Who’s this year’s Kiko Alonso, or C.J. Mosley? What about the long-term IDP prospect we want to stash on our dynasty league bench? Folks in IDP leagues face these questions and many others in fantasy draft season, and it can be tough to sift through the myriad of rookie defensive players. Luckily for you, I did the work for you. Here’s my Top 25 rookie IDPs with both short-term and long-term fantasy outlooks.
1. Stephone Anthony, LB Saints
It’s a tight duel at the top of our IDP rookie rankings, but we give the slight edge to Anthony, who will slide in as a three-down starter for the Saints starting Week 1. We’ve seen a much less athletic player in Curtis Lofton post solid seasons in the same role for New Orleans, so Anthony should be fantasy-relevant from the get-go. Whether he can follow in the footsteps of recent rookie linebackers and record an LB1 performance in his debut season remains to be seen.
Fantasy Profile – Anthony has long-term LB1 value in dynasty leagues, and is preferred to Kendricks as he is a more typical, run-stuffing Mike linebacker. He’ll have LB2/3 value as a rookie.
2. Eric Kendricks, LB Vikings
A highly impressive coverage linebacker, Kendricks played in a pro-style defense at UCLA, so should quickly step into a starting role for the Vikings. Former LB1 Chad Greenway is on his last legs and Kendricks will have every chance to win sub-package duties as a rookie, and lock in LB2 value in the short-term.
Fantasy Profile - Eric should be expected to join his brother, Mychal, as a future LB1 over the next few seasons. He’ll be a more dynamic scorer than Anthony due to his ability in coverage.
3. Vic Beasley, DE/LB Falcons
Comparisons with Von Miller are perhaps a little strong, but the eighth overall selection, Vic Beasley is a dynamic edge-rusher who should feature heavily for a Falcons team screaming out for a player to generate pressure. He has the potential to play a three-down role, but will likely be kept on a more limited snap count as a rookie. His designation on your fantasy host site is crucial to his value – as a defensive end he is much more valuable.
Fantasy Profile – He’ll play the LEO role for the Falcons’ defense which is a tick for fantasy owners, and has the potential to record double-digit sacks, but perhaps not in Year One. His year to year value will be volatile, like elite edge-threats Von Miller and Justin Houston, if he remains classified as a linebacker.
4. Landon Collins, S Giants
Probably the safest defensive rookie for fantasy purposes this year, Collins should be highly motivated by not being selected in round one in April. The Giants traded up to get him, and he’ll slot into a safety corps that has seen Antrel Rolle (now in Chicago) record several DB1 seasons. He’ll be used up near the line of scrimmage and could post 100-plus tackles as a rookie.
Fantasy Profile – Expect borderline DB1 scoring as a rookie. He’s got the potential to be a top-five fantasy safety in New York.
5. Randy Gregory, DE Cowboys
A case could be made that Gregory is the best pure pass-rusher in the class, but off-field issues and character concerns conspired to generate a draft day fall until the Cowboys swooped on him in round two. It’s a perfect fit for a team that was in desperate need of edge-pressure, and he has a chance to be a Week 1 starter.
Fantasy Profile – Could well turn out to be the No.1 defensive end in the class. Will have to win a camp battle to be a starter, and is more likely to see situational usage in 2015, especially once Greg Hardy returns. He’s a future DE2 with upside.
6. Paul Dawson, LB Bengals
A somewhat divisive player in fantasy circles, Dawson doesn’t have eye-popping workout numbers suggesting he may struggle in the pro game, but was a highly productive player for TCU, leading the Big 12 in total tackles and tackles for loss last year. He slipped on draft day, selected with the last pick in the third round, after posting poor numbers at the Combine, and now finds himself in a crowded Bengals’ linebacking corps. Dawson will have to earn any playing time and may not see much of the field as a rookie, outside of being an injury replacement.
Fantasy Profile – I’m not calling him Chris Borland 2.0, but, Dawson has that ‘not physically gifted, but always productive’ profile. He’s more of a stash for future seasons than a 2015 starter.
7. Denzel Perryman, LB Chargers
A productive linebacker out of The U will always draw attention, and Perryman is no exception. He played mainly in the middle for the ‘Canes, but can play on the outside, although he looks set to compete with Donald Butler and Manti T’eo for snaps on the inside in San Diego. Butler and T’eo have both failed to deliver in recent seasons, so Perryman has a chance to make an immediate impact.
