Week 5 Best Bets

Rich Hribar and Raymond Summerlin bring you their best bets every Friday of the NFL season as well as a preview of Sunday Night Football. The preview is free, but the bets can only be found in the Rotoworld Season Pass. Don’t miss out on the action.

Rich: 11-8-1 season record (last week: 4-2-1)
Raymond: 14-6 season record (last week: 4-1)

All lines taken from the

VI Consensus at VegasInsider.com Friday morning.

Sunday Night Football – Cowboys @ Texans (-3) – 45.5-point total
Rich: Sunday features the battle of Texas football in the NFL. The Cowboys come pretty close to ruining football for everyone involved as last week was the first time that a Cowboys game has had more than 40 combined points scored in it since Week 13 of last season. Normally, I would be willing to go right back to the well on Dallas’ unexciting brank of football nuking the opponent into the under again, but Houston is coming off a short road win, and their defense is atrocious, allowing season-high points scored to both the vaunted Giants and Colts offenses over the past weeks. Dallas should push their implied team total here as Houston has allowed 27 or more points in three of their first four games.

Both of these teams have been brutal bets this season. Each is 1-3 against the spread and Houston just covered a week ago for the first time since Week 12 of last season. This game is largely hands off for me, but if I was forced to put action on the game, I would take the points with Dallas because last week was the first time that Houston has even played offense with a lead this season, the Texans are coming off a tough division win on the road in overtime, and we know Dallas is unlikely to beat themselves while mucking up the game with their #brand of football.

Ray:

While I am almost exclusively a situational bettor, it is nice when a positive situation puts me on the same side as my subjective analysis, and that is the case in this game. To start with, I continue to believe the Cowboys are an underrated team – shocking given their history of being a public favorite – which has a good defense and especially a good pass rush. That last part could prove pivotal in a game against the worst offensive line in the league.

The Cowboys are also the play situationally. The Texans are coming off a long overtime game against the Colts last week. It is always profitable to fade teams coming off an overtime game, and that is especially true for home favorites, which are 35-52-3 ATS (40.2 percent) since 2008.
Pick: Cowboys +3

Titans @ Bills (+5.5) – 39.5-point total
Rich: We’re going back to the well on a trend which we bet in Week 3 with Washington covering versus Green Bay and chasing home teams facing opponents that have come off of long overtime games. Overall over the past five seasons, road teams coming off of an overtime game are just 37-55-2 against the spread. Since the overtime rules changed to begin the 2016 season, they are 13-21 against the spread. The key here beyond those totals is we’re also looking for teams that nearly max out the extra period like Tennessee and Oakland did a week ago.

I don’t want to bet on the Bills, and I know you don’t, either. But the Titans are coming off huge wins against the defending Super Bowl Champs and the Jaguars, so the public is going to be hammering them in what will appear to be an egregious line given the perception of the Bills. That very well may be the case, but I am going to hold my nose and take the Bills and the points in what may be more of a slugfest like Tennessee’s two games prior to last week.

Pick: Bills +5.5

Ray: As Rich said, this is the kind of plug-your-nose game you simply have to bet when committed to playing situations. It is not pretty, and it probably makes sense to not watch the game, but the numbers say it is the right call. It is worth noting this line has done nothing but climb since it opened at three, so the best line probably will not come until Sunday morning. Wait it out if possible.

Pick: Bills +5.5

Raiders @ Chargers (-5) – 52.5-point total
Rich: As mentioned, the same applies to Oakland, who is receiving a ton of action on their side early on as that game once opened at a full -7 points in favor of the Chargers. On top of having the road game after overtime factor in play, the Raiders are also traveling to London in Week 6. Against the spread, teams putting things in a row in preparation to make a trip over the pond are 17-24-1 all-time. Tack on that the Raiders have covered in just one of their past five games versus the Chargers, and we’re putting a bow on things.

