IDP Nation – Week 5
Another week of football, and another spate of injuries to elite fantasy linebackers… Alec Ogletree, who had 35 total tackles in his last three games, will be out for at least eight weeks with a broken ankle. Jaguars’ veteran Paul Posluszny suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 4, after having recorded 18 total tackles the week before, and the always-injured Sean Lee suffered a concussion last week, and was unable to return to the game. These injuries add on to the continued absences of Luke Kuechly (concussion) and DeAndre Levy (hip), who also did not play in Week 4 (neither did Kiko Alonso), while Mychal Kendricks returned, only to leave on the first series after tweaking his hamstring.
Looking at all of the situations mentioned, few in-house players jump out as must-add players set to benefit from a teammates injury. The Rams have re-signed Jo Lonn Dunbar, while the Jags will promote Thurston Armbrister into a starting role. In Dallas Anthony Hitchens will become a three-down player and Damian Wilson will see some snaps. None appeal as useful fantasy assets. Jordan Hicks is interesting for the Eagles, but with Kendricks seemingly on the cusp of a return, and the fact we don’t have the best grip on who is seen as the next man up between Demeco Ryans and Hicks, don’t over commit to the Eagles rookie.
Telvin Smith has been a player I wanted on as many teams as possible this season, and the injury to Posluszny will be a great litmus test of just how high he can climb without the savvy veteran alongside him. Posluszny led the league in total tackles after three weeks, and although Smith’s totals were decent as well, a week or two without Pos hoovering up tackles next to him should help show us his potential value ceiling for dynasty owners. I can’t imagine he is available in any IDP league worth its salt, unless it is incredibly shallow. If that is the case, I’d highly recommend adding a few IDP starters to your league!
Waiver Wire Pickups
As injuries and bye weeks are kicking in I wanted to touch on some of my favorite waiver wire adds…
Stephon Tuitt recorded ten total tackles (two for loss) and a sack last week. That’s now 22 total tackle for the year, and 3.5 sacks in his last three games. He is outperforming his more popular teammate, Cameron Heyward, and I expect him to be a DL2/3 most weeks moving forwards thanks to his high tackle floor. Even if you are picking him up as a defensive add, to prevent a rival from grabbing him, it’s worth it.
An explosive start for rookie Henry Anderson appears to have slowed, but a look behind the box scores suggest Anderson is primed for a big score soon. His 14 total tackles (five for loss) and a sack over the first two game weeks was followed up by just seven total tackles in the next two weeks. However, ProFootballFocus have graded Anderson as having played significantly better in Weeks 3 and 4, and over those two games he generated one quarterback hit and ten hurries, suggesting he’s primed to breakout. Anderson is going to consistently be ranked as a mid to low DL2 for me until I see evidence suggesting otherwise.
Preston Brown continues to outshine teammate Nigel Bradham, who was a more popular IDP pick in the pre-season. Through four games Brown has 36 total tackles (18 solo, two for loss), two interceptions, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery, continuing to be an every-down presence in the middle of the Bills defense. Bradham is an every-down asset as well, but has 11 less tackles, and only one splash play – a Week 1 sack. It is still hard to split Brown and Bradham, both who rank as borderline LB2/3s (slightly higher when playing at home), but I’m now giving the edge slightly to Brown.
There is often a defensive player scoring well that the IDP community does a bit of a double take on, and this year it’s Malcolm Smith. Judging whether this is a flash in the pan, of a developing trend isn’t always easy, but Smith has been an every-down player for the Raiders every week so far, and his scoring is thanks to his tackle production more so than splash plays. Smith has 37 total tackles (two for loss) and just one sack and one forced fumble, but his key statistic is that he has played 300 snaps. Only Preston Brown (308) has played more as an inside linebacker. I expect Smith’s high snap count to continue because the Raider’s offense is average at-best, while Smith’s role looks secure in the middle. I like Smith as a solid LB2 for the rest of the year.
Chris Conte has stepped in to replace Major Wright following an injury in Tampa Bay and not looked back. Despite missing the majority of the Buccaneers Week 1 game, Conte ranks as a DB1 and has posted double-digit fantasy scores in each of his last three starts. He’s playing well enough to keep his starting job, so have no fear if you want to grab him from waivers.
