Sleepers
1. Jerick McKinnon, RB, San Francisco 49ers
From Terrell Davis to Clinton Portis, Arian Foster and Alfred Morris, Mike and Kyle Shanahan’s running games have been consistent hotbeds for fantasy production. Kyle’s 49ers made Jerick McKinnon the NFL’s fifth-highest-paid running back in March and plan to use him in the “Devonta Freeman role.” The Niners poured resources into their offensive line in free agency and the draft, signing ex-Giants C Weston Richburg and using the No. 9 pick on Notre Dame RT Mike McGlinchey. With Jimmy Garoppolo under center, the 49ers have a chance to field a high-powered 2018 offense. Another sleeper in this backfield is second-year RB Matt Breida, who is the early favorite for the “Tevin Coleman role.”
2. Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks
After losing Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson, the Seahawks are missing the NFL’s sixth-most targets (217) from last year’s team. Seattle’s defense was hit even harder, losing DE Cliff Avril, CB Richard Sherman, DT Sheldon Richardson, DE http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/1157/Michael-Bennetthttp://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/11192/Michael-Bennetthttp://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/10555/Michael-BennettMichael Bennett and potentially SS Kam Chancellor (neck). Russell Wilson’s pass attempts have risen each year he’s been in the league and project to rise again as the roster around him declines, creating more in-game deficits. Now Seattle’s projected No. 2 wideout, Tyler Lockett is a late-round breakout candidate with an abundance of opportunity behind Doug Baldwin.
3. Pat Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
Last year’s No. 10 pick in the draft, Pat Mahomes takes over for http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/3147/Alex-SmithAlex Smith after spending all but Week 17 toting the clipboard for a Chiefs offense that finished No. 6 in points per game (25.9). A dynamic dual-threat quarterback with video-game talent, Mahomes scored 22 rushing TDs and threw 77 more over his final two seasons at Texas Tech and then displayed his cannon arm and rushing upside against the Broncos’ starting defense in last year’s regular season finale. Surrounded by Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt and Sammy Watkins, Mahomes is set up for success under quarterback whisperer Andy Reid.
4. Royce Freeman, RB, Denver Broncos
After drafting him at No. 71 overall, GM John Elway all but named Royce Freeman the Broncos’ new bellcow back in front of Devontae Booker and De’Angelo Henderson. Freeman is built like old Rams RB http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/4428/Steven-JacksonSteven Jackson at 6-foot, 229 pounds and was a four-year workhorse at Oregon, where Freeman set school records for rushing yards (5,621) and touchdowns (64). Mercifully moving past the Trevor Siemian-Paxton Lynch era, the Broncos’ offense should be more competent with Case Keenum at the controls. Further, the defense is talented enough to keep Denver in positive game scripts to lean on its rushing attack.
5. Michael Gallup, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Jason Witten retired. Dez Bryant was cut. Terrance Williams is recovering from a broken foot and was arrested in May. All told, the Cowboys are missing the NFL’s third-most targets (272) from last year’s team. Enter third-round rookie Michael Gallup, whom owner Jerry Jones all but named a Week 1 starter after the draft, and whose in-house target competition consists of in-limbo Williams, ex-Jaguar Allen Hurns and hamstring-hobbled Cole Beasley. Gallup is a prime candidate to be this year’s Cooper Kupp.
6. Mitchell Trubisky, QB, Chicago Bears
The Bears blueprinted their 2018 offseason in the 2017 Rams’ likeness, ridding themselves of stone-age head coach John Fox and hiring spread-game advocates Matt Nagy (Chiefs) and Mark Helfrich (Oregon) to bring their offense into modern times. Mitchell Trubisky’s pass-catcher corps was overhauled with new No. 1 WR Allen Robinson, versatile catch-first TE Trey Burton, deep threat Taylor Gabriel and exciting rookie slot man http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/7719/Anthony-MillerAnthony Miller. Rotoworld’s strength-of-schedule metrics show that Chicago has this year’s fifth-softest pass-defense slate. A running threat as well, Trubisky is set up for a sophomore leap.
Busts
1. LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills
Now 30 years old and coming off a career-worst 3.97 yards-per-carry average, LeSean McCoy has fantasy bust written all over him on a Bills team that will be quarterbacked by career backup A.J. McCarron and/or raw rookie http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/13045/Josh-AllenJosh Allen after losing LT Cordy Glenn, LG Richie Incognito and C Eric Wood from its once-vaunted offensive line. Tyrod Taylor’s trade to Cleveland is also bad news for McCoy, removing Taylor’s dual-threat presence that benefited the run game. Looking at the Bills’ roster on paper, McCoy is a misfit as an aging running back on a going-nowhere team. McCoy will struggle to sniff the end zone this year.
2. Jarvis Landry, WR, Cleveland Browns
Acquiring Jarvis Landry made real-football sense for the Browns, but Landry’s fantasy stock took a big hit. Landry has never faced target competition as stiff as Josh Gordon, David Njoku, Duke Johnson and Corey Coleman/Antonio Callaway, while projected Week 1 starter Tyrod Taylor has never quarterbacked an offense that finished above 31st in pass attempts. No pass catcher to play with Tyrod has ever eclipsed 60 receptions in a season. Landry made his living in Miami as a volume monster, averaging just 10.1 yards per catch and topping five TDs once. Volume will be much tougher to come by in Cleveland.
3. Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
One of fantasy’s most consistent producers his first year and a half in the league, Dak Prescott’s 2017 second-half fade was cause for alarm in a declining Cowboys offense. Prescott managed an 8:9 TD-to-INT ratio over Dallas’ final 10 games, finishing below 200 passing yards seven times. Now missing Dez Bryant (cut) and Jason Witten (retired), Prescott will be forced to make do with an ugly supporting cast made up of Terrance Williams, Allen Hurns, Cole Beasley and Michael Gallup. Additionally, Rotoworld’s strength-of-schedule metrics reveal Dallas will face one of this year’s toughest pass-defense slates.
4. Devin Funchess, WR, Carolina Panthers
Devin Funchess enjoyed a third-year mini-breakout that was buoyed by Kelvin Benjamin’s in-season trade and Greg Olsen’s foot fracture, which cost the TE nine games. In five games sans Benjamin and Olsen, Funchess averaged 7.8 targets for 81.0 yards with four TDs. In four games after Olsen returned, Funchess slipped to 5.5 targets for 39.3 yards with two scores. Olsen is back to full health after signing a two-year extension, and http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/5117/D.J.-MooreD.J. Moore’s first-round selection further threatens Funchess’ opportunity.
5. Marlon Mack, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Marlon Mack entered the league as a boom-bust runner out of USF and showed the exact same skill set as a rookie, breaking the NFL’s 11th-most 20-plus-yard runs (6) but averaging just 3.85 yards per carry. Late in the season, Mack lost playing time due to pass-protection mistakes and costly fumbles. He had shoulder surgery relatively late in the offseason, costing Mack all of OTAs. Meanwhile, the Colts drafted Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines for what is expected to be a three- or even four-man running back committee under new head coach Frank Reich, who also employed a deep backfield rotation in Philadelphia.
6. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Buffalo Bills
Kelvin Benjamin has a history of scoring touchdowns – by far the biggest difference makers in fantasy box scores – but his outlook is bleak on a Buffalo team quarterbacked by A.J. McCarron and eventually http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/13045/Josh-AllenJosh Allen. Just as worrisome are Benjamin’s mounting knee troubles. He missed all of 2015 with a torn ACL, then experienced further knee problems last season in Carolina. After his October trade to the Bills, Benjamin tore his meniscus and underwent postseason surgery. There just isn’t much to like here.