Fantasy Profile – Monitor the pre-season and practices to get a handle on Perryman’s value this season, but consider him a LB3 as a starter. His dynasty value is tied into whether he can outplay Butler and T’eo.
8. Shaq Thompson, LB Panthers
If you’re looking for a Thompson comparison look no further than teammate Thomas Davis. A converted safety playing linebacker, Thompson is undersized, but also athletic. He’s capable in coverage so he’ll be a three-down player in the future, but not in 2015, as those duties will stay with Luke Kuechly and Davis.
Fantasy Profile – Davis managed LB2 seasons alongside the tackle-monster that is Kuechly, and Thompson can do the same. A hamstrung pull has him behind in camp, so he may be slow out of the blocks as a rookie.
9. Dante Fowler, DE Jaguars
Fowler suffered an ACL tear in his opening days of Jaguars camp which will cost him the entire season, a huge blow for the third overall pick. In just 25 college games, Fowler racked up 34 TFLs, 14.5 sacks and five forced fumbles, so will be greatly missed from a team in need of edge-pressure. He’s still a huge talent and will be back next year in the fantasy-friendly LEO role on the Jags’ defense.
Fantasy Profile – He’ll slide further than he should in rookie drafts because of the injury, and like Beasley, owners need to be aware of his position designation, as he’s much more valuable as a DE. Has potential to be a DE1, and would only be a hair behind Beasley if healthy.
10. Shane Ray, OLB Broncos
The debate on Ray seems to be whether he was a savvy college player, or a naturally instinctive athlete. Regardless, the Broncos traded up to take him in round one and add him to their outside linebacker duo of Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware, and he’ll see time in the rotation as a rookie. Remarkably efficient when rushing the passer in college, Ray’s true fantasy value won’t be realized until he surpasses Ware (next season?)
Fantasy Profile – Rey’s value will be capped by playing time and the need to earn three-down duties, which seems unlikely on a team with Von Miller, Danny Trevathan and Brandon Marshall. His long-term value offers a similar story unless he is a top-level pass-rusher.
11. Benardrick McKinney, LB Texans
At 6’4” and 243 pounds, McKinney ran a 4.66 40-yard dash and 40 ½ vertical at the Combine and people stood up and took notice. He joins a Texans’ roster with only Brian Cushing ahead of him on the depth chart, but wasn’t able to be an every-down ‘backer in college, so there are question marks he needs to overcome to be fantasy-relevant. Cushing has been a little exposed in the last two years (as well as often injured), so McKinney has every chance, but must improve his coverage skills.
Fantasy Profile – Feels a little boom-or-bust to me. A physically gifted player who was unable to translate that into dominant college play joining a team with a clear pathway to playing extended time. If he hits the ground running he could be a LB2/3 as soon as this year, but could equally prove he’s another Brandon Spikes.
12. Jake Ryan, LB Packers
The Packers have had a series of linebackers in recent seasons that have drawn fantasy interest but not quite lived up to the hype. A.J. Hawk was a solid LB3/4, Brad Jones did a job, D.J. Smith underwhelmed and Des Bishop couldn’t stay healthy long enough to be a regular LB1. Well, Jake Ryan might be the long-term answer if third-year man Sam Barrington can’t hold down the job (alongside Clay Matthews) this year as he’s proven solid against the run in college, something Barrington wasn’t in his time as a starter in 2014.
Fantasy Profile – Showed enough to project as an every-down player at the NFL level, Ryan’s value might not be realized until 2016, although Matthews could move back outside opening a spot for Ryan with Barrington. Watch this space in the preseason.
13. Owa Odighizuwa, DE Giants
A physical specimen with heavy hands, Odighizuwa missed all of 2013 due to hip injuries, but exploded back last year with 11.5 tackles for loss and six sacks as a 13-game starter last year. He’s explosive off the edge and looks to be an ideal fit for the Giants on the edge.
Fantasy Profile – With Jason Pierre-Paul’s future in New York undecided, and a combination of Damontre Moore and Robert Ayers used on the opposite side, Odighizuwa has an opportunity to play significant time from 2016 onwards. He’ll be used to spell and rotate this year, although DC Steve Spagnuolo has been creative with getting his front four on the field in the past.
