Ranking Outliers

The rankings you will find in these pages are an average. We took the ranks of Evan Silva, Pat Daugherty, Raymond Summerlin, Nick Mensio and Rich Hribar to formulate a composite score. Of course, there was no way we were all going to agree on every player. Some of us had unique feelings on certain guys, making them outliers. Here are the rankings and explanations:

Quarterback Rankings

Player	Raymond	Evan	Pat	Nick	Rich	Staff
Aaron Rodgers	1	2	2	2	1	1
Cam Newton	2	1	1	3	3	2
Russell Wilson	3	4	3	4	2	3
Andrew Luck	4	5	4	1	5	4
Drew Brees	5	3	6	7	4	5
Ben Roethlisberger	6	6	5	5	6	6
Tom Brady	9	8	8	6	7	7
Carson Palmer	8	7	9	9	9	8
Eli Manning	10	11	7	8	8	9
Philip Rivers	7	9	10	11	13	10
Blake Bortles	12	13	13	10	11	11
Kirk Cousins	14	12	18	14	10	12
Andy Dalton	11	10	12	18	17	13
Derek Carr	17	14	11	15	19	14
Tyrod Taylor	16	18	23	13	12	15
Tony Romo	21	15	17	16	14	16
Marcus Mariota	15	19	20	20	15	17
Matt Ryan	24	16	15	22	16	18
Ryan Tannehill	13	24	16	19	21	19
Matthew Stafford	18	22	19	12	22	20
Jameis Winston	19	20	14	17	23	21
Jay Cutler	23	17	25	23	18	22
Ryan Fitzpatrick	20	21	24	24	24	23
Alex Smith	25	23	22	27	20	24
Joe Flacco	26	25	21	21	25	25
Robert Griffin III	22	30	32	25	26	26
Brock Osweiler	27	27	28	26	27	27
Teddy Bridgewater	29	26	27	28	28	28
Jared Goff	28	28	26	29	31	29
Sam Bradford	34	29	29	30	30	30
Colin Kaepernick	31	32	31	31	29	31
Paxton Lynch	32	31	30	37	34	32

Quarterback Outliers

Rich Hribar had Tyrod Taylor 12. The composite rank was 16.4.

Taylor carried one of the lowest passing floors due to his offensive environment, averaging 13.7 passing points per game (26th) and just 2.5 pass attempts per drive (last), but he was hyper efficient if those attempts see any type of uptick, ranking sixth in passing points per attempt (.498) and fourth in adjusted yards per attempt (8.3). Despite that passing floor, Taylor still offered one of the best floors for fantasy last season due to his rushing ability. He ran for 40 or more yards (the fantasy equivalent of a touchdown pass) in nine of his 14 games, while scoring 15 or more points in 10 of those games. Only Cam Newton averaged more rushing points per game than Taylor’s 5.8 points per contest on the ground. The concern over Sammy Watkins’ injured foot exists, but that concern is being overly priced into Taylor’s cost in drafts. Even in his two games without Watkins, Taylor scored 14.5 and 23.4 fantasy points because of his rushing floor and how those points are weighted for quarterback scoring, while his volume has nowhere to go but up.

Raymond Summerlin had Ryan Tannehill 13. The composite rank was 18.6.

After a solid top-10 finish in 2014, Ryan Tannehill took a step back last season, finishing as the QB17 and posting just the 24th-most points per game. Based on that season, it is understandable that some rank Tannehill at the bottom of the QB2 tier, but there are reasons to believe he can once again flirt with QB1 status, chief among them is the arrival of head coach Adam Gase. Gase oversaw Peyton Manning’s record-breaking season in 2013 and helped Jay Cutler to arguably the most efficient season of his career despite losing every important offensive weapon to injury. He is a proven offensive mind, and his arrival could prompt a career-year for Tannehill, especially with the passing weapons around him as good as they have ever been. If Tannehill can rediscover his rushing form – he posted a career-low 141 yards last year – he could take a big step forward in Gase’s first season.

Raymond Summerlin had Tony Romo 21. The composite rank was 16.6.

