The dynamic game of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) requires much more than simply knowing the sport for which we’re entering contests to be successful. We must be adaptable, precise, and open to learning from previous endeavors, the latter of which will be the primary focus of this weekly written piece. Game Theoretic methodologies will allow us to analyze and dissect the previous week’s winner of the largest and most prestigious Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournament on DraftKings – the Millionaire Maker. These same tenets of Game Theory, which can most simply be explained as the development of decision-making processes given our own skill and knowledge, assumptions of the field based on the cumulative skill and knowledge of others playing the same game, and the rules and structure of the game itself, will allow us to further train our minds to see beyond the antiquated techniques of roster building being employed by a large portion of the field. Approaching improvement through these methods will give us insight into the anatomy of successful rosters and will help us develop repeatably profitable habit patterns for the coming weeks. We’ll start by looking at the previous week’s winning roster, extract any pertinent lessons for future utilization, and finish with a look ahead towards the coming main slate.
Winning Roster
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Lessons Learned
The Value of Low Ownership
Chalk is going to develop on each slate we play. It is simply a certainty. Aspects of these games like human psychology, crowd psychology, and the assumption of rational agents funnels ownership onto specific spots on a weekly basis. On this slate, most of those roster funnels occurred at the wide receiver position, making in an excellent slate to embrace some of the additional variance associated with scoring at that position. DraftKings user themachinebrf exploited those tendencies expertly, with the combined ownership of the three wide receivers on the roster a paltry 11.1 percent. Even so, the three wide receiver stable of Marquise Brown, DJ Moore, and Nico Collins combined to score 85.5 DK points on a week where most of the top options at the position failed to put the slate out of reach (the lone exception was the lowest-owned of the top tier in player pricing – A.J. Brown).
The point here is not to look back on the slate and Monday morning quarterback it, but to highlight the fact that the allocation of salary on this roster went against the grain and reduced the number of teams in the field that the roster had to beat on a path to first place from a structural standpoint. Furthermore, this roster was set up well to leverage that uncertainty should the top wide receivers fail due to the way in which salary was allocated on the roster. Well done, themachinebrf!
The Value of Raw Points
It is no secret that the quarterback and running back positions are easier to project on a weekly basis. That assertion comes via the way in which both positions score points, in that those are the two positions where volume means more to a range of outcomes than bulk scoring through splash play potential. As such, expected ownership numbers are typically less important in the decision-making process at those two positions. In other words, the value of raw points outweighs the negative effects of ownership at quarterback and running back, specifically. As was showcased on this roster, Kyren Williams and Christian McCaffrey both came with elevated ownership numbers. But the fact that the running back position is a position we can project with greater accuracy means that the value of two top three finishes at the position outweighs the need to be different.
The same can be said for D/ST, but with a different process leading to the same conclusion. D/ST is the most variant position on a DFS roster, and the standard theoretical narrative urges players to leverage that uncertainty by allocating as little salary as possible. But the value of raw points dictates that a separator score at the position immediately makes that defensive unit optimal, creating an immense funnel at the top of leaderboards on weeks where one unit vastly outperforms the rest of the field. This won’t always be the case, of course, but highlights the need to capture raw points at the position over saving salary.
Missed Opportunities
Even with the numerous hits on this roster, there were spots where points were left on the table. And we’re not talking Monday morning quarterback, but legitimate theoretical opportunities to improve the roster. Since tight end production is so heavily tied to touchdowns, and since those touchdowns (mostly) are thrown by the quarterback, pairing the two together on a roster increases hit rate while lowering the variables. Simply adding Cole Kmet to the primary stack would have been the theoretical optimal employment of Justin Fields considering the highly concentrated nature of the pass offense. Basically, if Fields were to succeed through the air, it was highly likely that his production would flow through DJ Moore and Kmet.
Looking Ahead
Lamar Jackson + Mark Andrews
Lamar Jackson continues to prove that his dynamic skillset can overcome difficult matchups in the team’s Week 4 win over the Browns, who came into the week ranked as the top overall defense in the league. Jackson has scored four rushing touchdowns over the previous two weeks and should continue to command the lion’s share of the green zone rushing workload after the loss of J.K. Dobbins. With Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham Jr out of the lineup, Jackson homed in on tight end Mark Andrews, tossing both his touchdowns through the air to the veteran tight end. The value of raw points is likely to take on additional meaning in Week 5 with so many poor game environments on the slate. Finally, we shouldn’t expect the ownership levels on these two to get out of hand considering the presence of so many elite quarterbacks on the slate.
Tutu Atwell
49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan had an interesting press conference this week where he stated that the dynamics of the copycat league have shifted a bit, with teams now copying concepts introduced by Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel. In his breakdown, Shanahan highlighted the use of pre-snap motion and routes that don’t fit the standard 1-9 route tree. In McDaniel’s offense, the player these ideas are built around is Tyreek Hill. On Shanahan’s offense in San Francisco, that player is Deebo Samuel. For Sean McVay and the Rams, that player is none other than Tutu Atwell. This is important information as it pertains to how new-age offensive minds are looking to exploit two-high defensive alignments, which is the governing alignment in the current state of the league.
Atwell has seen a target on almost 35 percent of the routes in which he is the pre-snap motion man for the Rams this season, which helps to explain his steady target totals to this point in the season. Another eight to nine high value targets is likeliest in this spot, with additional upside introduced via the handful of rushing attempts we expect on a standard week. The upside is evident and the ownership is likely to be low, making Atwell an interesting piece to gain exposure to one of the top game environments on the slate in Week 5.
Bijan Robinson and Derrick Henry
The state of the upcoming slate is highly likely to filter ownership to the high-priced wide receivers. Saquon Barkley is coming off a significant injury and the Giants currently rank dead last in point differential this season, having scored just three offensive touchdowns on the season (all of which came in one half of play against the Cardinals). Jonathan Taylor is in one of the most difficult matchups on the ground and has yet to play a game this season. Kyren Williams is in another of the most difficult matchups on the ground and emerged from Week 4 with a hip injury. From there, we start to get down to the mid-priced range of salary at the running back position.
That should leave rather sparse expected ownership levels on both Bijan Robinson and Derrick Henry at the top of player pricing at the running back position and makes for an interesting leverage opportunity on a slate where we expect people to want to spend their salary no the top tier wide receivers.