14. Leonard Williams, DL Jets
To many draftniks Williams was the most talented player in the draft, and his fall to the Jets as the sixth overall pick was a source for incredulity. He’ll join two of the league’s best young defensive linemen in Muhammed Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson in New York, although Richardson is suspended for four games to start the season. Williams will be his direct replacement for those opening weeks, but will likely be part of a rotation system after Richardson returns. Williams has DL2/3 potential this year as a result.
Fantasy Profile – Williams might lead all rookie defensive linemen in fantasy points at the end of the year, but, he’s a high floor, low ceiling guy and a dynasty DL1 ranking might be a step too far. Beasley, Fowler and Gregory all have much more upside, and less competition.
15. Hau’oli Kikaha, OLB Saints
Kikaha is likely to be a significant part of the Saints’ defense this season following the release of OLB Junior Galette, but being an edge-rushing outside ‘backer doesn’t have a huge fantasy appeal. To be fantasy-relevant on a weekly basis as a 3-4 OLB players need to post 50-plus total tackles and comfortably break double-digit sacks, which is a huge ask for a rookie. That said I have high hopes for Kikaha, who recorded 32 sacks and 40.5 TFLs in his last two years for the Huskies in the Pac-12.
Fantasy Profile – Kikaha is virtually guaranteed a Week 1 start, and now is a contender for three-down duties (alongside Stephone Anthony), competing against veterans Anthony Spencer and Parys Haralson. He’ll be a risk/reward scorer with LB3 potential.
16. Trey Flowers, DE Patriots
An underrated player joining an underrated front seven, Flowers would draw favorable comparisons with teammate Rob Ninkovich and is an interesting sleeper if you don’t mind stashing a player for a season. Flowers was twice voted as a second-team selection on the All-SEC team and recorded 47.5 tackles for loss and 18 sacks in his 39-games for the Razorbacks. More impressively, ProFootballFocus’ college football analysts rated Flowers are the most productive 4-3 pass-rusher last season, generating 61 QB pressures in 365 pass rush snaps.
Fantasy Profile – Double-digit sack upside might be too much to ask from Flowers, but players like Ninkovich and Calais Campbell have been very successful fantasy players with the same limitations. Stash Flowers on your bench (or taxi squad) and await solid DL2 performances, with a glimmer of future DL1 value if everything clicks.
17. James Sample, S Jaguars
Sample looked like an ideal foil for Jonathan Cyprien in the Jacksonville secondary, but a broken arm will sideline him until August, and likely mean he’ll be on the back foot when trying to catch Sergio Brown in the battle to start at free safety. He snagged four interceptions and defensed eight passes last year, but also showed he could dip his shoulder and crowd the line of scrimmage when needed to provide support against the run. The Jags’ defensive scheme will allow the free safety to be more aggressive, so there is potential for value there, as shown by Josh Evans’ 90 total tackles last season.
Fantasy Profile – Monitor Sample on the waiver wire in the first few weeks to see if he is given the free safety job when he gets back to full speed. He could well offer situational DB3 value. Long-term I’m not sure he’ll ever reach DB1 value, but could post DB2 numbers if he shows some playmaking ability.
18. Preston Smith, OLB/DE Redskins
A versatile chess piece with a good motor, Smith isn’t a wildly different player than teammate Ryan Kerrigan, who Smith will line-up opposite once Kerrigan returns. His competition to start is Trent Murphy, who he should overcome, but whether he offers enough big-play ability to be a fantasy asset remains to be seen.
Fantasy Profile – Smith never had double-digit sacks in college, and only 21.5 TFLs in his final two seasons, but he’s likely to start early in his career and see plenty of snaps. Expect Smith to have fringe fantasy value as Kerrigan did in his first few seasons.
19. Jaquiski Tartt, S 49ers
Not from a recognized football program, Tartt has drawn comparisons to Kam Chancellor for his size (6’1”, 221 pounds) and heavy-hitting playing style, and also offers some play-making abilities as well, having recorded six interceptions in college. He played free safety in college, but is expected to eventually be the replacement for Antoine Bethea.
Fantasy Profile – 49ers’ safeties have been productive fantasy players for years, so that’s a big plus for potential Tartt owners, but he may not see that value for at least a year or two. Bethea hasn’t missed a game since 2007 and is under contract through 2017.
