Week 17 is the most awkward of fantasy weeks, and personally, I’m not a fan. Hopefully only a small number of you are afflicted with having to play your fantasy championship game in Week 17 and won’t have to deal with missing season-long starters who are being rested for a real-life playoff run. Therein lies my issue with running your fantasy season into Week 17, it makes a mockery of deciding which team in the final is the year’s champion as the sides they field are often not indicative of those they used to make the championship game. Not only do players get flat out benched because a team’s playoff spot is secure, but obscure backups come out and score big against half-committed opponents playing out the string of games, and the team you carefully managed throughout the season with careful waiver pickups looks totally different for the final week of the regular season. If you have to make decisions such as one half of an elite QB like Tom Brady, or Carson Palmer or a full game from Teddy Bridgewater who you grabbed from waivers, it’s not a true “final” in my mind. I may be talking offense, not IDP here, but the point remains, Week 17 championship games are a perversion of fantasy.
All that being said, we’re still here with some advice for those of you that do have to deal with Week 17. Let’s get started with some observations…
Week 16 Observations
One of the biggest issues for owners last week was the status of elite linebacker, Telvin Smith. Smith was listed as doubtful, but was playing in the late afternoon slate of games, meaning owners needed to make a call before the 1pm kickoffs, which is always nervy. Those staying on the safe side by benching him made the right call as Smith didn’t suit up, and hopefully you found a viable plug-and-play… The week’s leading tacklers were familiar names in IDP circles; Sean Lee and Malcolm Smith. Lee notched 15 total tackles (11 solo), adding half a sack, while Smith had 14 total tackles (also 11 solo) and a forced fumble. Both players were top-five scoring IDPs last week with 25.5 and 26.8 points respectively. Both are shaping up to be borderline LB1s for next season… Keeping with looking forward, one player worth keying in on in dynasty formats if you can is Chargers LB Denzel Perryman. The rookie has been starting in the second half of the season, although on a limit snap count. Last week marked Perryman’s first game as a three-down ‘backer as he played 71-of-79 snaps and rewarded owners with 11 total tackles (10 solo) and a sack. San Diego look like they are cutting ties with several veterans (Donald Butler, Eric Weddle) and Perryman is shaping up to be an attractive sleeper for next season. Buy now in dynasty if you can… The other double-digit tackle linebackers last week are all familiar names and regular fantasy starters; Ryan Shazier (13 total tackles), Danny Trevathan (12), Bobby Wagner (11), Navorro Bowman (10) and Jerrell Freeman (10). The final name on the list, Giants current starting WLB Jonathan Casillas (11) needs noting for waiver wire purposes. See Guys I Like for more… The Raiders are kicking the tires on what they have on the roster, and have been giving ILB Ben Heeney a shot at playing some significant snaps in the last few weeks, including 183-of-236 snaps in the last three games. He’s averaged 14.2 ppg over those three appearances and is a sneaky Week 17 play, and someone to add to your roster for 2016… Jaime Collins’ absence from Week 9 – 12 was frustrating for owners, but since he’s been back on the field he’s been sensational, averaging 18.1 ppg, including a 24.5 point return last week thanks to eight total tackles (six solo), a forced fumble and recovery, and a defensive touchdown. Collins must be considered with the top echelon of linebackers next season because his dynamic playmaking ability makes him a game-winner each week… The injured Paul Posluszny posted 18 fantasy points last week in what is incredibly his poorest points return in his last four games, having surpassed 20 fantasy points in each of his three previous starts, despite playing alongside fellow IDP stud Telvin Smith. We’ve seen fantasy LB1 tandems work before, namely Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman, so both Poz and Smith look secure in their LB1 rankings for next season… Ryan Shazier recorded 15.5 fantasy points last week, and 16.3 points the week before, but I’m still not fully onboard with the Steelers LB fantasy potential. His Week 15 score vs the Broncos featured only six total tackles (just three solo), and his Week 16 numbers were dominated by eight assisted tackles. There have been short stretches where Shazier has looked like an upwardly mobile LB2, but between injuries and inconsistent production, there are too many question marks over him for me. I’d be trying to sell Shazier this off season if I was an owner… Melvin Ingram has quietly been having a decent season in San Diego. The Chargers OLB has 9.5 sacks this season, and although he may have posted zero fantasy points in two games this season, he also ranks as a low-end LB1 since Week 8 thanks to his 14.1 ppg average during that spell. Even more impressive considering he had one of his duck egg scores in Week 12. I