The last two first overall picks in the NHL Entry Draft - Nathan MacKinnon and Aaron Ekblad - have gone on to win the Calder Trophy, but that’s certainly not always the case. Sometimes the rookie of the year is a player who takes people by surprise and sometimes the first overall pick, despite being immensely talented, simply needs some time to adjust to the league.
So attempting to rank the top rookies in the preseason isn’t as easy as just slotting the first overall pick in the top spot and working down from there - or that’s usually true at least. This year the top two slots for the projected Calder Trophy rankings below are obvious. Obviously Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel might not live up to the hype, but based on the information we have right now, it’s hard to bet against them. They appear to be a step above the other rookies of this class and indeed they’re special even when compared to your average first and second overall picks.
That being said, there are some other great players who could also be part of the 2015-16 rookie class, as you’ll see below:
1) Connor McDavid (EDM) - McDavid has been referred to as the next Sidney Crosby and even Wayne Gretzky doesn’t foresee a problem with the 2015 first overall pick making the jump straight to the NHL from the juniors. Watching McDavid play junior hockey, he certainly seems like he’s on another level, but how will he stack up against the world’s best player at the age of 18? Well, we wouldn’t count on him scoring 102 points as a rookie like Crosby did in 2005-06, in part because the league’s scoring has declined since then. However, an 80-point season certainly isn’t out of the realm of possibilities, which would make him one of the league’s top forwards right out of the gate. Don’t for a minute assume that McDavid is immune to the rule that all rookies are risks, but also don’t doubt that the ceiling on him is sky high.
2) Jack Eichel (BUF) - Even with all the hype surrounding him and his dominance in the NCAA, Eichel still wasn’t entirely sure if he should attempt to make the jump to the NHL in 2015-16. Then he played in the 2015 World Championships and he realized he was ready to step up to the next level. He had two goals and seven points in 10 contests in that tournament despite the fact that Team USA actually didn’t have much in the way of top forwards on its roster. He’s a generational talent like McDavid, but Eichel is likely a step behind him. Look for 50-60 points out of Eichel in his debut.
3) Sam Bennett (CAL) - Bennett missed his chance to make the Calgary Flames’ roster out of training camp last season due to a shoulder problem that led to surgery. He reported to OHL Kingston once he was healthy and went on to score 11 goals and 24 points in 11 contests. However, it’s what happened afterwards that made 2014-15 a memorable campaign for him. He went back to Calgary and after getting an NHL game under his belt in the regular season, went on to score three goals and four points in 11 playoff contests. Bennett’s ability to earn the Flames’ trust in the playoffs despite his lack of experience is impressive and he shouldn’t have too much difficulty sticking with the team in 2015-16 after that. He might end up logging second-line minutes and flirting with the 50-point mark.
4) Max Domi (ARI) - The Arizona Coyotes were one of the worst teams offensively last season, but fortunately they have some talented young forwards in the pipeline. Domi is one of the highlights of that group. Taken with the 12th overall pick in 2013, he has recorded 93 and 102 points in his last season seasons with the OHL’s London Knights. Of course, Domi is more than just an offensive threat as he’ll play a tough game that will appeal to standard league fantasy owners. He’s a great bet to make the Coyotes this season and we’re projecting that he’ll finish with about 40 points and 50-75 penalty minutes.
5) Nikolaj Ehlers (WPG) - Taken by the Jets with the ninth overall pick in the 2014 NHL Entry Draft, Ehlers didn’t end up playing for Winnipeg last season. He stood out with WHL Halifax though, recording 37 goals, 101 points, and 67 penalty minutes in 51 contests. He’s in a better position to make the team this time around and might even get a legitimate shot at opening the season on a line with Bryan Little and Andrew Ladd. Given his offensive potential, he’s someone who is easy to get excited about and a great player to take now in keeper leagues where the option is still available.
