Spotting guys who have overperformed their opportunity and those who have been on the wrong side of what we’ll call variance — because “luck” is so crass — can help us with waiver wire additions, start-sits, and sneaky DFS plays, if you’re into that sort of thing.
That’s my goal with the Regression Files: Pinpointing players seemingly due for regression to the mean, for better or worse.
We’ll start with players who have run cold of late, and who might be due for something of a bounce back in Week 11 and beyond.
Regression Candidates (The Good Kind)
Quarterback
Will Levis (TEN)
I’ve sliced and diced the numbers every which way in an effort to make Titans fans a little less angry with me. There’s no way around it though — Will Levis has been not-so-great in three NFL starts.
This, of course, has something to do with the kinds of throws Levis is making. He leads all NFL quarterbacks in air yards per attempt (10.7) and his average depth of target leads all QBs over the past few weeks. Those are high variance throws; when they don’t work, things get ugly in a hurry.
I’m throwing Levis in this space because he’s converted a truly unbelievably low 31 percent of his air yards into actual passing yards. That’s by far the lowest mark in the league. For contes, Brock Purdy leads the NFL with a 66 percent air yards conversion rate. Even the most middling quarterbacks convert 50 percent of their air yards. If Levis’ conversion rate regresses positively in the next week or two, his stat lines will suddenly look a lot more suitable for fantasy purposes. It won’t be bad for this pass catchers either.
Running Back
Austin Ekeler (LAC)
Forget for a moment that Ekeler kinda sorta looks like late-career Jerome Bettis and focus on his opportunity in the high-value part of the field. Ekeler, despite missing three and a half games with injury, has 19 rushes inside the ten yard line — the sixth most green zone carries in the NFL through Week 11.
He’s managed a touchdown on just four of those carries — all of them originating from inside the five. Though the Chargers remain one of the league’s pass heaviest red zone teams, Ekeler should continue being fed near the end zone. Eventually, as Bettis once did, he’ll make good on those chances.
The real concern for Ekeler is his lack of involvement in the passing game. He seems not to be a priority for Justin Herbert, with a targets per route run of 19.5 percent, well below his 2022 TPRR of 27.4 percent. Ekeler’s yards per route run sits at the lowest mark of his NFL career. That’s a not-so-great development for his fantasy prospects.
Tyler Allgeier (ATL)
Calling for the good kind of regression for a running back a couple weeks after he gets phased out of his run-heavy offense is great process. I don’t care what anyone says.
Allgeier, two weeks removed from seeing a meager nine rushes to Bijan Robinson’s 22 carries against the Cardinals, has vastly underperformed his 2022 rushing metrics this season. The short of it: Allgeier last season was downright elite in yards after contact per rush; this year he’s been well below average. Maybe Allgeier is dinged up or something, but any kind of movement toward his 2022 efficiency could make for a welcomed development down the stretch of the fantasy season.
The Falcons remain monstrously run heavy. Against the Cards in Week 10, they were 20 percent below their expected drop back rate. If Arthur Smith ever looked at a single number, he would be happy to know his Falcons have the NFL’s lowest pass rate over expected in 2023. That kind of offensive philosophy could field rushing attempts for Allegeir as the team’s clear-cut RB2.
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Wide Receiver
Diontae Johnson (PIT)
I had to file an emergency appeal to the Eleventh Circuit Court to be able to write about Diontae as a positive regression candidate this week. Pat Daugherty and his lawyers will never beat me.
Look, things have been bleak for the Steelers. Horror movie, make-you-cry bleak. I get it. Pittsburgh has gone ultra run heavy over their past three games in an effort to hide Kenny Pickett and get the ball into the hands of their best player: Jaylen Warren. It’s worked in some ways, but it’s a fragile approach to offensive football and the team seems to know. Hence, they mercifully axed OC Matt Canada on Tuesday morning.
Diontae, thanks to these run heavy ways and abysmal play from Pickett, has three catches on 12 targets over his past two outings. The Eleventh Circuit has said I can tell you the following facts about those two games: Johnson has seen 55 percent of the team’s air yards and 26 percent of the targets. That’s real-deal domination. If, by chance, the Steelers’ offense improves in the coming weeks under new OC Eddie Faulkner, and if Pickett can play somewhat less poorly, Diontae stands to benefit as the team’s target vacuum.
ESPN reported this week that George Pickens could be a focal point of new OC Mike Sullivan’s offense, for the record. Unless Pickens sees far more intermediate targets, that isn’t going to happen. I’m not completely discounting a role change though.
Nico Collins (HOU)
Returning from injury in Week 11 against the Cardinals, Collins ran 75 percent of the Texans’ routes and led the team with 11 targets. It resulted in a humble seven grabs for 65 yards.
Noah Brown’s injury cleared the way for Collins and Tank Dell to dominate air yards against Arizona. Collins’ 27 percent air yards share (102 total air yards) isn’t half bad until you look at Dell’s numbers: 42 percent air yards share and more air yards than anyone not named Mike Evans or Davante Adams. Yes, Dell is that good.