Another player who essentially missed Week 1 is Corey Graham thanks to a concussion. Graham got back on the field in Week 2 though, and has scored as a DB1 since. In fact, excluding Week 1, Graham is the No.1 fantasy defensive back, following up on his solid displays last year as a hybrid safety/cornerback for the Bills defense. It doesn’t hurt of course having a tackle-happy stat crew, so don’t sleep on Graham if he is available.
Week 4 Pass Rushers
The Steelers got some pressure on Flacco in Week 3 from their big-bodied 3-4 ends, as Stephon Tuitt has a sack and a hurry, while Cameron Heyward has a sack, a hit and two hurries… Khalil Mack continues to flash his ability off the edge, recording a sack and four hurries. He currently grades out as PFF’s No.3 3-4 OLB when rushing the passer, only behind the Broncos duo of Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware… Talking of Miller and Ware, they simply terrorized Teddy Bridgewater in Week 4, combining for two sacks, one hit and four hurries, while teammate Malik Jackson also chipped in with a hit and six hurries. David Carr will be in for a long game on Sunday… Another pass rush unit that totally dominated at the weekend was certainly the Bengals. All four starters recorded sacks and combined for six sacks, five hits and eight hurries. Geno Atkins and starred with two sacks, but Carlos Dunlap (one sack, one hit, three hurries) and Michael Johnson (one sack, two hits and three hurries) also served their fantasy owners well. Johnson has moved out of the upside DL4 range into DL2/3, depending on matchup… Keeping with dominant displays, the Jets were plain scary in London. Leonard Williams had four hits and six hurries before he sprained an ankle, while Muhammed Wilkerson had two sacks and three hurries. They now have a bye week to get Williams healthy again, and to reintroduce Sheldon Richardson after his four-game suspension. Unfortunately for the Redskins (the Jets Week 5 opponents), All-Pro LT Trent Williams won’t be able to block three players at once… The Rams fearsome foursome had mixed success against Arizona. Chris Long (one sack, one hurry) and James Laurinaitis (one sack, three hits, one hurry) both brought down Carson Palmer, while premier pass rushers Robert Quinn (one hit, three hurries) and Aaron Donald (three hurries) did not… Jadeveon Clowney generated three hurries in Week 4, but still hasn’t registered a sack. Interestingly he grades out as PFF’s third-best 3-4 outsider ‘backer against the run though… Jared Allen’s debut for Carolina was a quiet one. He played 35 snaps and only had one hit… Mychal Kendricks was blanked by Trent Williams, hence the intrigue for the Jets-Redskins clash in Week 5… Two sacks and three hurries has piqued my interest in Melvin Ingram, who is playing an every-down role for the Chargers. He’s worth a second look in big play scoring systems…
Week 4 Observations
Sean Spence had two sacks on his 50 snaps filling in for the injured Ryan Shazier. If Shazier can stay healthy he is a very exciting IDP option. It’s a big if though looking at his track record. Let’s hope he isn’t another Sean Lee… Antrel Rolle was carted off the field in Week 4, and replaced by Harold Jones-Quartey. Keep an eye on Rolle’s status for the coming game… Chiefs’ rookie cornerback Marcus Peters gave up 4-of-5 targets for 81yds and a TD last week. That’s 5 TDs in four games, which leads the league… Johnathan Cyprien was back, and he played all 81 defensive snaps for the Jags, recording an impressive 14 total tackles (11 solo). He’s a DB1 each week he is healthy… Jerrell Freeman left the field after just three snaps with a groin injury and did not return. Monitor his usage in practice this week… Atlanta benched a lot of defensive starters in the latter parts of their blowout win over the Texans, but Justin Durant only played seven snaps, having suffered a first quarter elbow injury… The lack of clarity with regards to the Giants MLB got no clearer this week. Jon Beason started, and played 33 snaps, while Uani’ Unga played just 20. You can’t play either until we know more… The Bills front four of Mario Williams, Jerry Hughes, Kyle Williams and Marcel Dareus didn’t record a single sack of Eli Manning… Clay Matthews now has 10 missed tackles, which leads all inside linebackers… No team is blitzing their defensive backs more than the Rams. Mark Barron leads all DBs in blitzes with 23, while LaMarcus Joyner ranks third with 17.