There are certainly injury concerns which will push Tony Romo down draft boards, but the bigger concerns are volume and efficiency. Despite throwing the ball just 29 times a week, Romo managed to score the ninth-most points per game in 2014 by posting a career-best 7.8 touchdown percentage and averaging 8.5 yards per attempt. Both numbers were well above his career averages, and the touchdown percentage was almost a full point higher than his previous career best. Unsurprisingly, he saw a marked decrease in efficiency over his 121 attempts last year. After the Cowboys selected Ezekiel Elliott with the No. 4 overall pick, there is little reason to think they will suddenly become a pass-heavy attack, meaning Romo will have to recreate his 2014 efficiency to even stick near the bottom of the QB1 class. He was poised for some serious regression even before the injuries hit last year, and not much has changed.

Running Back Rankings

Player	Raymond	Evan	Pat	Nick	Rich	Staff
Le’Veon Bell	1	4	1	1	2	2
David Johnson	2	2	3	4	1	2
Todd Gurley	5	3	2	2	5	3
Ezekiel Elliott	3	1	6	5	4	4
Adrian Peterson	4	6	4	3	3	4
Lamar Miller	7	5	7	6	7	6
Devonta Freeman	6	7	13	10	9	9
Doug Martin	8	12	5	8	12	9
Jamaal Charles	13	8	14	7	6	10
Mark Ingram	12	9	11	11	8	10
Eddie Lacy	10	10	9	12	10	10
LeSean McCoy	9	11	12	9	11	10
C.J. Anderson	15	14	8	18	14	14
Carlos Hyde	11	18	10	17	15	14
Thomas Rawls	17	17	16	13	13	15
Matt Forte	25	13	18	15	20	18
Jonathan Stewart	22	15	20	16	24	19
Latavius Murray	16	16	30	24	16	20
Dion Lewis	21	19	31	14	17	20
Jeremy Hill	20	25	17	19	22	21
Matt Jones	19	20	24	20	23	21
Ryan Mathews	18	21	23	27	19	22
Frank Gore	14	24	29	25	18	22
Jeremy Langford	24	26	15	21	26	22
Jay Ajayi	23	22	19	22	27	23
DeMarco Murray	32	27	21	23	21	25
Duke Johnson	28	23	27	30	29	27
Melvin Gordon	29	32	25	31	25	28
Danny Woodhead	27	29	37	28	31	30
Rashad Jennings	30	33	46	26	30	33
Giovani Bernard	35	39	22	37	32	33
Ameer Abdullah	36	30	26	39	34	33
LeGarrette Blount	31	28	44	36	28	33
T.J. Yeldon	33	34	34	34	33	34
Charles Sims	34	31	39	33	36	35
Chris Ivory	38	38	28	29	40	35
Isaiah Crowell	26	36	45	32	35	35
Derrick Henry	37	37	33	50	42	40
Justin Forsett	39	52	40	35	37	41
Karlos Williams	47	44	35	42	39	41
Arian Foster	57	35	53	40	45	46
Tevin Coleman	49	54	41	44	43	46
Shane Vereen	42	47	38	70	38	47
Bilal Powell	41	41	43	60	52	47
Theo Riddick	40	40	32	61	65	48
DeAngelo Williams	51	45	52	43	48	48
Kenyan Drake	45	50	49	46	51	48
Kenneth Dixon	46	48	61	38	50	49
Buck Allen	50	42	42	59	53	49
C.J. Prosise	63	43	51	56	41	51

Running Back Outliers

Evan Silva had Ezekiel Elliott 1. The composite rank was 3.8.

Ranking rookies No. 1 at their positions is frowned upon in the fantasy community, and I get it. When I assess this year’s running back field, I still see Elliott as the strongest bet. Le’Veon Bell is coming off multiple ligament tears in his knee. Adrian Peterson doesn’t catch passes and is 31 1/2 years old. Todd Gurley‘s passing-game usage is also limited, and he plays on a bad team with a brutal schedule. Jamaal Charles suffered his second ACL tear last October. David Johnson is next up for me behind Elliott, but he has five NFL starts and some Cardinals beat writers believe he’ll lose work to Chris Johnson. Devonta Freeman has only been good in five of his 31 career games. Lamar Miller is changing teams and has never before exceeded 254 touches in a season.