20. Bud Dupree, OLB Steelers
The Steelers’ ability to draft and develop linebackers has come into question in the last few years with Ryan Shazier and Jarvis Jones being high profile flops (so far), while Vince Williams, Sean Spence and Jordan Zumwalt are three additional names drafted in the last few seasons, still on the roster, but have made minimal impact. Dupree will try and break the trend, but some will be worried he’s a workout warrior after he blew up the Combine, running 4.56 with eye-watering vertical (42") and broad (11'6") jumps. He’s in a camp battle with Arthur Moats to play at LOLB, and likely gets used in pass-rushing situations and concedes run downs to Moats.
Fantasy Profile – If Dupree landed on a 4-3 team he’d have been worth rostering, but the difficulties of being a 3-4 edge-rusher for fantasy purposes on a team that haven’t delivered at linebacker in recent years sours me on his prospects.
21. Ibraheim Campbell, S Browns
At worst Campbell should stick around the league as a special teamer, but he has the profile to be more than that, especially on a team with a fantasy-friendly safety position. Both SS Donte Whitner and FS Tashaun Gipson are well established and have DB1 upside, so Campbell will likely ride the pine unless injuries force changes. His 11 career interceptions in college may lead to him being overdrafted.
Fantasy Profile – I’d consider him a handcuff of sorts in 2015, but he’s someone to attack on the waiver wire rather than draft day. He could be two or more years from starting, but if he can win a role in Cleveland he’ll rack up DB2 numbers or better.
22. Danielle Hunter, DE Vikings
Physical attributes? Check. Great workout numbers? Check. Non-stop motor? Check. SEC-level football? Check. Pass rush production? NO! 21-year old Hunter is a boom-or-bust project for Mike Zimmer to refine, and he should see playing time in his first season. Hunter will be competing for snaps in rotation with Brian Robison (old and coming off a pectoral tear) and Scott Crichton (saw time in eight games last year) opposite DL1 Everson Griffen, but will need to refine his pass rush repertoire (4.5 career sacks) if he is to win out for significant playing time.
Fantasy Profile – Could be anything. Think Margus Hunt from 2013; plenty of potential but lots of hard work needed – and it might not pay off. Don’t expect much in the way of a fantasy return while Hunter hones his craft, despite use rotational usage.
23. Clayton Geathers, S Colts
Run-stuffing, heavy-hitting, in-the-box safeties are always worth a second look in fantasy drafts and Geathers is just that. He’s even been spending some time practicing with the linebacking corps, suggesting he’ll be used close to the line of scrimmage in sub-packages. The Colts have moved on from LaRon Landry and have 34-year old Mike Adams and 29-year old Dwight Lowery manning their safety spots, so Geathers will have a chance of playing relatively quickly n his career.
Fantasy Profile – Landry, Antoine Bethea and Adams have all shown that you can score decent fantasy points as a Colts safety. Geathers could well post solid DB2 numbers if he gets that chance.
24. Kwon Alexander, OLB Buccaneers
A second-team All-SEC selection in 2014, the Buccaneers moved up four spots to pick the versatile linebacker who played both outside positions in college for LSU. Alexander will face a camp battle to play the SAM role with Danny Lansanah, who was actually pretty good last year, so is more likely going to be a backup and special-teamer as a rookie. Lavonte David is firmly entrenched on the weakside.
Fantasy Profile – There are worse linebackers to take a punt on towards the end of rookie drafts, and it’s not impossible Alexander outplays Lansanah, but the 29-year old veteran showed some playmaking ability last year (two pick-sixes), so it’s a big ask. There’s LB2 upside for Alexander, but it might not develop for a few seasons.
25. Mario Edwards, DE Raiders
Edwards has boom-or-bust written all over him. Oakland has a huge need at defensive end, as last year they only generated seven sacks out of their current crop, so they drafted Edwards 35th overall. Edwards seems a strange selection though as he wasn’t a productive pass rusher in college, only recording eight sacks in three seasons (just three in his final year), although he is movable part having lined up at end, tackle and ‘Jack’ linebacker for Florida State.
Fantasy Profile – Defensive ends that don’t record high sack totals need to post 60-plus tackles to have any fantasy value, and whether Edwards can do that is open to question. He’s a dice roll, with a very low floor.
Just missed: Henry Anderson, DE Colts, Eric Rowe, CB Eagles, Danny Shelton, DT Browns, Ramik Wilson, LB Chiefs, Ben Heeney, LB Raiders, Jordan Hicks, LB Eagles and Nate Orchard, OLB Browns.