Pick: Chargers -5

Ray: As Rich notes, this is a double whammy spot. Oakland is both coming off a long overtime game, a situation which will be a theme this week, and are heading to London to play the Seahawks next week. They are also simply a much worse team than the Chargers. The line moving sharply to the Raiders has me a little worried, but I will trust the numbers and lay the points. Like with Buffalo, this line has only moved one way, so waiting until Sunday morning to see where it settles makes sense.
Pick: Chargers -5

Rams @ Seahawks (+7) – 50-point total
Rich: The same scenario is also going to play out for Oakland’s Week 6 opponent, the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle has yet to score more than 24 points in a game this season while the Rams have yet to score fewer than 33 points. Seattle has also had the favor of starting off the season on the defensive side of the ball by facing teams led by Case Keenum,

Mitchell Trubisky, Dak Prescott, and Josh Rosen. They have covered just once in those games. The last time these two teams met in Seattle, the Seahawks were fighting for their playoff lives and got run out of their building 42-7. I know some have this one penciled in as a trap game for the Rams but coming off long rest and facing a defense that just lost Earl Thomas for the season, I don’t see how the Seahawks slow down this runaway train that is the Rams offense.
Pick: Rams -7

Giants @ Panthers (-6) – 43.5-point total
Rich:

Making it three favorites in a row, Carolina is coming out of a bye at home to face a Giants team which is-1-3 against the spread this season, already losing games by 5, 7, and 15 points to begin the year. To make matters worse, the Giants have scored 18 or fewer points in three of their four games and have trailed for 71.4 percent of their offensive snaps, the highest rate in the league (league average outside of them is 47.1 percent). Also, the Giants have allowed the most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks in the NFL, allowing 28 or more rushing yards to a quarterback in all four games this season. Good news for the strongest rushing quarterback in the league in http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/3511/Cam-NewtonCam Newton. Carolina has also covered in each of the past three seasons coming out of their bye.

Pick: Panthers -6

Vikings @ Eagles (-3) – 46.5-point total
Ray:

The long overtime theme continues, and like the Texans, the Eagles are home favorites. The Vikings are also a short-road underdog coming off a road loss, a situation which 44-22-3 ATS (66.7%) over the last 10 years, and are probably valued as lowly by the betting public as they will be at any point the rest of the season.
Pick: Vikings +3

Cardinals @ 49ers (-4) – 40-point total
Rich: I need to mix in one more underdog to cleanse my palate. San Francisco is coming off of back-to-back road games, something that has been a slight edge to bet against. Over the past 10 seasons, teams coming off consecutive road games have covered just 45.2 percent of the time. Arizona has played two tightly contested games over the past two weeks, losing by just two and three points. In Josh Rosen’s first career start, they managed season-highs in points, plays run and offensive yards despite all of those totals being lower than what you’d desire offensively. The 49ers rank 22nd in DVOA through four weeks while the Cardinals rank 11th, so I believe they’ll keep this one tight once again and getting more than a field goal here is a solid place to start.

Pick: Cardinals +4

Ravens @ Browns (+3) – 45.5-point total
Ray:

The Browns finish off the overtime-heavy plays this week, but this is another game in which the situation and the subjective match up. As we saw last week, the Ravens are a very good team which is almost certainly being undervalued as just three-point favorites, and while the Browns are talented, their coaching staff seems unable to win even the games they are supposed to. This is not one of those games, and it would not be surprising if the Ravens won going away. Playing a short-road favorite is far from my style, but this line is too valuable to pass.

Pick: Ravens -3

Washington @ Saints (-6.5) – 53-point total
Rich:

Washington is also coming out their bye to play the Saints on Monday Night. New Orleans has hardly impressed outside of rag-dolling a hapless Giants team but is giving away almost a full touchdown here. Washington’s defense has been very strong to start. Opponents have scored on just 22.6 percent (7-of-31) of their drives versus Washington, the lowest rate in the league while they are allowing just 5.1 yards per pass attempt, which ranks second in the league. I don’t fully expect them to slow the Saints down at home by any means, but the Saints have been playing close games, trailing in the 4th quarter in every game outside of last week against the Giants. A battered Washington team came into New Orleans and lost by three points in overtime a year ago, something they are capable of doing again with a healthy roster this week.
Pick: Washington +6.5