like Ingram as a fourth of fifth linebacker on your roster next season (a primary backup)… All-World fantasy safety Reshad Jones had his second-worst fantasy game of the season, recording only 10.3 points. Jones has had one of, if not the best fantasy season by a defensive back that I can remember in my 10+ years of playing fantasy, recording 102 solo tackles, 29 assisted tackles, two sacks, nine tackles for loss, five interceptions, a fumble recovery and two defensive touchdowns for 257.4 fantasy points, which leads ALL defensive players. Yup, that’s more than Kuechly, Watt et all… For comparison’s sake with fellow defensive backs in 2013 and 2014, only Barry Church in 2013 managed to surpass the 200 point barrier, and as long as Jones scores more than five points in Week 17, only three defensive players in the past three years will have scored more points in a single season (2013 Lavonte David – 302.2, 2013 Karlos Dansby – 280.4, 2014 J.J. Watt 286.2). Just wow…
Week 16 Pass Rushers
The top scoring defensive player last week was Rams defensive end William Hayes, thanks to a three sack demolition of the Seattle offensive line. Hayes, who started the year as a backup, has seen significant usage this year due to injuries to Robert Quinn and Chris Long, and will be ready to strike again this week against a 49ers offensive line that have allowed a league-worst 15 sacks in the last four games… Three other players weighed in with three-sack games last week; Carlos Dunlap, Preston Smith and Dwight Freeney. Dunlap now has 13.5 sacks on the season, just 1.5 behind league leader Khalil Mack and has three 20-point scores in the last four games, turning up the heat for fantasy owners at a crucial time. His development and growth this season along with young edge threats Ziggy Ansah, Muhammad Wilkerson and Mack have added a much needed plethora of talent to the top DE ranks as the last generation of Mario Williams, Jared Allen, Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul have regressed. Ranking the No.2 through No.6 spots next season is going to be tough… A quiet spell in the middle of the season led me to suppress Calais Campbell’s ranking for several weeks, but he’s turned back up the heat over the final weeks of the year, recording two 20+ scores in the last three weeks (albeit with a three point scoring vs the Eagles between). He had 2.5 sacks last week and a single sack plus a fumble recovery in Week 14 to reaffirm his low-end DL1 status. Whether he retains that value next season remains to be seen, as his high floor, low ceiling profile may be overlooked by owners for upside players like Olivier Vernon, Cameron Jordan and Sheldon Richardson, who have the potential to push on like we’ve seen Ansah and Dunlap do this year, relegating Campbell to being a top-end DE2… Don’t overlook how well Fletcher Cox has played this season considering the Eagles woes. Cox has 9.5 sacks (a career-high) and been superb over the last three games, scoring 19.3, 16.3 and 21 points thanks to 21 total tackles (17 solo), four sacks and six tackles for loss. Chip Kelly being fired does leave some question marks as to who will take over in Philly and how that new coach impacts the defensive scheme and Cox’s usage, but a player of his talent level should remain a highly desirable fantasy asset.
Guys I Like
Everson Griffen, Brian Robison and Danielle Hunter vs Packers
It shouldn’t be a surprise to see some Vikings pass rushers mentioned immediately considering they’re playing the Packers, who allowed nine sacks last week, causing Aaron Rodgers to fumble three times. Minnesota’s edge rushers have shown they are capable of taking advantage of good matchups, as shown in Week 13 when they played the Seahawks when Griffen had a sack, and Robison recorded two, so with the Green Bay O-Line in utter disarray they’ll be looking to capitalize and help the team win the division with a win over Green Bay. In fact Robison had notched up four sacks, two hits and nine hurries in the last four games so earns a low-end DL2 ranking this week with such a favorable matchup, while Hunter is a much more of a boom-or-bust play due to his limited snap count, but has four sacks (and six hurries) of his own in the last three games. Everson Griffen’s mixed performances this season mean I’m going to slip him in as a low-end DL1, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him blow up the game and post a multi-sack game.
William Hayes vs 49ers
Hayes had a monster game last week against the porous Seattle line, scoring 32 points thanks to three sacks, four tackles for a loss and nine total tackles (seven solo). This week he gets the second best fantasy matchup for edge rushers against the 49ers, who’s offensive line have allowed a league worst 15 sacks in the last four weeks, so will be looking for a similar impact on the field.
Calais Campbell, Frostee Rucker and Markus Golden vs Seahawks
Having mentioned how poor Seattle’s line was in stopping Hayes, and having been the best matchup all season, you’ll want to start your Cardinals pass rushers this week. Campbell jumps into the top-five defensive linemen, while Rucker and Golden are Hail Mary plays for teams in major need of a miracle.
