IDP Nation: Week 9
Another week in the books, and another step closer to the fantasy playoffs. For me, this is the time of season when you’re in one of three modes, and their appropriate mindsets…
You’re going to make the playoffs, or are at least very confident of doing so. If this is the case you need to start looking at strength of schedules, and how good, or bad, matchups are for teams and players during Week 14-16 (the fantasy playoffs). Start identifying players that have the best matchups during those three weeks, and get them on your roster.
You’re in playoff contention. You’re scrambling for ways to strengthen and push yourselves firmly into the playoff picture. This means trades and waiver wire additions to upgrade your starters
- You’re out of contention. If you’re in a dynasty or keeper league you should be thinking about prepping for next year. Trade for, and grab upside players wherever you can. Start thinking about a rebuild perhaps, and think about where this year went wrong. The draft? Injuries? Bad luck? You can’t get better if you don’t understand the reasons for your previous failures…
With that being said, let’s start this week by looking at some potential waiver wire grabs. I’ll have more on Week 14-16 players in the coming weeks…
Week 9 Suggested Pickups
Jared Allen’s trade to Carolina got off to a slow start thanks to an injury and bye week, but the last two games have seen him play 143 snaps and flash some of his old pass rushing skills that made him a lock for double-digit sacks every season. Over the last two weeks Allen has notched up a couple of sacks, four hits and three hurries, as well as ten total tackles, albeit just four solos. He is a highly capable veteran, and I like Allen to have borderline DL1 rankings in weeks when the matchup is in his favor, but expect him to score more regularly as a DL 2/3.
Raiders’ rookie Mario Edward Jr has been on the field for 172-of-223 snaps in the last three weeks as a starter, and has generated pressure in all three games, including half a sack. Edwards profiled as more of a run-stopper coming out of college, and 12 total tackles (one for loss) in those three starts testifies to that, so I’m confident he has a decent floor. As a rookie, just three starts into his career, his two hits, four hurries and a batted pass pique my interest enough as to exactly where his upside is, enough to grab him and stash him on my roster for a few weeks while he gives fantasy owners a clearer idea of his scoring potential.
A defensive lineman without any sacks is rarely a viable fantasy play, but Kerry Wynn has 41 total tackles (27 solo, and five for a loss), which leads all defensive lineman, and has meant he’s scored five or more fantasy points in every game bar Week 1. If you’re struggling at defensive end, you can do a lot worse than plug in a guaranteed point-scorer every week, and it’s much more appealing than streaming match-up plays in the hope you can avoid another duck egg from the position.
Week 8 marked the return of Vontaze Burfict for the Bengals, and although he only played 37-of-76 snaps, he was a starter on the weakside. Considering he did miss the first seven games of the season, but the team are 7-0, it should come as no surprise that they want to ease Burfict back in gently, more so when considering his importance to the defense. Burfict may take another week of two to get back up to playing an every-down role, but it is coming. Burfict has been a fantasy LB1 before, and led the league in tackles in 2013, so best to move quickly and decisively to grab him. He is exactly the type of player you want to target to strengthen your roster for the fantasy playoffs, as I believe by Week 14 he’ll have re-established himself as a LB1.
While the disappointment of Zach Brown still stings, the Titans remain a team we want to target for the fantasy potential of their three-down inside linebacker, which is currently Avery Williamson. Williamson’s tackle per opportunity (tPOP) numbers last season were poor, hence my less optimistic outlook for him than most, but he seems to have won out as the main man in the middle for Tennessee, so warrants our attention. A poor fantasy return last week, just one solo tackle, doesn’t fill me with confidence, but he did have 14 total tackles (one for a loss), a sack and an interception in the two games prior, so he can be a contributor for your team. Williamson profiles as an inconsistent LB3/4 who should be doing better, but is worth adding because he should be scoring like a LB2/3.
In the last two weeks Mark Barron has played 149 snaps at WLB, and recorded 26 total tackles (17 solo). He’s still classified as a defensive back. I don’t think I need to say anything else, other than please come back and read the rest of the article after you’ve submitted your claim on him!
While on the theme of tackle-monster safeties, Dashon Goldson deserves to be mentioned. Washington were on a bye week in Week 8 so Goldson will not be an obvious grab for any owners who sort by ‘last week’s score’ when looking for their latest additions. Goldson has been on fire recently, recording 36 total tackles (20 solo) in his last three games, and was the top-end DB1 in that period. Week 9 pits the Redskins against the Patriots, a team that consistently ranks as one of the better matchups for fantasy safeties. I like Goldson as a decent DB2 this week, and as a DB2/3 for the rest of the season.
49ers rookie Jaquiski Tartt made his first start in Week 8, playing 69-of-69 snaps, having been on the field for 48-of-72 the week before. Over those two games Tartt totaled 15 total tackles (12 solo), one for a loss and a forced fumble, notching double-digit fantasy scores in both games. With San Francisco at 2-6, coming off a roster depleting off-season, it looks set up for Tartt to be given plenty of snaps over the rest of the year, as they kick the tires on what is currently on their roster. There is plenty to like about Tartt’s hard-hitting playing style for fantasy owners, and he has the potential to start rising up rankings over the next few weeks.