Patrick Daugherty had Devonta Freeman 13. The composite rank was 9.

Devonta Freeman was one of 2015’s best stories. A left-for-dead backup after a disappointing rookie year, Freeman seized starting duties following a Week 2 injury to Tevin Coleman and never looked back. Not only did he lead the Falcons’ backfield, he led all backs in fantasy points. It was a stunning achievement for a player who was essentially free in drafts. It was also constructed in unrepeatable fashion. A whopping 123.5 of Freeman’s 247.9 fantasy points came across his first four starts. That’s 49.8 percent. The rest of the way, he averaged 11.9. That’s a decent number, but not first-round material. Freeman managed just 3.98 yards per attempt and 7.9 yards per catch. He was a compiler, but not efficient. All the while, Coleman operated as one of the league’s better change-of-pace backs. Freeman could still end up an RB1, but he will likely finish in the 10-12 range rather than last year’s lofty heights.

Raymond Summerlin had Frank Gore 14. The composite rank was 23.

It is still unclear why this ranking is considered controversial. Frank Gore finished as the RB12 last season, and that was with the offense in shambles most of the year. The argument could certainly be made that his per-game numbers were not special, but Gore’s efficiency should increase, and he should see more scoring opportunities with Andrew Luck back healthy and the offense poised for a rebound. Much has been made about Gore’s age (33), but he has not missed a game since 2010 and did not show any sign of decline when the offense was working last season. Much like Anquan Boldin over the last half-decade, Gore has the look of a player who will continue to post solid seasons while detractors sit idly by waiting for the wheels to fly off. They are unlikely to fly off this year, and even if they do, his price is easy to swallow.

Patrick Daugherty had Latavius Murray 30. The composite rank was 20.4

Latavius Murray was last year’s RB10, but he should have been so much more. Gifted the sort of three-down role that barely exists anymore, Murray averaged just 4.00 yards per carry, a number that slumped to 3.25 for games 9-16. Murray was even less efficient with his receptions, averaging 5.7 yards per grab, one of the worst marks in the league. He was benched multiple times. As such, it was hardly surprising when the Raiders spent the offseason talking up the need for competition at running back. They ended up adding only fifth-rounder DeAndre Washington but have called him a “complete back.” Murray will be the starter, but his injury history, last year’s struggles and his coaching staff’s words are all conspiring against him being a top-20 back.

Evan Silva had Giovani Bernard 39. The composite rank was 33.

Our baseline magazine rankings are constructed for non-PPR leagues, where Bernard carries little or no value. Bernard does not score touchdowns -- including playoffs, Gio has two TDs over his last 18 games -- and non-PPR leagues are inherently touchdown driven. Following the losses of Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones and with Tyler Eifert‘s offseason ankle surgery, the Bengals are more likely to increase power back/goal-line runner Jeremy Hill‘s role than Bernard’s. After writing this passage, I’m considering lowering Bernard’s ranking even further.

Nick Mensio had Terrell Watson 52. The composite rank was 78.

I wrote a bit about Watson in an offseason piece at Rotoworld back in May. The 2015 undrafted free agent out of small school Azusa Pacific is a mammoth running back at 6’1”/236 and has previously drawn some loose Jonathan Stewart and Steven Jackson comparisons. He spent all of last season on the Bengals’ practice squad learning then-Bengals OC Hue Jackson’s offense. Now, of course, Jackson is the head coach in Cleveland, and Watson was one of the first players he brought with him to the Browns. Directly ahead of Watson on the depth chart is Isaiah Crowell. Crowell is a former five-star recruit, but he went undrafted in 2014. In two seasons with Cleveland, Crowell hasn’t put much good tape out there. He doesn’t break tackles or run with much power and has a pedestrian 3.9 career YPC average on 333 carries. Watson already knows the offense like the back of his hand and averaged 5.2 YPC last preseason but was unable to crack a deep Bengals roster. The Browns are starting over, and Crowell wasn’t handpicked by this coaching staff.