Stephone Anthony, Hau’oli Kikaha & Roman Humber vs Falcons
Since his 10 total tackle and fumble recovery touchdown in Week 13 against the Panthers, rookie Stephone Anthony has been somewhat disappointing for his fantasy owners. He’s still worth playing this week against the top matchup for off-ball linebackers as he’s scored double-digit fantasy points in eight games this year, including his 10.5 against them in Week 6. If you’re comfortable with a high (very high) risk play with plenty of upside, consider Hau’oli Kikaha. The Saints SLB was impressive in the first half of the season, but injuries have slowed him since. He’s starting to see the field again, but has only played 31-of-110 snaps over the last two games, having conceded the starting gig to Roman Humber, who doesn’t offer quite the same scoring potential. Keep an eye on Saints practice reports about Kikaha before picking him up if you are considering playing him as I doubt there will be a rush to grab and play him. Again, Kikaha or Humber (*not both, only the one who starts) should be considered a Hail Mary play for desperate owners.
Jasper Brinkley and Jonathan Casillas vs Eagles
The Giant’s tricky to evaluate linebackers benefit from the second best matchup for linebackers against the Eagles in the final week of the season. The last two games have seen Jonathan Casillas get the start on the weakside playing 55-of-78 and 67-of-71 snaps, so jumps into the picture as one of our go-to guys for the G-Men. Over those two games he scored 11.0 and 22.3 points, and I like his upside because of the matchup so consider him a slightly scary LB3 play. Jasper Brinkley is the middle linebacker, and has been a starter since Week 8, but is not an every-down player in that role. He’s only played over 75 percent of snaps twice in that span, albeit he played 91.5 percent last week, so again has plenty of appeal against the fantasy-friendly Eagles. Brinkley has been a low-end LB2 since Week 9, averaging 13.7 points per game although he hasn’t had a double-digit score in the last three games. I narrowly prefer Casillas, but it’s close.
Adrian Amos vs Lions
I like rookie Adrian Amos this week against Detroit, who are currently the second best matchup for safeties, having been one of the most favorable matchups all year. Amos has started all year for the Bears, but struggled to put up many points in the first half of the season. A Week 11 sack prompted a breakout fantasy game which he followed up with double-digit fantasy scores in two of the next three weeks, although he has been mediocre in more recent games. Since Week 9 he’s been a DB3, but facing the Lions he can put up DB2 points this week.
Donte Whitner vs Steelers
The Browns safety has been an IDP stalwart for many seasons but has slipped in rankings in recent seasons so may have been over looked returning from a three game mid-season absence due to a concussion and bye week. Since that Week 12 return he’s only had two games over 10 fantasy points, although he has averaged 8.8 ppg, so may have been deemed expendable by someone grabbing one of the plenty of backup RBs from waivers that have come to the fray in recent weeks. The Steelers have been the fifth best matchup for safeties, so I like Whitner as a DB2 this week.
Players I Don’t Like
Fletcher Cox vs Giants
As good as Cox as played in the last month, and despite the fantasy scores he’s posted, I’d be very wary of playing him this week if you have a strong bench. The Giants have been a brutal matchup for pass rushers, significantly tougher to score points on than any other team. Cox did accumulate a very impressive 17.5 points in his Week 6 matchup against the G-Men first-time round, but he’s also had five games scoring less than five points, so is susceptible to a poor score every now and then.
Cameron Jordan vs Falcons
They may be great for linebackers, but Atlanta is a very tough matchup for pass rushers. Cameron Jordan has been very disruptive (10 hits, 49 hurries), but has only turned that into nine sacks, an issue that has plagued his career in my opinion. Jordan has the potential to explode over the course of a season if he can convert a few more pressures into sacks, but against a tough-to-score-on Falcons team, I don’t think it’s going to happen this week.
NaVorro Bowman vs Rams
The Rams have maintained their spot as one of the toughest matchups for off-ball linebackers all season, but owners of NaVorro Bowman will find it very tough to sit him this week due. He still managed 13.5 points in their first game against the Rams (six solos and six assists), which was below his season average of 14.2 ppg. Bowman drops from a top-five spot to being a low-end LB1 this week.
Charles Woodson vs Chiefs
Sunday will be the last game of future Hall of Famer Charles Woodson’s career, and it’s unlikely it’s going to be one to remember against a cautious Kansas City offense that rarely stretches the field or takes risks with Andy Reid and Alex Smith calling the shots. Woodson has ridden series of tough matchups over this final month with limited success, only scoring double-digit points once in the last seven weeks, and as a result can’t be considered more than a middle of the road DB2 in his final game.
Eric Weddle and Jahleel Addae vs Broncos
Issues between the Chargers and star free safety Eric Weddle have been apparent this season due to contract disputes and trade rumors, and have come to a bitter conclusion with Weddle being fined $10,000 for watching his daughter’s on-field half-time performance last week, and has now been benched/placed on IR for the final game of the season because the plane for the trip to Denver was “too small”. Very odd. His likely replacement Jahleel Addae doesn’t appeal either because the Broncos D is a bottom-three matchup for safeties and he isn’t a player of the caliber of Weddle.
