TPC Craig Ranch is set to host this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson.
Last year we saw a birdie-fest break out with K.H. Lee racking up 28 circles en route to winning the event.
The course was soft and receptive from rain last year but we should see firmer and faster conditions this time around.
Let’s keep things simple in our stat-fit search and look at lead-in approach play combined with historical putting performance on courses with bentgrass greens.
Green Landings
When you look at last year’s Byron Nelson leaderboard, you’ll notice that lead-in iron play was a key factor for predicting eventual success. Looking at the 12 lead-in rounds of the top-10 finishers (12 of them), all but one of them arrived with a GIR rate less than -0.6, relative to the fields they faced.
Seventy percent of the top-20 finishers had arrived with a positive adjusted GIR rate in their 12 lead-in rounds while the percentage for those that missed the cut was just 45%.
Using the NBC Sports EDGE+ Driver Tool we can find the recent top performers in GIR relative to the field:
Will Zalatoris
Aaron Wise
Jordan Spieth
Brandon Wu
Adam Hadwin
Hideki Matsuyama
Kurt Kitayama
Sepp Straka
Aaron Rai
Mito Pereira
Joaquin Niemann
Henrik Stenson
Nick Taylor
Luke List
Lanto Griffin
Aaron Rai ($23): The Englishman has only lost strokes on approach in two of his last 13 measured events. He’s turned that steady striking into six top 25s in 19 starts this season. That includes a top 10 at the Farmers Insurance Open, another event that is supposed to cater to long hitters like TPC Craig Ranch does paper. Even though Rai isn’t the longest off the tee, I think he can still keep up due to his lights-out iron play.
Editor’s Note: Play for FREE! Download the NBC Sports Predictor app, make picks and win huge, weekly jackpots. Get started here!
Bentgrass Putting
It’s a mixed bag of grass types at TPC Craig Ranch but the pros will see bentgrass putting surfaces.
They held up very well in the rain last year and should roll even better this time around. Let’s see who like roll their rock on bent.
Here are the top performers in strokes gained putting on bentgrass greens, over the last two years:
Stephan Jaeger
Ian Poulter
Alex Noren
Adam Scott
Shaun Norris
Brandt Snedeker
Andrew Putnam
Mackenzie Hughes
Brendon Todd
Dustin Johnson
Maverick McNealy
Pat Perez
Richy Werenski
Beau Hossler
Charles Howell III
Charles Howell III ($26): CH3 has top 33s in three of his last four events despite losing strokes putting in all four. He’s 15th on the bentgrass putting list above so if his flat stick can float back toward his baseline then it could be a profitable week for the veteran.
Hopefully, these stats will give you some names to dive into when it comes to researching your final selections this week over at Yahoo!
