Week 6 Best Bets

Rich Hribar and Raymond Summerlin bring you their best bets every Friday of the NFL season as well as a preview of Sunday Night Football. The preview is free, but the bets can only be found in the Rotoworld Season Pass. Don’t miss out on the action.

Rich: 14-11-1 season record (last week: 3-3)
Raymond: 17-7-1 season record (last week: 3-1-1)

All lines taken from the

VI Consensus at VegasInsider.com Friday morning.

Sunday Night Football – Chiefs @ Patriots (-3.5) – 59.5-point total
Rich: The Chiefs are the lone remaining undefeated team in the AFC and have already run through wins against the Steelers and Jaguars to start the season, two teams many project to still contend for winning the conference. This week, they get another major test in-conference as they head to Foxboro, where the AFC has gone through for the past 18 seasons.

Is this game a changing of the guard in the AFC or another spot where the Patriots remind us the conference is still theirs? Andy Reid hasn’t found a lot of success against Bill Belichick for his career, with his teams posting a 2-5 record, but he has won two of the three meetings with the Patriots while with the Chiefs including a 47-27 win in Foxboro in Week 1 to kick off last season. One thing to note in those meetings is that the over has hit in five consecutive games, which leads us into this gargantuan total this weekend.

This is a matchup featuring two high-octane offenses, and Vegas has accounted for that by setting the game total at a massive 59.5 points. To put that into context, this is the highest game total since Week 15 of the 2004 season when the Chiefs hosted the Raiders. That game had a 60-point total which even hit as the Chiefs won 31-30.

Since the Chiefs have been so good out of the gates, we’re getting the Patriots in a spot we really haven’t had the luxury of getting them for betting purposes, which is a relatively short home favorite. Since Tom Brady and Belichick began making Super Bowl music together in 2001, the Patriots have been a home favorite of -3.5 points or fewer just 25 times. In those games, they are 16-7-2 versus the spread. Over the past decade, that record is 7-3-1 with all three of the failed covers coming in games that weren’t started by Brady (two with Matt Cassel in 2008 and one by Jacoby Brissett in 2016). To find a game in which a Brady-led Patriots team failed to cover a spread this low as a home favorite, you have to go all the way back to Week 9 of the 2006 season.

In the end, the game total is far too high for me to bet, but it’s hard to ignore getting the Patriots at a number we don’t often get them at for wagering. The Chiefs have really relied on blowing teams up early in games, outscoring opponents 59-9 in the first quarter this season. I don’t believe they run away from the Patriots here and that New England not only gives the Chiefs their first loss but also hits the number in doing so.
Pick: Patriots -3.5

Ray: As Rich referenced, this total is historic even if it comes on the heels of back-to-back 57.5-point marks for the Falcons. The database I use goes all the way back to 1989, and in that time there have been just six games featuring a total of 59 points or more. Interestingly but not surprisingly, three of those games featured “The Greatest Show on Turf” Rams of the early 2000s, and two of the matchups occurred in the playoffs – Lions at Saints in a 2011 Wild Card matchup and Packers at Falcons in the 2016 NFC Championship Game.

The over-under results of these matchups have been a mixed bag, but that is all because of the Rams. The under hit in two of their three games with the other one pushing at 59 points on the dot. The last three games with this large a total all went over with room to spare in the most recent examples. The Lions and Saints combined for 73 points in their matchup, and the Falcons and Packers managed 65. That history is not really actionable information for this game, but it does show this big of a total is not an automatic under bet.

As for these two teams, the Chiefs are second in the league averaging 35 points per game and have failed to hit 30 points just once. They scored 27 in that game in a tough primetime spot in Denver. The Patriots are “only” managing 26.6 per contest, but they have been better recently, scoring 38 in back-to-back games. Neither team has run a gaudy number of plays, but both are top eight in Football Outsiders’ situation-neutral pace, meaning they run plays quickly when the game is still in doubt. Given the 3.5-point line, that should be the expectation here.

It also helps matchups between Andy Reid and Bill Belichick have tended to be high scoring affairs, especially of late. In their last five matchups, Reid’s and Belichick’s squads have averaged 57.6 points per game with two of them hitting 59 points and one, the opening-night drubbing last season, finishing 42-27.

There has to be at least some concern this game, which is as big as a Week 6 contest can be for both teams, is nervy early, which would hurt the scoring output. On the other hand, one could argue this total is actually lower than it should be given the two teams involved and would be higher if there was more precedent for these kinds of numbers. I fall in the latter camp, which means I am going to suck it up, close my eyes, and bet the over.

