Aaannnnd relax! Week 1 is finally in the books, and fantasy owners around the nation are rejoicing at being able to talk about meaningful football again. Thankfully in here you won’t get relentless coverage of Peyton’s dwindling arm strength, but I will warn you against any massive overreactions to just one week of football.
Cast your minds back to Week 1 of 2014, where Miles Burris recorded an impressive 13 total tackles and was snapped up as a waiver wire must-add. He ended the year outside the top-40 fantasy linebackers. In that same week, end-of-year DL1s Calais Campbell and Sheldon Richardson both scored zero points. Rahim Moore snagged two interceptions, but would take a further five games to score as many fantasy points as he did in his big Week 1 performance. The moral of the story is this, don’t overreact to stat lines and box scores that look like anomalies, instead look for the causation and try to determine whether it’s repeatable and sustainable.
With that being said, let’s take a look at some players worth grabbing if they’re on your league’s waiver wire.
Waiver Wire Targets
A season-ending ankle injury to Arthur Jones thrust rookie Henry Anderson into the Colts starting line-up. On the field for 49-of-59 snaps he recorded nine total tackles (eight solo), although he failed to generate any pressure in 19 pass rushes. He’s not got double-digit sack upside, but he offers a higher floor than most DL3s as a versatile five-technique.
In Washington DC Joe Barry’s new defensive scheme is asking Jason Hatcher to be more of a one-gap penetrator which bodes well for his sack upside, despite only surpassing six sacks in a season once in his career. He had a sack and two pressures, as well as four total tackles.
Robert Ayers generated six hurries and was asked to get after the quarterback on 35 snaps against Dallas with Jason Pierre-Paul still sidelined. With a return date unknown, Ayers staying on the field in passing situations and Damontre Moore (28.2 percent of snaps) being used situationally, he’s worth adding in deeper leagues.
Uani’ Unga’s 12 total tackles (10 solo), interception and two pass deflections will have caught people’s attentions, as did playing all 71 snaps on Sunday with Jon Beason unable to go. He’s worth adding, but don’t overpay. Unga missed a couple of tackles and allowed 9-of-11 pass completed in his coverage for 99 yards and a touchdown. The undrafted rookie will also make way for Beason when he returns, although how long he can stay healthy remains to be seen.
We’ve been going back and forth on whether Danny Trevathan or Brandon Marshall would win out as the three-down linebacker in the middle for the Broncos, and on Sunday’s evidence it is Marshall’s job to lose, having out-snapped Trevathan 54 to 32. Both had solid fantasy days, but Marshall is the Bronco MLB to own.
Kevin Minter has been somewhat of a flop for the Cardinals, and only played 344 snaps last season, but has begun the season as a starting three-down inside ‘backer, recording seven total tackles (five solo). Sean Weatherspoon only played 12 snaps, but did manage to record three total tackles.
Calvin Pryor struggled as a rookie but seems to have embraced a pure strong safety role for the Jets in 2015. His ten total tackles (eight solo) are more in-line with his owner’s expectations from last year, albeit it a year late.
Will Allen has replaced future Hall of Famer Troy Polamalu in Pittsburgh as the starting strong safety and despite leaving the field for a potential concussion had a sterling day with eight total tackles (seven solo) and a sack. The Steelers defense isn’t as stout as it once was so expect Allen to be active.
Don’t Overreact
Mario Williams and Cameron Wake both scored zero fantasy points this week. Both did disrupt the opposing quarterback (Williams one hit and two hurries, Wake one hit), it’s just they didn’t register a scoring statistic… yet. Both are borderline DL1s this week.
The aforementioned Uani’ Unga is worth adding, but perhaps with a sell-high mentality. If he doesn’t improve in coverage he won’t keep his job long, although he’ll see plenty of targets.
Bobby Wagner had a bad week – only five total tackles (and two missed tackles), but also allowing 4-of-4 passes to be completed for 105 yards. He’s a Pro-Bowl caliber player and will bounce back. With five career interceptions he’ll be willing opposing teams to try and test him in coming weeks.
