The goal of this regression-centric space is to tell fantasy football folks which of their borderline fantasy options are running particularly hot or particularly cold, to use a little technical language.
Every week during the regular season I’ll highlight players whose usage and opportunity doesn’t quite match their production. That might look like a running back scoring touchdowns at an unsustainable clip or a pass catcher putting up big stat lines while working as a rotational player in his offense. It could also look like a pass catcher seeing gobs of air yards and targets without much to show for it. Things of that nature.
👉 Some stats I’ll focus on weekly in the Regression Files: Rush yards over expected, targets per route, air yards, air yards per target, red zone targets, green zone targets, quarterback touchdown rate, and expected touchdowns. A lot of this regression stuff, as you probably know, comes down to touchdowns — specifically, predicting touchdowns (or lack thereof).
I’ll (mostly) ignore every-week fantasy options who you’re going to play whether they’re running hot or cold, or somewhere in between. My goal is to make this column as actionable as possible for all fantasy formats. Telling you to keep playing Derrick Henry during a cold streak doesn’t strike me as actionable.
I thought I’d start today’s column with a quick look at players who are commanding targets at a high rate, and asking whether this is sustainable for the coming weeks and the rest of the fantasy season.
Regular Regression Files readers know I write a lot (too much?) about players’ target-commanding abilities, as measured in targets per route. This isn’t just a fun exercise: It’s a worthwhile look at pass catchers who are regularly getting open and/or a focal point of their respective offense when they’re on the field and running routes.
Leaders in Targets Per Route Run (TPRR)
- Puka Nacua (45 percent)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (44 percent)
- Noah Fant (41 percent)
- Zay Flowers (39 percent)
- Jaylen Warren (38 percent)
- Parker Washington (35 percent)
- Christian McCaffrey (33 percent)
- Jake Ferguson (32 percent)
- Davante Adams (32 percent)
- Jahmyr Gibbs (32 perent)
- Cam Skattebo (31 percent)
- Mike Evans (30 percent)
- Chris Olave (30 percent)
- De’Von Achane (29 percent)
- Tyreek Hill (29 percent)
- Nico Collins (28 percent)
- Garrett Wilson (28 percent)
- Keenan Allen (28 percent)
- CeeDee Lamb (27 percent)
- Juwan Johnson (27 percent)
Noah Fant (CIN)
That Fant has run a route on just 32 percent of the Bengals’ drop backs means the team simply does not see him as a full-time player. His fumble-six last week against Minnesota surely won’t help his case. Keep this gaudy TPRR filed away unless Mike Gesicki misses time and the Bengals have no choice but to ramp up Fant’s route participation.
Parker Washington (JAC)
Washington became an every-down wideout in Week 3 after Dyami Brown went down with injury. He led the Jaguars with nine targets (catching four for 34 yards). Such a heady TPRR could be meaningful in deeper fantasy formats if Brown misses time.
Jaylen Warren (PIT)
Aaron Rodgers said after Week 2 that the Steelers needed to pepper Warren with targets. While that hasn’t come to fruition — he has just 12 targets this season — he’s making the most of it, leading all backs in yards per route. Warren in Week 3 saw an increase in pass game usage, running a route on about half of Rodgers’ drop backs. It’d be nice to see that rate get to 65-70 percent.
Jake Ferguson (DAL)
Ferguson isn’t good but who cares? With CeeDee Lamb sidelined for the next month with an ankle injury, Fergie could be an elite weekly option. I can think of only two tight ends I’d rather start over Ferguson for now: Trey McBride and Brock Bowers, and only by a hair.
Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson (NO)
Keep the faith on Olave. The Saints are running a ton of offensive plays and Olave is being targeted at high rates every week. He’ll get there one day. Johnson, meanwhile, has run a route on 79 percent of the Saints’ drop backs. He should be a beneficiary of the team’s disastrous season.
Cam Skattebo (NYG)
Russell Wilson targeted the rookie running back on 35 percent of his routes in Sunday night’s loss to the Chiefs. His role as New York’s lead back was cemented by Tyrone Tracy’s shoulder dislocation, which will keep him sidelined for some time. Though Skattebo’s TPRR will shrink, if it stays north of 25 percent, the Big Boy Back could be one of the most appealing PPR backs in the game. Jaxson Dart might hurt Skattebo’s receiving upside if he’s more apt to take off and run than to check down to his outlet options.