Pick: Over 59.5

49ers @ Packers (-9.5) – 46.5-point total
Ray: Many of my angles over the next several weeks will revolve around byes, which I do not believe are properly accounted for by line-makers and the betting public. The rest and prep time is obviously important, and those extra hours appear to prevent teams from faltering where they otherwise might. One such example is big-home favorites (seven points or more), which are just 327-307-8 ATS (51.6%) overall. That record jumps to 31-15 ATS (67.4%) before the bye, however, an increase significant enough and over a large enough sample to suggest the bye has an effect. I also believe the Packers are simply a much better team than the 49ers despite some struggles early in the season. Playing favorites is usually not my thing – this week tells a different story – but it worked last week with the Chargers, and I will go back to the well here.

Pick: Packers -9.5

Steelers @ Bengals (-2) – 52.5-point total
Rich: This is one of the weirder trends, but one that I brought up Week 1 and will continue to bet the few times per season it comes up. That trend is betting on the Steelers underperforming on the road in early start games. Over the past five seasons, the Steelers have hit their implied team total in just 6-of-23 games in early road starts and the under for the game total has wildly hit in 19 of those 23 games. At 52.5 total points, we’re getting a lot to work with in that regard as just three of those games reached 50 combined points.

Pick: Under 52.5

Bears @ Dolphins (+3.5) – 41.5-point total
Ray: Again, playing favorites, especially short-road favorites, is not my usual cup of tea, but byes tend to make bad situations good. Road favorites are an even-money proposition in general, but after a bye, they are 39-18 ATS (68.4%) since 2008. That record jumps to 25-8 (75.8%) for favorites of three or more, which is good enough to be a blind-bet trend. This is not that, however. The Bears are a good team with a great defense, and the Dolphins have shown their true colors the last two games, albeit on the road. With an extra week to prepare, the Bears should handle their business here.

Pick: Bears -3.5

Bills @ Texans (-10) – 41-point total
Rich: Since 2008, we have had teams playing off back-to-back overtime games just 17 times. In those circumstances, those teams have been a near even 8-9 against the spread, which isn’t something to capitalize on at the surface level. However, favorites in that spot are just 3-6 against the spread and teams giving away more than three points are 0-5. I also don’t really believe the Texans should be favored by double-digit points against any team in the NFL while Buffalo’s defense has been much better over the past month. After allowing opponents to score a touchdown on 40 percent (10-of-25) of their possessions through two weeks (32nd), the Bills have allowed a touchdown on 9.1 percent (3-of-33) of drives the past three weeks, the lowest rate in the league. Two weeks in a row, we’re holding our nose and taking the Bills and the points.

Pick: Bills +10

Chargers @ Browns (+1) – 45-point total
Rich: The Browns are also coming off back-to-back long overtime games and are a short-home dog against the Chargers. While underdogs off two overtime outings in a row are 5-3 against the spread since 2008, all five of those that covered were getting 3.5 or more points and all three losses were with the team getting fewer points. That’s because, as you’d expect, the results for teams straight up off of multiple overtime games is poor, with teams posting a 6-11 record. That makes it a lot easier to swallow leaving just one point on the table here if we expect the Chargers to win outright. I can feel Ray rolling his eyes at me as I am about to pick a short-road favorite here, especially a west coast team playing in an early start time, but I feel like I am justified. The Chargers have been a sketchy team traveling east overall but have delivered when they are supposed to win the game as opposed to being underdogs. They have outright won five of their past six early-start games when favored (that one loss was to a winless Cleveland team even though neither Keenan Allen nor Melvin Gordon played), and we’re really only focused on the straight up result since we’re only talking about laying a point.
Pick: Chargers -1

Jaguars @ Cowboys (+3) – 40.5-point total
Ray: I cannot judge Rich because I also will be betting a short-road favorite here for basically the same reason. The Cowboys are coming off an overtime game, this one on Sunday night no less, and are home underdogs. In general, home teams are not penalized by line-makers as much as away teams for short rest or overtime games, and that creates favorable situations. Home teams after an overtime game are just 52-85-6 ATS (38%) since 2008, and underdogs are 16-30-3 ATS (34.8%). It did not work out last week with the Ravens, but I will take another stab at it again this Sunday with the Jaguars, who probably would have been better than three-point favorites if not for their loss last week in Kansas City.

Pick: Jaguars -3

Colts @ Jets (-2.5) – 45-point total
Ray: Finally we are back to my bread and butter. Taking short-road underdogs off a road loss is a staple of my betting diet. That spot is 45-22-3 ATS (67.2%) since 2008 and got us a clean win last week with the Vikings. This situation is made better by the Jets handily beating the Broncos last week, giving them more public faith. I would like to see the Colts a bit healthier on defense, but I think they are the better team which should be favored on a neutral site, making this spread look like a value. As with all underdogs of less than three, I will personally bet the money line.
Pick: Colts +2.5