Undervalued
1. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Fitzgerald has topped 100 catches and 1,000 yards in back-to-back seasons, and he has missed just two games over the past nine years. Michael Floyd is long gone, while No. 2 receiver John Brown’s health can’t be taken for granted after pulling a hamstring at OTAs. Locked in as Arizona’s passing-game focal point and coming off consecutive top-10 finishes in both targets (7th, 10th) and PPR points (WR7, WR10), Fitzgerald offers immense value at his current WR26-WR28 Average Draft Positions.
2. Jamison Crowder, WR, Washington Redskins
A top-30 fantasy receiver in 2016, Crowder has sizable growth potential on a Redskins team missing 224 targets from last year. Whereas Terrelle Pryor is new to D.C. and Josh Doctson hardly played as a rookie, Crowder’s on-field rapport with Kirk Cousins is well established. The only two Redskins who out-targeted Crowder last season (Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson) left for big money, and even with Garcon and Jackson in the fold, Crowder paced the Skins in both red-zone targets (16) and red-zone catches (9). With two of the surest hands in football and a special knack for creating separation in the slot, Crowder is a sneaky candidate for 100 catches.
3. Willie Snead, WR, New Orleans Saints
Snead has established himself as a reliable 100-plus target receiver in Drew Brees’ offense with seasonal PPR finishes of WR32 (2015) and WR30 (2016). After trading away Brandin Cooks, the Saints are missing 143 targets from last year. Given a reasonable assumption of health, Snead’s floor should be WR32. And his ceiling is much higher. Let’s lock in Michael Thomas as the Saints’ 2017 target leader. Last year’s second-leading New Orleans receiver (Cooks) finished as the PPR WR7. Set for restricted free agency in 2018, Snead won’t lack “motivation” with a contract extension on the line.
4. Mike Gillislee, RB, New England Patriots
Last year’s league leader in yards per carry at 5.7 -- after he averaged exactly 5.7 the year before, too – Gillislee landed in a great-looking spot for fantasy value as the presumptive early-down and clock-killing runner in the AFC’s premier offense. In Buffalo, Gillislee was potent enough in goal-line situations that the Bills would sometimes insert him there over LeSean McCoy. Not only did LeGarrette Blount lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns (18) in a similar role last season, but the Patriots as a team have scored the league’s most rushing TDs over the past six years, averaging 18.0 annually during that span. Especially in touchdown-heavy leagues, Gillislee is a high-upside middle-round investment.
5. Eric Ebron, TE, Detroit Lions
Although widely seen as a disappointment, Ebron has delivered improving counting and rate stats in each of his first three NFL seasons. As a 2016 third-year pro, Ebron registered career bests in catch rate (71.8%), yards per reception (11.7) and yards per target (8.4). You would have no idea from the way he is perceived that Ebron has posted consecutive top-15 results in fantasy points and finished top-10 at the position in both catches (61) and yards (711) last season despite missing three games. With Anquan Boldin’s team-high 22 red-zone targets gone from Detroit, Ebron is a candidate for a touchdown leap.
6. Cameron Meredith, WR, Chicago Bears
Despite not becoming a full-time player until last October, Meredith led the 2016 Bears in targets (97), catches (66), receiving yards (888), red-zone targets (12) and red-zone catches (6), finishing as the PPR WR17 from Week 5 on. The Bears are missing the NFL’s ninth-most targets (166) from last year’s roster with unsettled pass-catcher roles beyond Meredith, a 6-foot-3, 207-pound one-time college quarterback who went undrafted out of Illinois State in 2015 despite superior pre-draft athleticism results compared with all but six receivers selected that year. Currently being drafted in the 40s among fantasy wideouts, Meredith is the favorite for No. 1 receiver duties on a Bears team that will likely spend 2017 playing from behind.
7. Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Dalton’s 2017 weaponry has a chance to be the best of his career with A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert back after combining to miss 14 games and dynamic pass-catching threats John Ross and Joe Mixon added in the draft. Most importantly, Dalton is a prime positive-regression candidate after posting a career-low 3.2% touchdown rate in 2016, nearly two full percentage points lower than Dalton’s previous career rate. A top-seven fantasy passer in per-game scoring in two of the last four years and a top-12 finisher in three of the last five, Dalton is a great late-round quarterback target at his ADPs of QB16-QB17.
8. Carson Palmer, QB, Arizona Cardinals
Carson Palmer’s 2016 is remembered as a disappointment, but it didn’t end that way. Palmer earned Pro Football Focus’ No. 4 overall passing grade from Weeks 8-17, posting a 19:9 TD-to-INT ratio and top-12 fantasy quarterback stats during that stretch. Arizona has one of the NFL’s most favorable pass-defense schedules in the first half of the year. Palmer should be on the radar of late-round QB drafters.