Wide Receiver Rankings

Player	Raymond	Evan	Pat	Nick	Rich	Staff
Antonio Brown	1	1	1	1	1	1
Odell Beckham	4	2	2	2	2	2
Julio Jones	2	3	3	3	3	3
A.J. Green	3	4	5	7	4	5
DeAndre Hopkins	7	7	4	4	6	6
Dez Bryant	5	5	9	6	5	6
Allen Robinson	10	6	8	5	9	8
Alshon Jeffery	8	9	6	10	7	8
Jordy Nelson	6	10	12	9	8	9
Mike Evans	13	12	7	12	11	11
Brandon Marshall	11	11	10	14	10	11
Keenan Allen	14	8	15	8	12	11
T.Y. Hilton	9	14	11	10	13	11
Demaryius Thomas	12	15	13	11	16	13
Brandin Cooks	17	13	14	13	15	14
Sammy Watkins	15	18	17	20	14	17
Amari Cooper	20	16	16	17	20	18
Randall Cobb	21	17	23	15	19	19
Jeremy Maclin	16	22	19	28	17	20
Julian Edelman	23	21	25	16	23	22
Jarvis Landry	27	19	21	23	25	23
Michael Floyd	18	28	22	26	24	24
Kelvin Benjamin	19	26	29	18	26	24
Eric Decker	26	25	26	24	18	24
Doug Baldwin	29	27	20	22	21	24
Golden Tate	28	20	24	27	22	24
John Brown	22	29	18	32	28	26
Donte Moncrief	25	23	28	30	27	27
DeVante Parker	32	35	32	21	30	30
Emmanuel Sanders	30	31	27	29	33	30
Jordan Matthews	24	30	33	40	29	31
Larry Fitzgerald	38	24	39	25	31	31
Corey Coleman	34	36	30	34	34	34
Allen Hurns	36	33	31	31	38	34
Marvin Jones	31	39	38	36	35	36
DeSean Jackson	33	37	41	39	32	36
Torrey Smith	35	43	37	38	36	38
Dorial Green-Beckham	41	40	35	37	40	39
Michael Crabtree	37	34	51	35	39	39
Kevin White	39	32	47	44	42	41
Tyler Lockett	40	38	40	47	41	41
Willie Snead	44	42	42	46	37	42
Markus Wheaton	43	46	43	49	46	45
Tavon Austin	47	41	34	45	61	46
Vincent Jackson	51	52	44	41	44	46
Sterling Shepard	45	47	45	42	55	47
Travis Benjamin	46	56	36	48	49	47
Steve Smith	42	54	60	33	47	47
Stefon Diggs	53	50	48	43	45	48
Josh Doctson	50	49	46	58	52	51
Mohamed Sanu	48	45	50	59	53	51
Michael Thomas	49	48	49	50	59	51

Wide Receiver Outliers

Rich Hribar had Eric Decker 18. The composite rank was 23.8.

Decker is definitely a candidate to score fewer touchdowns in 2016 as he had a career-high 17 targets inside the 10-yard line, but the drop may not be too far as he has also proven himself to be one of the most consistent touchdown producers, scoring on 12 percent or more of his receptions in four of his past five NFL seasons. That’s significant because his overall volume isn’t going to be compromised as the Jets still project to have one of the shallowest ball distributions on offense in the league again while remaining a pass-first team under Chan Gailey. In fact, they should throw more this season as I find it doubtful they win another 10 games in 2016, meaning it’s likely that Decker sees 140-plus targets on the season. Decker had one of the best floors in the NFL last season (his lowest weekly finish on the season was WR30) and has room for his weekly ceiling to increase in terms of yardage.

Geno Smith potentially starting isn’t a scare for me as I believe he can be a proxy of what Fitzpatrick was for fantasy purposes. But the rub if Smith does start will be whether he can hold the gig if the Jets are losing games, as a move to Christian Hackenberg or Bryce Petty could potentially stall any production.

Raymond Summerlin had Michael Floyd 18. The composite rank was 22.