Chargers defenders not named Eric Weddle had poor fantasy days, but that was due to an unusually low snap count. The Chargers only played just 47 defensive which restricted scoring opportunities for their every-down linebackers Manti Te’o (five total tackles and a hurry) and Melvin Ingram (four total tackles, one hit and two hurries).
There was a similar issue for Titans defenders, as they benched their starters in the fourth quarter following a complete rout of Tampa Bay. One of my favorite sleepers Zach Brown (seven total tackles) played an every-down role until then, as did Avery Williamson (two total tackles), Da’Norris Searcy (three total tackles) and Michael Griffin (four total tackles).
Week 1 Pass Rushers
J.J. Watt opened the season in typically dominant style, recording a couple of sacks, a hit and four hurries, not to mention six tackles for loss… Robert Quinn was not to be outdone though as he had two sacks of his own, and four hurries… Fellow Ram Aaron Donald looked equally as devastating closing out the St Louis win over Seattle with a tackle for loss on 4th & 1 in overtime on top of his two sacks, one hit and two hurries… DeMarcus Ware used Ravens LT James Hurst as a turnstile on the way to one sack, three hits and seven hurries on just 24 pass rushes. That’s a disruption on 45.8 percent of his blitzes. Wow… Von Miller wasn’t bad either, charting two hits and four hurries. He’s a lock for double-digit sacks again… It’s a shame Randy Gregory will miss approximately four weeks with a high ankle sprain. He looked dangerous against the Giants, earning one hit and three hurries in 18 pass rushes… Michael Bennett had a sack and three hurries before the Rams started to double team him and slow him down. He looked very disruptive… Just the one sack for Justin Houston this week, but he did generate five hurries… Kony Ealy out-snapped Mario Addison as Greg Hardy’s replacement, but it was the situational rusher Addison who had the more productive day, with two sacks and two hurries… Leonard Williams didn’t get a debut sack, but did have three hurries… One sack, one hit and four hurries highlight why Carlos Dunlap could push for a top-5 ranking at the end of the season, although he’ll face stiff competition from Ziggy Ansah (one sack, one hit) and Everson Griffen (one hit, two hurries).
Other Week 1 Observations
Christian Jones and Shea McClellin started at inside linebacker for the Bears and played every snap… Nigel Bradham had an excellent opening weekend with eight total tackles (seven solo) and one sack, one hit and one hurry to boot. It will be interesting to see if he can’t maintain an LB2 level of scoring… DeAngelo Hall is a starter for the Redskins, and his eight total tackles show he’s still fantasy relevant, especially in CB-required formats… Ndamukong Suh’s Dolphins debut was a lackluster affair as he failed to generate any pressure, and only managed a single tackle… Sean Lee played 100 percent of snaps and recorded nine total tackles. Here’s hoping playing as the weakside linebacker he can stay healthy and be the fantasy force we expect him to be… Jerod Mayo only played nine snaps against the Steelers. Watch this space!... With Kam Chancellor holding out, the Seahawks defense lacks that little bit extra, and his on-field replacement, Dion Bailey, was to blame to the Rams game-tying score late in the fourth quarter when he slipped… Eric Berry (46 snaps) and Tyvon Branch (6 snaps) are not the starters at safety for the Chiefs, it is Ron Parker and Hussain Abdullah… Saints rookies Stephone Anthony and Hau’oli Kikaha make them a better team. They’ll have roles to play this year… Tyrann Mathieu is lining up all over the field for the Cardinals. Out wide, in the slot, back deep. He’s a versatile defensive weapon who will be asked to have an impact on games a lot this year… Bengals reporters could barely restrain their optimism of a bounce back season for Geno Atkins based on what they had been seeing at camp. Well, looks don’t deceive in this case and a sack, forced fumble and four hurries marked his resumption of terrorizing offensive lineman.
