday. That’s good news for Buccaneers linebackers Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David – maybe. The Saints rank at the top of the NFL in tackle opportunities allowed per game, but just 25th in fantasy points per game given up to linebackers…The Buccaneers are even worse – only Atlanta has been stingier to the position. However, Tampa’s been much kinder at the front and back end, ranking inside the top-10 in fantasy points allowed to both defensive linemen and defensive backs.
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
For the Bills to end the NFL’s longest playoff drought, they need both a win over the Miami Dolphins and help. The former should mean a heavy dose of LeSean McCoy Sunday, which portends well for Dolphins linebackers Lawrence Timmons and Kiko Alonso and Miami safety Reshad Jones…on the Bills side look for safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde to close their excellent 2017 campaigns. The Dolphins have been making defensive backs look like IDP worldbeaters all season long – no team in the National Football League has allowed more fantasy points to the position in 2017.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Fresh off a two-interception effort against the New York Giants, Cardinals safety Antoine Bethea is done for the season after tearing his pectoral muscle. Fellow safety Budda Baker and linebacker Deone Bucannon are the only Redbirds who merit IDP consideration…Seahawks linebackers Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright are solid starts against a Cardinals team giving up the third-most fantasy points to linebackers during the fantasy playoffs. Strong safety Bradley McDougald could also be a sneaky-good plug-and-play – the Cardinals are fourth in fantasy points allowed to defensive backs and lead the NFC in fantasy points surrendered to defensive linemen. Hello, Michael Bennett and Frank Clark.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
This game is as full of big-name IDP stars as it is high stakes – the Falcons need a win to make the playoffs, while the Panthers need one and a Saints loss to win the division. But while sitting Panthers linebacker Luke Kuechly is IDP blasphemy, it’s worth pointing out that the Falcons have given up the fewest fantasy points to linebackers this year and third-fewest fantasy points to IDPs overall. Kuechly was credited in Charlotte with 11 tackles in Week 9, but only three were solos. This is a huge matchup for both teams, but IDP-wise it isn’t so much a good one for either.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
There could be more than a few IDP titles won this weekend on the backs of Bengals linebacker Vincent Rey, who faces a Ravens team that leads the NFL in fantasy points given up to linebackers as the last man standing in a corps that lost both Vontaze Burfict and Jordan Evans to injuries in Week 15…The outlook isn’t as rosy for Cincinnati defensive linemen Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap, however. Only three teams have given up fewer fantasy points to the position than Baltimore…The Bengals are just a lousy matchup overall – 29th in total fantasy points allowed and dead last in the secondary.