Projecting Michael Floyd as a lower-end WR2 is only projecting him to be what he was down the stretch last year. Despite missing one game and being limited to decoy duties in another, Floyd posted the 17th-highest score among fantasy wide receivers from Week 6-on last season. He scored six touchdowns over that span and posted 100 yards receiving in 5-of-9 healthy games. His upside is limited somewhat by the presence of Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown, but the offense is poised for another great season after bringing back literally every playmaker from a team that finished second in the league in scoring. The “No. 1” receiver in Arizona is going to put up big numbers, and there is a good chance that player is Floyd.

Nick Mensio had Steve Smith Sr. 33. The composite rank was 47.2

I’m not one to bet against 89. Bottom Line. Even at 37-years-old and coming off a torn Achilles’ tendon, Smith Sr. remains the Ravens’ No. 1 receiver. Smith was on pace for 105 catches for 1,531 yards and six touchdowns before tearing his Achilles after seven games last season. I realize he’s fallen off over the second halves of recent seasons, but nobody works or competes harder than this guy. Coming back for one more run at a title, Senior will do everything in his power to make it happen. Breshad Perriman (knee) will again miss a large portion of training camp and the preseason for a second straight year, leaving Smith and Kamar Aiken to pick up the pieces at receiver. I’d be more than happy to have Smith as my WR3 heading into the season.

Patrick Daugherty had Larry Fitzgerald 39. The composite rank was 31.4

Larry Fitzgerald’s 109 catches and 1,215 yards were both four-year highs last season, but they came with a career-low 11.1 yards per catch. With Michael Floyd finally emerging as a force, Fitz completely disappeared down the stretch, averaging 9.4 yards per catch over his final eight games and snagging just 18 total passes in Weeks 14-17. When both Floyd and John Brown were healthy, the Cardinals used Fitz to block and clear space over the middle more than catch passes. Now headed into what could be his final season, Fitz’s “dirty work” duties should only expand. Fitz is a future Hall-of-Famer who could still do anything the Cardinals need him to, but they need him to do things that sap fantasy value. Fitz will struggle for WR3 value.

Rich Hribar had Tavon Austin 61. The composite rank was 45.6.

I have no doubt that Austin will outscore my ranking of him, but I don’t rank by projected points. I rank by weekly capability and team construction. Austin just doesn’t fit into the way I build teams because he is a player whose season totals mask what he truly brings to the table each week, and his production is built on things that aren’t overly reliable week in and week out. Austin was the standard scoring WR24 in 2015 for the season, but he had eight weeks at WR42 or lower, putting you at the mercy of wishful thinking each week you set him in your lineup. This is because as a receiver he had more than seven targets in a game just once, more than four receptions just four times (with no games with more than six) and had more than 40 receiving yards just twice. You’re strictly counting on rushing usage and effectiveness and touchdown production to buoy his viability, something that requires too much guesswork in year-to-year (and week-to-week in-season) output and will leave you with a hole in your lineup for the bulk of the season in such a low-volume offense. Austin’s point total will say he was a weekly starter for the season, but he’s a player I completely want my opponent to have in his weekly lineup rather than my own.

Nick Mensio had Brandon LaFell 87. The composite rank was 64.2.

LaFell is theoretically landing in a great spot with the Bengals after they lost both Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu to free agency. But LaFell had one outlier season in 2014, catching nine touchdowns and going for 1,072 yards for the Super Bowl champion Patriots. Before that, the Panthers gave up on LaFell because he couldn’t catch a cold with his stone hands. In 2015, LaFell missed the first six weeks of the season following foot surgery and reverted back to his drop-prone ways when he returned to the lineup. Practice reports out of Bengals OTAs had LaFell still struggling to catch the ball. Even if he wins the No. 2 job in Cincinnati, LaFell might be a distant third or fourth pass-game option behind target hog A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert and Giovani Bernard. If Eifert misses the early part of the season, look for the Bengals to lean more on Jeremy Hill and the run game. They could try to play ball-control offense and win with their defense. LaFell has caught fewer than 65 percent of his targets each of his six seasons. Last year, 46 receivers bested 65 percent.