Talking of safeties and their floors, Michael Mitchell has shown his is pretty high this year as his worst score in the RotoWorld IDP Scoring system so far this year has been 6.8 (Week 3 @ Rams). Over the last four weeks he has scored 10.5, 13.5, 9.0 and 14.0 and while that isn’t world beating as he ranked 27th, 16th, 33rd and 6th amongst safeties in each respective week, over those four games he’s been the 9th highest scoring fantasy safety. Attention will always be paid to the dynamic, high-profile points scorers, but ignoring consistent and under-valued performers like Mitchell will cost you in the long run. Mitchell is an ideal player to roster and plug and play in case of an injury, bye week, loss of form or bad matchup.
Week 9 Observations
Cameron Wake’s resurgence was short lived unfortunately, as he suffered a torn Achilles in Week 8 that has landed him on injured reserve for the rest of the season. Derrick Shelvey is the direct on-field replacement, but in reality it means more will be needed from Olivier Vernon and Ndamukong Suh… Jason Pierre-Paul has signed for the Giants on a one-year deal. He might still be another week away from significant playing time, but he’s a player to keep an eye on, and perhaps even stash… Jurrell Casey had 0.5 sacks this week, quietly taking his season total to four, supplemented by six hits and 15 hurries. He’s not getting much love considering the Titans on-field woes, but hasn’t lost any of the ability that had owners wondering if he had DL1 potential in recent seasons… J.J. Watt was devastating last week. Two sacks, SEVEN hits and four hurries. For comparison’s sake, it’s worth noting that fellow 3-4 DE Calais Campbell only has six quarterback hits for the entire season, while fellow NFL sack leader, Chandler Jones also only has six QB hits… If you’re a Michael Wilhoite owner, don’t overreact to his mediocre score this week, it was a bad matchup. I like him as a low-end LB2 as long as he remains a starter… James Laurinaitis is only a LB3 right now. His owners dodged a massive bullet last week with him recording a safety. It was his seventh straight game this season with five or less solo tackles, and he has tumbled down rankings heavily… Aaron Donald may only have one sack in his last four games, but has generated five QB hits and 13 hurries in that span. He’s still an elite DL option each week… Despite rumors that Pro-Bowl safety Eric Weddle was on the trade block, the deadline passed with Weddle still a Charger. He’s missed a couple of weeks with a groin injury and it’s been Jaheel Addae who has replaced him in the lineup. Addae is worth stashing in deep, deep leagues… Despite one of his better games of the season, C.J. Mosely’s 9 total tackles last week meant he has still yet to record double-digit tackles in any game this season. He’s slid down my rankings to be a mid-to-low LB2 until his scoring picks up… Vincent Rey played 74 snaps last week. He must be owned in all formats, despite the return of Vontaze Burfict… Ryan Shazier has now started and played an every-down role in both of the last two games, recording four total tackles and 0.5 sacks, then eight total tackles and 0.5 sacks. Owners hoping for LB1 production will be disappointed, but he needs a few more weeks under his belt before we can get a better handle on his scoring potential, now he is healthy… Gerald McCoy didn’t have a sack last week, but did cause three hits and three hurries. He’s still a DL2 for me most weeks… Kwon Alexander had a monster game, recording an interception, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery and 11 total tackles, not to mention they play called back when he was returning a turnover down the field before being chased down by Julio Jones. As an every-down player he has LB2 potential, but he hasn’t delivered that type of scoring consistently, yet… William Moore missed Week 8, being replaced in the lineup by Kemal Ishmael, who can be a DB2/3 when a starter. Moore is expected back this week though, so get him back in your lineups… Deone Bucannon continues to see the majority of his snaps as the Cardinals RILB, but is still designated as a DB on all fantasy sites. He’s a DB1 because of his tackle opportunities… The Jets are doing a good job of keeping all their stud defensive lineman on the field. Of 64 possible snaps last week, Muhammad Wilkerson played 60, Sheldon Richardson 58, and Leonard Williams 44… Khalil Mack had 5 hurries last week, taking his season total to 28. Only Justin Houston, Cameron Jordan and Tamba Hali have more. He only has four sacks on the season, and I’m sensing a breakout game is just round the corner… Ziggy Ansah only played 38-of-67 snaps, but did generate six hurries. You don’t get fantasy points for hurries though, so it was a poor performance against a porous Chiefs O-Line in London… Rookie Byron Jones started at safety for the Cowboys this week, and although he had a weaker game statistically than when he has been a backup, it is significant, especially in cornerback required leagues as he is generally classified as one… Morgan Burnett played 68-of-68 snaps in his first playing time since Week 2. He only managed two solo tackles, but should quickly get back to his free scoring DB1 ways… DeMarcus Ware had a sack and a hurry in his return, but low scores in general for the Broncos’ IDPs were due to the fact the defense only played 54 snaps… Luke Kuechly posted 14 total tackles on Monday Night Football. In his three games back he has had double-digit tackles in all three games, to the total of 39 total tackles. He’s re-secured his spot as the No.1 fantasy linebacker in any given week.