📈 Positive Regression Candidates
Daniel Jones (IND)
No, you say. Jones was supposed to go in the negative regression part of this column. This must be a mistake. You want a refund.
Jones is in fact running cold on passing touchdowns through three games. Sure, he’s second among all QBs in fantasy points per drop back as the head of the ultra-efficient Shane Steichen Machine, but Jones has thrown a touchdown on just 3.4 percent of his passes this season. That ranks 25th out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks. Bryce Young and Mac Jones have higher TD rates.
In a Colts offense moving the ball at will — averaging a league-leading 6.6 yards per play — I’d expect Jones to see an uptick in passing scores in the coming weeks. That plus his rushing upside makes Daniel D. Dimes a high-end fantasy option whether you like it or not. Don’t let his modest Week 3 output fool you into seeking another QB on the wire.
Tyler Warren (IND)
Daniel D. Dimes’ tight end is also the good kind of regression candidate in Week 4 and beyond. I know it’s been a little tedious and maybe crazy-making to see so many Colts put up gaudy statistics with Warren posting good-but-not-great fantasy numbers. I understand this because I have Warren in my two most important leagues.
.@Colts are using their rookie tight end; Tyler Warren, in so many different ways. It's easy to get creative with his toughness & talent. @PennStateFball #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/CN3OUy68Gf
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) September 22, 2025
Before you get an itchy lineup-changing finger and swap Warren for another tight end, remember he’s leading all tight ends in receiving yards, he’s sixth in receptions, and he’s fourth in targets. It’s just the touchdowns that are missing. And with tight ends, touchdowns are big. Ask folks who started (or benched) Hunter Henry in Week 3.
Warren is seeing a target on 26 percent of his routes through three games. That’s tied with Josh Downs for the highest TPRR on the team. The Colts being ultra run-heavy in the red zone isn’t the best development for Warren (or Michael Pittman, for that matter). The Colts have a grand total of four end zone targets in three games; Warren has one. Even so, the touchdowns will come for the impressive rookie.
Jerry Jeudy (CLE)
This isn’t what we signed up for when we drafted Jeudy as a volume-based WR3 who could get there every week because Joe Flacco was going to drop back 50 times a game. The Browns haven’t been pass heavy by any measure. In fact, they’re 19th in pass rate over expected through three games.
The reasons are twofold: Cleveland’s defense is elite, stopping runaway negative game flow, and Quinshon Judkins appears to be pretty good, and the centerpiece of Kevin Stefanski’s offense. So it goes.
Jeudy has been utterly miserable this season. He has fewer catches than Hunter Renfrow and fewer yards than Sterling Shepard. Jeudy is being targeted on a depressing 18 percent of his pass routes. It wasn’t supposed to be this way.
I’m legally required to inform you that Jeudy is 14th among all receivers in air yards, however. He’s accounted for 44 percent of the Browns’ air yards, the tenth highest rate in the league. That might, one day, count for something. In Week 4, Jeudy takes on a pass-funnel Detroit defense allowing the fourth most yards to wideouts. So he has that going for him, which is nice.
Michael Penix (ATL)
Penix probably isn’t as bad as he’s looked of late. I’m here to tell you Penix through three games has thrown a touchdown on 1 percent of his attempts (one TD on 99 throws).
The metrics say Penix has been OK as Atlanta’s starter. He ranks 17th out of 34 QBs in drop backs success rate, but his completion rate over expected sits at 30th among 34 qualifying quarterbacks. His net adjusted yards per attempt is dismal (4.9), in the dreaded CJ Stroud Zone.
The Falcons, I suppose, have no choice but to stick it out with Penix this season after forsaking Kirk Cousins, who completed five of seven throws for 29 yards in mop-up mode against the Panthers last week. This is just a note saying Penix’s TD rate has nowhere to go but up.
📉 Negative Regression Candidates
Tre Tucker (LV)
This isn’t as easy as telling you Tucker won’t catch three touchdowns every week and he was just running insanely hot in runaway negative game script in Week 3. You know you could roster Tucker for the rest of his NFL career and never have another game in the same galaxy as Sunday’s performance, a 40-point PPR outburst against the Commanders.