Overvalued
1. Jordan Howard, RB, Chicago Bears
Howard’s passing-game usage will likely take a hit after he led all running backs in drops (8) as a rookie, and the Bears signed ex-Rams passing-down specialist Benny Cunningham, then drafted scatback Tarik Cohen in the fourth round. Howard caught only 24 passes in his three-year college career and never projected as much of a receiving threat to begin with. Howard’s yards-per-carry average dipped all the way from 5.19 to 3.36 against eight-man boxes, which he’ll see far more often this season in a slow-paced, low-scoring offense. It is surprising early drafters are selecting Howard as the RB7 ahead of higher-ceiling picks DeMarco Murray and Jay Ajayi.
2. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers
As dual-threat quarterbacks tend to scramble rather than check down when their primary reads are covered, no running back to play with Cam Newton has reached 30 receptions in a half decade. Newton remains a goal-line threat, while it’s conceivable the Panthers will favor 235-pound Jonathan Stewart over McCaffrey (5’11”/202) in short-yardage situations. Will McCaffrey catch many passes, and will he score touchdowns? At aggressive RB13-RB15 ADPs, he is one of this year’s riskiest fantasy picks.
3. Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
Although we are huge fans of Henry’s god-given talent, his sixth-round ADP is egregious for a player who won’t come anywhere near his ceiling barring a severe injury to DeMarco Murray. While Henry’s involvement did increase down the stretch last season, the Titans have been adamant Murray remains their uncontested feature back. The distinction is deserved after Murray registered the second-highest rushing yardage (1,287) and yards from scrimmage (1,664) totals of his career. Murray was tagged with an “injury-prone” label early in his career, but he has appeared in 47-of-48 games over the past three years.
4. Tyler Eifert, TE, Cincinnati Bengals
Being drafted ahead of Jimmy Graham, Kyle Rudolph, Delanie Walker and Martellus Bennett as we went to print, Eifert is overvalued based on his injury history and the lack of available targets in Cincinnati’s pass-catcher corps, which gets A.J. Green back healthy and added John Ross in the draft. Eifert has missed 26-of-48 games over the past three seasons with back, shoulder and ankle surgeries, in addition to a concussion. He is presently recovering from back surgery and is uncertain to be ready for training camp. Eifert is a natural-born touchdown scorer with ample upside, but fantasy owners aren’t taking his risk seriously enough, and his receptions and yardage volume will disappoint barring an injury to Green.
5. Ameer Abdullah, RB, Detroit Lions
Abdullah is healthy after last year’s Lisfranc fracture, but he finds himself in the same predicament as before. Theo Riddick will continue to dominate passing-down work, while Zach Zenner, Matt Asiata and Dwayne Washington are all bigger and likelier to get goal-line usage. Abdullah can be an asset to the Lions, but he’s unlikely to be a consistent asset in fantasy leagues with low reception and TD ceilings.
6. Josh Doctson, WR, Washington Redskins
Doctson was a great prospect coming out of TCU in 2016, but he barely got on the field as a rookie due to injuries to both Achilles’ tendons. He now finds himself fourth on the target totem pole in Washington behind Jamison Crowder, Jordan Reed and Terrelle Pryor. At OTAs and minicamp, Doctson hadn’t even passed Ryan Grant on the depth chart. Doctson is a late-round dart and nothing more.
7. John Ross, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
While Ross’ Combine record-breaking 4.22 speed is enticing, it is difficult to envision him carving out reliable re-draft value in a Bengals offense missing the NFL’s fifth-fewest targets (39) from 2016 and getting back several injured pass catchers. A 90% perimeter receiver who rarely manned the slot at the University of Washington, Ross’ initial role should involve lid-lifting and demanding coverage just as much, if not more than catching Andy Dalton’s passes. As Ross is questionable for the start of training camp following shoulder surgery and missed all of OTAs/minicamp due to Washington’s late graduation, it’s not crazy to think he could open the season behind Brandon LaFell.
8. Breshad Perriman, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Perriman missed his rookie year with repeated PCL setbacks and struggled as a sophomore. A player who looked like he was re-learning how to play, Perriman left troubling sums of yards on the field due to sloppy errors. He managed Pro Football Focus’ No. 90 receiving grade among 119 wideouts, finishing 107th in catch rate (51.6%) and 85th among 96 qualifiers in WR Rating (67.1). Joe Flacco posted a far-superior 96.8 rating when targeting Mike Wallace and a 91.9 rating to Steve Smith Sr. With Wallace back and Jeremy Maclin replacing Smith, Perriman should remain a low-volume rotational receiver in 2017.
