Welcome to another edition of the SAF (Samulski’s Arbitrary Fantasy) Awards! I’m your host, Eric Samulski, and we’ve come to the thirteenth week of this weekly awards segment where we shine a light on the best performances, the disappointing performances, and the most misleading performances in the week of NFL action.
As the name states, the SAF Awards are totally arbitrary but no less valid and desirable awards given out by me based on the committee of voices in my head. Some awards will carry over every week while others will emerge from the ether based on my mood or the mercurial winds of pop culture trends.
While you will find plenty of actionable fantasy football information here, you’re not likely to get many of the fantasy football acronyms that make me feel like a real estate agent: EPA, aDOT, YACON, etc. Those are all valuable and have their place, but that place is not here. This is the place where we give out awards, talk some trash, and have some fun.
If you have players you believe are deserving of awards or want to suggest awards for the next week, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (@SamskiNYC). But without further ado, let’s hand out some hardware that doesn’t exist and people wouldn’t really want if it did!
Star of the Week: Deebo Samuel - WR, San Francisco 49ers
Yes, technically Deebo was outscored by DK Metcalf by 0.6 points in half-ppr formats, but I wanted to highlight Deebo here because it’s been a rough season for the 49ers star. Before the 49ers’ bye week, Deebo was averaging just 10.3 fantasy points per game in half-ppr scoring and also went into the bye battling an injury. Since
the Week 9 bye, Deebo is the fifth-ranked wide receiver with 18.6 fantasy points per game in half-PPR formats.
He’s scored five touchdowns in the last four games and had both a receiving and rushing touchdown on Sunday in a beatdown of the Eagles. In that game, Deebo caught all four targets for 116 yards and two touchdowns and added 22 yards and another touchdown on three carries. Obviously, four targets and three carries is not a huge utilization rate, so this is something we need to keep an eye on in the future with Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle around; however, Deebo still has that home run upside and a really friendly schedule coming up for the fantasy football playoffs.
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Breakout Player Award: Jake Browning - QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Well, that was unexpected. A week after Jake Browning looked unprepared in an admittedly tough matchup against the Steelers, he absolutely throttled the Jaguars, completing 32-of-37 passes for 354 yards and a touchdown, while adding 22 yards rushing and another touchdown to give him 26.2 points in half-ppr formats.
He didn’t just do this with easy throws or receivers making big plays after the catch too. He drove the ball down the field and showcased good touch on passes over the middle of the field. It’s very likely that this was a ceiling game for him against a vulnerable Jacksonville secondary, but we know he has this in him, which should make us feel a little better about rostering Bengals receivers.
Abe Simpson Award: Christian Watson - WR, Green Bay Packers
After battling through injuries and struggling to get on the same page with Jordan Love, it seemed like Christian Watson had turned his season around over the last two weeks, catching 12-of-16 targets for 165 yards and three touchdowns. That came with target shares of 25% and 27% as he was re-emerging as the go-to option in the Packers’ offense with Jordan Love trending upwards as well.
Then, Watson suffered his fifth hamstring injury in two years and, given his lengthy injury history, could miss multiple games to ensure he’s fully healthy. So that ends that short-lived fun.
Horizon Award: Parker Washington - WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Horizon Award is where we look for a player who looks like they could be on the verge of a breakout. This week, we give that award to rookie Jaguars receiver Parker Washington who figures to step into a bigger role in the offense now that Christian Kirk will miss the remainder of the season after undergoing core muscle surgery.
After Kirk left the field, Washington stepped into a huge role, running a route on 74% of dropbacks and seeing a 16% target share, which amounted to six catches for 61 yards and a touchdown. Washington was only active beginning in Week 11, so we don’t have a large sample size of him playing in this receiving corps, but other than Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones, there is nobody else who should keep Washington off the field. In Week 13, Jones ran routes on 93% of dropbacks and saw an 18% target share, so he will now become the number two receiver in Jacksonville, but he’s battled a knee injury all season and the Jaguars offense operates more effectively when they are using three wide outs, so Washington is a great bench stash in deeper formats.
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Spoiled Milk Award: Jerome Ford - RB, Cleveland Browns
The Spoiled Milk Award goes to a player who has potentially stayed on your roster past their expiration date, much like that carton of milk in the back of your fridge. This week, that award goes to Jerome Ford. The erstwhile starting running back for the Browns has now played on just 51% of snaps in two of his last three games. He’s handled 43% of the team’s rushes or less in three straight games and, in Week 13, Kareem Hunt out-carried him 12-to-9 while Pierre Strong also mixed in for 14% of snaps and 9% of the rushes.
Ford remains the main receiving back in Cleveland, running 37% of the routes in Week 13 but 74% in Week 12, but his role is shrinking as the team is moving to a true committee that favors the hot hand. Ford can remain on your roster, but he’s really a touchdown-dependent RB3 with the way his utilization is shaking out of late.
The Office Space Award: Terry McLaurin - WR, Washington Commanders
This award highlights a player who we’re all looking at on our rosters and thinking:
This week, that award goes to Terry McLaurin. Despite running a route on 90% of Washington’s dropbacks in Week 13, McLaurin had zero catches. He, obviously, finished with zero fantasy points and has been held to single digits for five straight weeks and nine of the 13 games he’s played in 2023.
That’s wild considering that McLaurin is a talented player who has run a route on at least 83% of dropbacks in every game since Week 4 and has been at 90% for the last two weeks. He also has a 21% target share over the season and has seen 33% of the team’s air yards. However, he’s also seen just a 66% catchable target rate, so his usage on deeper pass plays may be hurting his effectiveness. It’s hard to cut a player with this kind of role in an offense that figures to be trailing and throwing a lot in the coming weeks, but McLaurin has also given you nothing, so I understand it.
Ryan Gosling Award: Ezekiel Elliott - RB, New England Patriots
Did you know George Clooney was originally cast as the lead in “The Notebook”? Did you know he was going to play a younger version of Paul Newman? Eventually, George Clooney decided not to go through with it, and Ryan Gosling was cast in the role, and the rest is history.
In the spirit of that moment, we give this award to the player who is set to take over a role vacated by a notable player ahead of them. This week, that award goes to Ezekiel Elliott, the one-time first-round fantasy pick who is now set to be the starting running back for the New England Patriots with Rhamondre Stevenson sidelined for a few weeks and potentially the remainder of the season.
Elliott stepped into a full-time role after Stevenson got hurt, getting 17 carries for 52 yards and catching 4-of-5 targets for 40 yards. This is certainly not the Zeke of old with his 3.8 yards per carry ranking 35th out of 45 running backs with at least 70 attempts, but he figures to get at least 20 touches as the lone running back remaining in New England. Now, it’s a bad offense with the third-worst in TD drive percentage in the NFL, but that kind of workload is tough to come by in fantasy football and with nothing left to play for this season, it’s not crazy to think that the Patriots might just hold Stevenson out for the remainder of the year.
Antonio Gibson is another player who we could mention here since Commanders’ running back Brian Robinson is set to miss a few weeks with an injury as well. After Robinson left in Week 13, Gibson played on 66% of snaps, took 44% of the rushing attempts and had a 73% route participation. Chris Rodriguez did play on 35% of snaps and took 44% of the carries, but he had just a 7% route participation, and that’s where Gibson’s value comes in. The Commanders have a brutal playoff schedule and figure to be trailing often, which drastically favors Gibson over Rodriguez. Of course, they are also on bye this week, and we don’t know how long Robinson will be out, so this might be a one week role.
That’s it for this week; we’ll see you next Wednesday for another edition of the SAF Awards!
