The PGA TOUR heads to the Coachella Valley for this week’s American Express.
Played across a trio of courses while also playing with a pro-am format, this is a unique event.
Despite there being three courses to break down, there are still elements of course fit that can be applied to the entire tournament.
First, we can look at performance on the West Coast and then look into past success on courses with not-so-penal rough.
West Coast Swing
The American Express kicks off the California Swing with four of the next five events being in the Golden State. The other is the Phoenix Open in Arizona.
Based on the climate and turf conditions, there are golfers that really thrive at this time of year.
Here are the top performers per round, when playing in events west of Texas, over the last two years:
Jon Rahm
Patrick Cantlay
Tony Finau
Russell Henley
Sungjae Im
Scottie Scheffler
Talor Gooch
Will Zalatoris
Patrick Reed
Kevin Streelman
Jason Day
Lanto Griffin
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
David Lipsky
Abraham Ancer
We can also look at a golfer’s performance versus their baseline to see who over-performs most. Here is that list:
Matthew NeSmith
Andrew Putnam
Wyndham Clark
Austin Cook
David Skinns
David Lipsky
Hayden Buckley
Harry Higgs
Scott Piercy
James Hahn
Russell Knox
Peter Malnati
Adam Hadwin
Tom Hoge
Russell Henley
Overlap List: the names that show up on both lists include David Lipsky and Russell Henley.
Lipsky is a Las Vegas resident so he likely feels comfy here out West. He showcased that with a top 25 at the Fortinet Championship last fall. More impressively, he posted a pair of runner-up finishes out West on the Korn Ferry Tour (2020 Portland Open and 2021 MGM Resorts Championship). Those big finishes are the main reason he lands on these lists but will that translate to the big stage?
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Fairways Optional
The three-course rota is set up to allow the amateur playing partners to make their way around without too much trouble.
As a result, that means very manageable rough, by PGA TOUR standards. Looking at the last six editions, the field has averaged a 78% GIR rate from the fairway and 59% GIR when missing the fairway. That 19% difference is quite small as the PGA TOUR average is roughly a 25% differential.
Here are the top performers per round, when playing on courses with a small penalty for missed fairways, over the last two years:
Jon Rahm
Patrick Cantlay
Abraham Ancer
Tony Finau
Justin Rose
Corey Conners
Sungjae Im
Alex Noren
Scottie Scheffler
Trey Mullinax
Brian Harman
Will Zalatoris
Patrick Reed
We can also look at a golfer’s performance versus their baseline to see who over-performs most. Here is that list:
J.T. Poston
Justin Rose
Roger Sloan
Michael Gligic
Sahith Theegala
Henrik Norlander
Alex Noren
Rory Sabbatini
Jimmy Walker
Michael Thompson
Anirban Lahiri
Kurt Kitayama
Bronson Burgoon
Chris Kirk
C.T. Pan
Overlap List: the names that show up on both lists include Justin Rose and Alex Noren.
Noren and Rose both hit fewer fairways than the field over the last two years, so it makes some sense they would prefer courses where that is not punished as heavily.
FanDuel Focus
Tony Finau ($11,300): The top options for most of the field this week will be Rahm or Cantlay. However, just below them on the salary sheet is Finau. As someone who grew up in Utah and currently resides in Arizona he is very familiar with desert golf. He’s produced top 15s in each of his last two trips to The American Express, racking up 52 birdies along the way in those two starts.
Sahith Theegala (7,500): He’s yet to find his consistency on the big tour but Theegala’s best start of his career was a T8 at the Sanderson Farms Championship. He was a leader or co-leader after each of the first three rounds. He faded to T8 on Sunday but his ability to reach 19-under on the week did not go unnoticed. Now he heads back home to California, this could be another breakout spot for the youngster.
Good luck with your lineups this week and check back tomorrow for some more course-fit analysis.