Tight End Rankings

Player	Raymond	Evan	Pat	Nick	Rich	Staff
Rob Gronkowski	1	1	1	1	1	1
Jordan Reed	2	2	3	2	2	2
Greg Olsen	3	3	2	3	3	3
Travis Kelce	6	5	4	5	4	5
Coby Fleener	4	4	6	10	5	6
Gary Barnidge	7	9	5	6	11	8
Tyler Eifert	11	6	10	8	6	8
Ladarius Green	5	8	9	12	7	8
Delanie Walker	10	11	8	4	8	8
Zach Ertz	8	12	7	9	10	9
Antonio Gates	9	7	12	11	9	10
Julius Thomas	13	10	16	7	16	12
Eric Ebron	14	13	11	20	12	14
Dwayne Allen	12	18	13	17	13	15
Martellus Bennett	22	14	14	15	15	16
Austin Seferian-Jenkins	18	15	19	14	19	17
Zach Miller	17	17	23	13	20	18
Jimmy Graham	20	24	17	16	14	18
Jason Witten	15	16	22	21	17	18
Clive Walford	16	23	15	23	18	19
Charles Clay	21	20	20	22	21	21
Jordan Cameron	23	19	18	18	28	21
Kyle Rudolph	19	21	21	26	23	22
Will Tye	25	22	24	25	22	24
Jared Cook	24	25	25	24	29	25
Ben Watson	28	26	28	19	27	26
Vance McDonald	26	31	41	32	24	31
Jacob Tamme	34	27	32	29	34	31
Austin Hooper	30	32	31	34	31	32
Jace Amaro	29	33	27	41	30	32
Maxx Williams	31	30	38	33	32	33
Jeff Heuerman	27	34	41	28	35	33
Lance Kendricks	33	28	41	41	25	34

Tight End Outliers

Raymond Summerlin had Martellus Bennett 22. The composite rank was 15.

The search for Aaron Hernandez’s on-field successor has gone through many names which have all invariably disappointed despite significant hype. The next in this long line is Martellus Bennett, who was acquired via trade from the Bears this offseason. While Bennett is more talented than the names which have come before, the issue remains the same -- where will the targets come from? With the Patriots’ pace slowing over the last four years and Jimmy Garoppolo set to start the first month, Bennett would be lucky to see 80 targets if Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman are healthy. That volume would put Bennett in the low teens among tight ends, and the targets he does see are likely to be game-plan specific and difficult to predict. Drafting Bennett in a standard format is a bet on an injury to Gronk, and even if that bet pays off, he will likely be on the wire by the time it happens.

Evan Silva had Jimmy Graham 24. The composite rank was 18.2.

NFL players who’ve suffered ruptured patellar tendons in recent years: Giants WR Victor Cruz, Bucs RB Cadillac Williams, Eagles FS Nate Allen, Colts WR Austin Collie, Eagles RB Correll Buckhalter, Falcons OT Sam Baker, Vikings WR Greg Childs, Lions DE Jason Jones, Cowboys RB Ryan Williams, Cowboys CB Morris Claiborne, Browns CB Gary Baxter, Titans LB Gerald McRath, Bucs OG Davin Joseph. Anything the Seahawks get from Graham should be considered a bonus.

Rich Hribar had Gary Barnidge 11. The composite rank was 7.

I don’t even mind the fact that Barnidge out-produced his entire NFL career in one season at the age of 30, but I do mind how it occurred. Barnidge ran 591 routes last season, the most of any tight end in the league. That mark was 72 more than the next-highest player, and in context, it was 203 more snaps in route than Jordan Reed, a player that still outscored Barnidge on the season. It’s highly unlikely the Cleveland offense sees that type of passing volume roll over under Hue Jackson. Cleveland ran 664 passing plays with 606 attempts while the highs for a Jackson-led offense have been 602 pass plays with a high of 555 attempts coming in 2007 while he was in Atlanta. With Barnidge’s volume expected to take a step back, the question of who will be throwing him the ball is also in play. With Josh McCown under center, Barnidge was on a 98/1430/14 pace over 16 games compared to a 64/741/5 pace from Johnny Manziel and Austin Davis. Even though Robert Griffin III almost has to be better than the latter pair of quarterbacks, if McCown isn’t under center, I’m not feeling good about Barnidge being able to avoid reverting back into the fantasy option he was up until last season and would rather keep waiting on the position at that stage.