Guys I Like
Aaron Donald vs Washington
Donald has DL1 potential this week after a monster performance against the Seahawks. Although the Redskins O-Line only allowed one sack against Wake, Vernon and Suh, they’ll be facing an even tougher unit in Week 2.
Sen’Derrick Marks vs Miami
Nothing like two defensive tackles to start off a recommended Week 2 play’s list. But we’re real IDPer’s in here after all! Well, you must be if you’ve read this far. Marks had nine sacks last year, and although this will be his first game since a Week 1y ACL tear last year, the Dolphins got roughed up by the Redskins, and their O-Line allowed three sacks.
Mike Daniels vs Seattle
Yeah, now we’re going 3-4 defensive ends. Don’t blame me, blame the match-ups! Daniels isn’t someone you’d associate with big plays, but against a Seahawks O-Line that gave up 22 pressures (five of which were sacks) in a single game, you have to roll the dice.
Telvin Smith vs Miami
As much of a man-crush warning as anything else, I see borderline LB1 potential in this efficient tackler in 2015. Despite Paul Posloszny’s return he played an every-down role and recorded nine total tackles. Expect a lot more of these kinds of performances this season from Smith.
Ryan Shazier vs San Francisco
A good fantasy analyst should be able to admit they’re wrong, and then embrace a player. Shazier seems to be a case in point for me, and has shown himself to be productive in the pre-season, and displayed more of the same in Week 1 with seven total tackles from a three-down role.
Brandon Marshall vs Kansas City
With the Week 1 snap counts on record and in favor of Marshall over Trevathan, he becomes an instant low-end LB2 for me. I’ll be starting him in all leagues I own him in, but will you?
Tyrann Mathieu vs Chicago
With Mathieu set to be the movable piece in the Arizona defense that accounts for the opposing team’s major threat, he looks set to have a bumper fantasy season. He flashed high-end DB1 scoring as a rookie, and looks fully recovered from the injuries that slowed him in year two.
Prince Amukamara vs Atlanta
Don’t overlook certain cornerbacks as DB1s, in particular Amukarama, who has a very high tackle floor. He’ll see plenty of Matt Ryan’s favorite target, Julio Jones this coming week, so will have lots of opportunities to make plays.
Guys I Don’t
Ndamukong Suh vs Jacksonville
A disappointing debut after a bumper pay day in free agency. Not a good look. Suh is no Albert Haynesworth, but with emergent DT talent like Donald, Marks and Hankins, plus a resurgence from Geno Atkins, he is no longer a lock top-five DT.
Fletcher Cox vs Dallas
Cowboys LT Tyron Smith is one of the best at his craft when it comes to pass protection, and outside of one snap on Sunday, when he allowed a hit on Romo, he was perfect. Cox is an improving player, but he pass rush repertoire should struggle to make an impact on Smith.
DeAndre Levy vs Minnesota
Missing Week 1 is not a good thing, and with impressive first game back showings from NaVorro Bowman, Sean Lee and Derrick Johnson, Levy slides to the fringes of LB1 territory, for now…
Danny Trevathan v Chiefs
With Marshall as the three-down guy, there are limited sub package snaps for Trevathan. It is as simple as that.
Avery Williamson vs Cleveland
He played an every-down role and saw an oddly low snap count in Week 1, but efficiency stats from 2014 seem to show Williamson needs to up his game with regards to tackle productivity. His two solos last week don’t allay those fears.
Reggie Nelson vs Chargers
An interception masked an otherwise poor fantasy performance in Week 1, as Nelson didn’t register a single tackle. A strange outcome considering he posted a career high 95 total tackles last year, and with tackle monster Vontaze Burfict still on the sidelines.
Eric Berry and Tyvon Branch vs Broncos
Both are former every-down, rock solid, triple-digit tackle safeties, but currently neither is a starter. Until that changes neither should be started. Branch shouldn’t even be owned in right now.
