With just two weeks until the Open Championship, the PGA Tour travels to Illinois for the long-standing John Deere Classic. The John Deere field features zero of the top 50 golfers from the OWGR and is headlined by Webb Simpson and Adam Hadwin. After what felt like a free-fall straight into the busy part of the PGA Tour season, it’s nice to have a weaker field event as we slightly catch our breath before the Open.
The JDC is played at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois. At just 7,200, the par-71 course is fair to the average hitters and the bombers off the tee. Much like other TPC Courses, brilliant ball-strikers tend to excel here. While the four-inch rough isn’t overly penal like Muirfield Village or The Country Club, it’s important to find the fairways here if you want to be in contention come Sunday. These are the key metrics I used when building out my models:
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Birdies or Better Gained
- Driving Accuracy
- Par-4: 400-450
Both golfers who headline the field are the two highest-priced golfers on the board this week. Simpson is the high-priced golfer at $10,600, with Hadwin closely behind at $10,400. The biggest pricing surprise comes from that of Sahith Theegala. The PGA Tour rookie has earned the $10,100 price tag, but it was a bit of a surprise given his high volatility this season. The last golfer in the $10,000 range is the former major winner, Jason Day, at $10,000.
Here’s a look at how I am playing the John Deere Classic on DraftKings DFS:
Favorites:
Webb Simpson ($10,600): If you had a strong opinion about why you’d prefer to roster Hadwin over Simpson, I’d say you couldn’t go wrong with either option. I think we get more bang for our buck with Simpson. While Simpson has battled injury all season, he still has more wins than Hadwin. Hadwin is proof of how hard it is to win on Tour. He has just one PGA Tour win compared to Simpson’s seven. If we’re scoring solely on finishes, this Hadwin has the upper hand with five top-10 finishes versus Simpson’s one.
Despite Hadwin having more quality finishes this season, I’m still riding with Simpson. When backing golfers at TPC, I’m giving the nod to the better ball-strikers. Simpson is a great ball striker who impressed me a lot at Travelers, gaining +3 strokes on approach. He’s accurate off the tee and seems to be stroking his putter. He’s my top favorite to win the tournament, and I will stick with my guy in DFS.
DraftKings Optimal Lineup (Via NBC Sports EDGE+ DFS Tools)
Maverick McNealy ($9,500)
Adam Long ($8,600)
Lucas Glover ($8,300)
Cameron Champ ($8,000)
Chez Reavie ($7,900)
Mark Hubbard ($7,400)
J.T. Poston ($8,000): I’m prepared to be highly disappointed in my roster selection this week. It’s often challenging to roster with fields of this strength. The struggle is real due to the inconsistency of the golfers outside of the top 50 OWGR. It’s important to find good course fits who are also playing good golf at the time. Poston is some I consider playing decent golf over the last few months. He has had three top-10 finishes since April, two of which are top-five. His play at Travelers was spectacular and is something repeatable. Poston is everything you’re looking for in a field like this. He’s a good ball striker, solid putter, and can get birdies in bunches. I will have an outright ticket on him this week as well.
Tread Lightly:
Lanto Griffin ($8,200): This will be a name that pops up on the top of models. He is a guy who is fun to bet but always finds a way to make his backers regret the decision of backing him. He’s the first golfer in my secondary model and was top-10 in my primary model. His game makes sense as to why he projects well in models. He’s a good ball striker, gains a lot strokes on approach, and is often solid off the tee. However, through this run of poor play, he’s been anything but solid off the tee. It’s been over a month since we’ve seen good play from Griffin. He’s not putting well and has been terrible off the tee. The best finish in his last five events has been a 51st. Not interested in Griffin this week.
Sleepers:
Nate Lashley ($7,200): I only weighted BoB Gained 20% in my primary model, yet I’ve added a lot of consideration to the guys who a serious birdie getters. Lashley falls into that category. He ranks fifth in the field in BoB Gained and plays solid golf to match. He’s been known to have solid finishes at events with weaker fields. Events such as the Puerto Rico Open, Corales Puntacana and the Mexico Open.
Austin Smotherman ($7,000): Smotherman is another guy I never get right. The couple of times where he’s had solid outings, and high tournament finishes this season, he wasn’t on my radar. Much like Griffin, he models out well; the biggest difference for me will be his ownership. At projected low ownership, it’s possible to roster a guy like Smotherman, he has a big tournament, and you take down a GPP. He’s highly volatile but is a great ball striker with a high upside.