Guys I Like
Jarvis Jenkins vs Chiefs
Jenkins? Yup! It is a bit of a left-field play suggesting Jenkins but he’s on a sack streak (three in two games) and the Bears play the Chiefs in Week 4, whose O-Line have allowed 14 sacks so far this year. To put that into context that is as many sacks as the following offensive lines have combined; Jets, Bengals, Cowboys, Ravens, Giants, Bills, Cardinals, Falcons and Patriots. Yes, the nine best offensive lines have allowed as many sacks as the Chiefs! Start Jenkins….
Stephon Tuitt & Cameron Heyward vs Chargers
If the Dolphins weren’t on a bye you’d see the names of their opponents here, but the Chargers haven’t been much better. Tuitt and Heyward were both top-five fantasy DLs last week, and they have a chance to repeat that feat against a Chargers O-Line that has conceded on average 2.25 sacks and 11 hits + hurries per game.
D’Qwell Jackson vs Texans
The groin injury to Jerrell Freeman with a short week ahead suggests he won’t be a player for the Colts in Week 5, so Jackson will benefit and potentially rack up a higher tackle total than usual. Also, the Texans home crew is one of the most favorable for awarding tackles, and with the Bills, Giants and Redskins crews all inactive, there are few better matchups this week.
James Laurinaitis vs Packers
Laurinaitis has been a player who has gradually been dropping down my rankings in the last two seasons, mainly because of the presence of Alec Ogletree alongside him sharing the points scoring opportunities. With Ogletree out I’m expecting a higher tackle output than usual, and his role in Gregg Williams defensive scheme last week (one sack, three hits, one hurry) bodes well for potential splash play production.
Johnathan Cyprien vs Buccaneers
Cyprien showed he was ready to step straight in for Jacksonville last week, posting 14 total tackles, and this week he gets to face off against Jameis Winston, who has thrown seven interceptions so far in his rookie career, including four last week. Cyprien only has one interception as a pro, but snagged seven in his college career…
Guys I Don’t Like
Vic Beasley vs Redskins
After seeing Fletcher Cox get totally shut down by LT Trent Williams, I’m not confident that a rookie edge-rusher will be able to make an impression on a perennial Pro Bowler. Beasley has been decent in his first four games as a pro, but this is a big ask.
Chandler Jones vs Cowboys
I rank Jones as one of the league’s best fantasy ends, but he’ll be up against one of the league’s pass-blocking tackles in Tyvon Smith this week. Smith has yet to give up a single sack on 143 pass blocking plays this season, and has only conceded one hit and two hurries, and with that in mind I can’t see how Jones posts DL1 numbers this week.
Jon Beason & Uani Unga vs 49ers
With both players snap counts under 50 percent, and little clarity as to which of the two players will assume the lead role as the Giants MLB, neither can be considered startable until the situation is resolved.
Brian Cushing vs Colts
I’m a huge Cushing fan. He’s previously been a dynamic playmaker and currently is an every-down player for the Texans defense, yet his fantasy scores are not there. Through four games he has 32 total tackles, but only 20 are solos, despite playing 275 snaps (8th most for ILBs), and I’m scratching my head as to why he isn’t scoring more. I’d bench him until further notice.
Morgan Burnett vs Rams
If this seems like a “no brainer” because Burnett is currently hurt, I would disagree. There have been positive reports on Burnett in the last few weeks yet we have still not seen him take the field. Clearly players can have an instant impact when returning (see Cyprien), but this prolonged absence is starting to concern me, and I want to see Burnett play before I plug him in now.
Kenny Vaccaro vs Eagles
We’ve been waiting for Vaccaro to break out ever since his rookie season, and with hopes reignited for this season he has not lived up to expectations. So far in 2015 he has turned in two okay performances and two duds, but it has all been tackle points. He’s offered no splash plays and unless you’re headed for 90+ total tackles, that’s not good enough to be a fantasy starter.