Probably you’re starting Collins in Week 12 against the Jaguars. Just know it’s the right decision with his former role seemingly locked in. Before his injury absence, Collins was converting air yards into real yards at a 60 percent rate, one of the highest marks among wideouts.
Tight End
Logan Thomas (WAS)
This isn’t to say Thomas is underperforming his immense talent or upside or whatever. He is what he is: An aging converted quarterback lumbering around the field every Sunday.
That doesn’t mean Thomas isn’t in a good spot for our purposes. He runs basically every pass route in a Commanders offense that trails only the Chiefs and Bengals in pass rate over expected. He has at least five targets in six of his past seven games. Only seven tight ends in the league have more targets than Thomas. You could do a lot worse than Thomas in Week 12. The Commanders could throw 400 times against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. You have to imagine Thomas can hit double digit targets in such a scenario.
David Njoku (CLE)
Njoku appears to be the big winner of a Browns offense quarterbacked by a fifth-round rookie who refuses to throw the ball more than five yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson, in his second NFL start in Week 11, notched an unholy 4.1 adjusted yards per attempt and an average depth of target of 3.6. That resulted in 15 targets for Njoku, who managed 56 yards on seven catches. It’s as fine a PPR scam as you’ll find.
Njoku, now fifth in targets among all NFL tight ends, is still running rather cold on the season. He’s 13 PPR points below his expected fantasy output; Chig Okonkwo and Dawson Knox are the only tight ends who have been more inefficient in 2023. A truckful of check downs from DTR could mean a bunch of cheap PPR points for Njoku in the coming weeks. Leading all tight ends in yards after the catch per reception (8), Njoku is the kind of player who can make good with a glut of opportunities.
Regression Candidates (The Bad Kind)
Quarterback
Bryce Young (CAR)
This feels like piling on. Yet, I must.
You don’t believe it’s possible that Young can be a worse fantasy producer than he has been through 11 weeks of his miserable rookie campaign. And maybe you’re right. Consider this though: Young has run (very) hot inside the ten yards line, throwing eight touchdowns on just 17 green zone attempts. Only four quarterbacks have a higher green zone touchdown rate this season.
If the Regression Reaper comes for that green zone touchdown production, Young’s numbers could — somehow, some way — look even worse in the coming weeks. I’m not sure the 2023 No. 1 overall pick is even usable in superflex formats.
Running Back
Gus Edwards (BAL)
Per the Congressional Regression Act of 1987, I am required to tell you Gus Edwards has scored a touchdown on 17 percent of his rushes over the past four games.
Will Edwards keep owning the analytics nerds? With a locked-in role as Baltimore’s red zone back, yes, probably. Does he become a barely usable RB3 when he does not manage at least one touchdown? He does. Both of these statements are true. The Edwards drafters will keep riding this bus straight through the hearts of the math truthers.
Wide Receiver
Brandin Cooks (DAL)
Cooks has a 12 percent target share and a 17 percent air yards share since Week 6. He’s fantasy’s 17th highest scoring wideout over that stretch.
The beneficiary of some big downfield plays during the Cowboys’ total abandonment of the run over the past month, Cooks is getting away with it bigly. Cooks’ Week 10 performance against the Giants (nine catches for 173 yards and a touchdown) was largely an aberration. CeeDee Lamb’s total domination of air yards and targets in the pass-first Dallas offense likely means Cooks and Michael Gallup will have to get there on limited volume.
Be aware that Cooks goes against the miserable Commanders secondary on Thanksgiving.
Noah Brown (HOU)
Brown missed Week 11 with a knee issue and is still eighth in receiving yards since Week 7. He’s been incredibly productive for the Houston offense with a humble 22 percent target share over that span. The Regression Reaper cometh.
Brown is now averaging 21 yards per reception in 2023, a slight bump over his career mark of 13.8. His 2023 yards per route run is more than double his career yards per route run. You get the picture. Nico Collins’ return for injury could mark the end of Brown’s consistent involvement in the Texans offense. That Houston uses three receiver sets at the league’s seventh lowest rate means Brown -- primarily a slot wideout -- won’t see anything resembling a full complement of routes with Collins back in the lineup. Beware the Reaper.
Tight End
Cole Kmet (CHI)
Justin Fields is back, and it appears the Bears are once again using him correctly. That might not be a great development for any Chicago pass catcher not named D.J. Moore.
Kmet was OK in Fields’ Week 11 return against the Lions. He caught three of four targets for 20 yards. The problem is that four targets constituted a 15 percent target share, as the Bears were a whopping 17 percent below their expected drop back rate. It was the team’s run heaviest game of 2023, and it included 18 rushing attempts for Fields. That left precious little meat on the bone: Fields threw just 23 passes against the Lions.
Moore, meanwhile, is devouring air yards and targets in this run-heavy scheme. He saw 55 percent of the Bears’ air yards and 41 percent of the targets against the Lions. Unless Kmet — who ran 19 routes on 29 Fields drop backs last week — can cut into that, he’s going to be a touchdown-dependent fantasy option.