With six teams on bye this week, some of the best (and worst) matchups will not be in action this week, and neither will be multiple top-end IDP plays. It means those DL/LB/DB3s on your bench are suddenly vaulted into playing this week. Here are some of the players to plug in, and be wary of this week.
Guys I Like
Jared Allen vs Packers
Having mentioned Allen as a potential waiver wire add due to his recent form, and with the likes of J.J. Watt, Calais Campbell, Ziggy Ansah and Michael Bennett all on a bye week, it should be no surprise that Allen sneaks into DL2 consideration this week. Clearly more at home in the Panthers system, Allen, a former Viking, should be primed to have his third straight game with a sack.
Malik Jackson vs Colts
Jackson has scored over nine fantasy points in five of his seven games this season, and posted a double-figure score in each of his last three games. He’s got four sacks on the year so far as he’ll often get left one-on-one while the blocking scheme tries to account for Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. The Colts gave up two sacks, six hits and 17 hurries to defensive lineman alone last week, and with a pass rush as fearsome as Denver’s coming to town, it bodes for a long day this week for Luck, and a good day for Broncos D-Lineman.
Mychal Kendricks vs Cowboys
Finally back on the field in Week 7, Kendricks played 55-of-64 snaps, before the Eagles has their bye week. With an extra week to heal we can be confident in Kendricks being back to much closer to 100%, and with a good matchup on the cards against their divisional rival Cowboys, Kendricks sneaks back into LB1 consideration this week.
Stephone Anthony vs Titans
It’s now been five consecutive weeks that Anthony has recorded ten or more fantasy points, averaging eight total tackles per game and adding a handful of splash plays. He’s been improving as the season wears on, and is first double-digit tackle game of the season, last week, hopefully marks his development into a solid LB2.
Mark Barron and Deone Bucannon vs ANYONE, ANYTIME
Both Barron and Bucannon are playing as fully fledged linebackers. They are designated as fantasy defensive backs. I know Bucannon is on a bye this week, but this is notice that Barron and Bucannon are insta-starts every week until their on-field usage changes.
William Moore vs 49ers
I’m expecting Moore to make his return this week after just a short layoff. He’d been climbing back up rankings and starting to push back into DB1 consideration, and this week, with Blaine Gabbert now starting for the 49ers, I’d want to try and take advantage by starting the Falcons strong safety. If he doesn’t play, it’s Kemal Ishmael you want instead.
Mike Adams vs Broncos
This is more of a ‘criminally underrated’ than a recommended start. Adams is a DB1 for me. He scored as one last season, and despite missing a game, ranks as the No.14 DB in our scoring system this season. I’m happy ranking Adams as a DB1 most weeks, and have him above Charles Woodson, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Calvin Pryor, Landon Collins and T.J. McDonald, just to name a few. That should tell you how much I like his consistent scoring and dependability.
Guys I Don’t Like
Chandler Jones vs Redskins
Yup, the league’s sack-leader is on my list of players to downgrade this week. Why? It’s the same old case of facing off against an elite pass-blocking offensive tackle, namely Trent Williams. Williams has yet to give up a sack, and having seen Jones fail to score a single point against a similarly talent left tackle in Tyron Smith in Week 4, I’m giving the advantage to Williams. I’ll be knocking Jones down to a low-end DL1 at least.
Jason Pierre-Paul vs Buccaneers
While I’m ecstatic that JPP will be returning to the field in the near future, I encourage all of his fantasy owners to take a slow and cautious approach to getting him back in your lineups. We’re still not sure how his hand injury will affect his pass rush, when exactly he will be back on the field, and how slowly the Giants will ease him in. There are just too many questions right now. Until we have some of the necessary answers, keep JPP on your bench.
James Laurinaitis vs Vikings
Long gone are the days that Laurinaitis was a LB1. Even the thought of him as a LB2 seem a distant memory now. He is only hanging onto LB3 value by the skin of his teeth in my mind. I’d rather play upside ‘backers like Von Miller or Justin Houston, simply because they’ll probably post nearly as many tackles as Laurinaitis does these days, and have a much higher chance of a splash play. Saved by a safety last week, Laurinaitis needs to be benched immediately, as I wouldn’t even trust him in my lineup in a top-three matchup for linebackers.
Paul Worrilow vs 49ers
Worrilow gets a mention for a similar reason to Laurinaitis – he is under-performing badly. In 5-of-8 games he has recorded only five total tackles or less, and has only added a single splash play – a Week 7 interception. Considering Worrilow started 2014 with 29 total tackles in the first two weeks, and had 54 total tackles in a three week span back in 2013, his low tackle production is like a death knell for his fantasy value. He’s a low ceiling LB3 now in my rankings until he proves otherwise.
T.J. McDonald vs Vikings
Keeping with the theme of players who have dropped off dramatically from their performances in recent seasons, McDonald, a top-three fantasy defensive back last season current ranks outside the top 40. McDonald doesn’t look quite as dynamic this year, and is on pace to record lower totals in all major statistical categories for fantasy scoring. He’s fallen from a DB1 to a DB2 for the time being.