Geno Smith finds Tre Tucker for his 2nd TD of the game 🏴☠️
— Raider Nation (@RaidersNationCP) September 21, 2025
pic.twitter.com/cQMQfZenEV
Tucker, headed into Week 3, had been targeted on a humble 14 percent of this routes and accounted for 21 percent of the Raiders’ air yards, a little bit behind Jakobi Meyers and a little bit ahead of Brock Bowers. After his Week 3 explosion, Tucker has a comfortable lead in air yards share (27 percent) and now has a TPRR of 18.5 percent. Bowers drafters, look away for this one: Tucker through Week 3 is second among Vegas pass catchers in first-read targets (25 percent). It’s another reminder of the unknown unknowns in our little game.
Tucker is running a route on 92 percent of the Raiders’ drop backs. He’s out there and in Week 3, he was earning targets against a pretty good secondary. Though the Raiders were 14 percent below their expected pass rate in Week 3 — trying to make the astoundingly ordinary Ashton Jeanty a thing — we can expect Geno Smith to sling it most weeks and for Vegas to be among the league leaders in pass attempts at year’s end. That’s a decidedly good thing for a secondary option like Tucker. He’s a fine flex option going forward.
Aaron Rodgers (PIT)
Old Man Aaron is really, really getting away with it through three games. With an 8.1 percent touchdown rate — third highest behind Lamar Jackson and Jared Goff — Rodgers is staying afloat for fantasy purposes with TDs alone. Historically this is not a reliable formula.
Rodgers’ hasn’t been good this season: He ranks 28th out of 32 qualifying QBs in drop back success rate, 15th in adjusted yards per attempt, and 30th in completion rate over expected. The Steelers’ offense is nothing but check-downs and clutch red zone throws. Rodgers has a higher fantasy points per drop back than Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, and Jayden Daniels. It’s not going to last.
Week 4 is as good a time as any for this house of touchdown-heavy cards to come crashing down. Rodgers and the Steelers are facing a Vikings defense that prides itself on putting opposing passers in the proverbial blender. Through Week 3, the Vikings are giving up the league’s fourth lowest adjusted yards per attempt and second lowest completion rate over expected. Rodgers should be nowhere near starting lineups this week in one-QB leagues.
Hunter Henry (NE)
All Henry does is lead the Patriots in receiving. He did it in 2024 and he’s kinda doing it again in 2025. Henry is fifth in tight end targets and seventh in tight end receiving yards following his Week 3 blow-up against the Steelers (during which he was targeted on a strong 29 percent of his pass routes).
This (likely) won’t last, as you know. What you should be asking: Is Henry an every-week starter in 12-team formats? I think he could be, considering the letdowns we have at tight end through three games. I’d easily start Henry over the likes of washed Travis Kelce and Chig Okonkwo. Only five teams have a higher pass rate over expected than New England this season. That kind of drop back volume could keep Henry afloat as an every-week guy who could be somewhat touchdown depdendant.
Luther Burden (CHI)
As a heavy Burden best ball drafter, it was nice and fun to see the rookie catch a long flea flicker touchdown from Caleb Williams on Sunday. It’s not the sort of opportunity I had in mind when I drafted Burden, who entered the league with the profile of a classic PPR scam artist. I will take it.
Be careful on throwing Burden into your Week 4 lineups though. Against Dallas last week he logged just nine pass routes. He was targeted on three of them, caught all three, and went for 101 yards and a touchdown. Burden is still operating as Chicago’s WR4 and can’t be used in 12-team fantasy lineups until he overtakes Olamide Zaccheus. That could happen in Week 4 or it could happen in Week 8. Ben Johnson is a temperamental man.
Oronde Gadsden II (LAC)
No player has made me feel older than Gadsden, a rookie taken by the Chargers with the 165th pick of the 2025 draft. I watched Gadsden’s dad function as Dan Marino’s de facto WR1 in the mid-90s. I even emailed him once from my AOL account. I don’t appreciate being made to feel so old.
Anyway, the junior Oronde had a nice Week 3 outing against the Broncos, catching five of his six targets for 46 yards with Will Dissly (knee) sidelined. Gadsden, a target commander in college, got back to his target commanding ways in his first NFL game, seeing a look from Justin Herbert on 47 percent of his routes.
Gadsden didn’t have the full-time tight end role with Dissly out though. He ran a route on just 28 percent of Herbert’s drop backs while Tyler Conklin posted a 27 percent rate (and saw two targets).
My somewhat educated guess would be that Gadsden doesn’t continue being targeted on half of his pass routes in Week 4 and beyond. I still think he’s an interesting player to monitor in deeper leagues. Any tight end who runs half his routes from the slot -- as Gadsden did on Sunday -- should pique our collective interest.