6) Sam Reinhart (BUF) - Eichel isn’t the only second overall pick who will be looking to make the jump to the Buffalo Sabres this season. Reinhart got a taste of the NHL last season, but he was limited to an average of 10:21 minutes of ice time per game and was ultimately returned to WHL Kootenay following his nine-game trial with Buffalo. He made the most of his time in the WHL, scoring 19 goals and 65 points in 47 contests and then recorded another three assists in a three-game stint with the AHL’s Rochester Americans. That being said, if Reinhart makes the Sabres at all this season, it will probably be as the team’s third-line center behind Eichel and O’Reilly, so his short-term value has to reflect that.
7) Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL) - It usually takes longer for goaltenders to establish themselves in the NHL than position players, but Vasilevskiy is the exception. After posting a 2.21 GAA and .923 save percentage in 28 KHL games in 2013-14, he made the transition to North America last season and ended up getting a decent chunk of playing time with the Lightning. He finished with a solid 2.36 GAA and .918 save percentage in 16 contests with Tampa Bay. The only reason why he’s not higher on this list is the presence of Ben Bishop as the veteran goalie will likely keep Vasilevskiy in the backup position for now and that limited playing time will likely stand in the way of Vasilevskiy being a Calder Trophy finalist at the end of the season.
8) Artem Panarin (CHI) - Panarin is the most interesting member of this year’s crop of rookies, which is a statement that can’t be taken lightly given that this year features two potential franchise cornerstones in McDavid and Eichel. It’s not that Panarin is a better prospect than them, but his value, especially in the short-term, is harder to pin down. Panarin was never drafted by an NHL club and at the age of 23, he’s looking to make the leap significantly later than the other players on this list. But the fact that he scored 26 goals and 62 points in 54 KHL contests - putting him ahead of teammate Ilya Kovalchuk - can’t be ignored. Panarin might struggle initially as he adjusts to North American hockey and it wouldn’t be shocking if Chicago eases that transition by starting him in the minors. Still, if you’re looking for a guy who can throw a wrench in the narrative that this Calder Trophy battle will be between McDavid and Eichel, then Panarin’s your guy.
9) Dylan Strome (ARI) - While McDavid was the clear cut number one for the 2015 NHL Entry Draft and Eichel was the consensus second pick, there was a fair amount of debate as to who should be taken with the third overall pick. Arizona ultimately with went Strome and in doing so acquired a forward with a very high ceiling. Strome had 45 goals and 129 points in 68 OHL contests last season. Some might see that he’s another product of the Erie Otters and assume that his numbers were inflated by the presence of Connor McDavid, but Strome has shown that he’s a force to be reckon with in his own right. He’s not quite as NHL ready as McDavid though and consequently there’s a fair chance he’ll head back to the juniors for more seasoning, but he’ll be worth keeping an eye on during training camp.
10) Robby Fabbri (STL) - Fabbri has a better shot of making the St. Louis Blues out of training camp than some of the players listed above him. The main reason why he’s listed below them is because his short-term upside is less impressive. If Fabbri does make the Blues next season, it will probably be in a limited capacity in contrast to many of the other players who at least have a decent shot at securing top-six minutes if they make their respective clubs. Fabbri has recorded 70 goals and 138 points in 88 OHL contests over the last two seasons, so clearly he does have offensive potential, but the circumstances don’t appear to be right for him to showcase that in 2015-16. So while we would encourage fantasy owners to keep an eye on him, we aren’t expecting that much yet.
Of course, a top-10 list simply can’t be an exhausted overview of all the rookies who might make significant contributions this season. In 2014-15, there were 28 rookies who recorded at least 20 points and another four that earned at least 10 wins between the pipes. With that in mind, here’s a few other noteworthy rookies that didn’t quite make the list, but are still dark horse contenders for the Calder Trophy.
Noah Hanifin (CAR) - Along with Strome, Hanifin was considered a major contender to be selected with the third overall spot, but he ended up slipping to fifth. The blueliner was a standout with Boston College, scoring five goals and 23 points in 37 contests as a freshman. He’s already decided to leave the NCAA so that he can go pro. He has a ton of potential, but he’s also not a safe bet to make the Hurricanes’ opening game roster. On top of that, defensemen tend to need more time to develop than forwards, so while we expect great things from Hanifin, we’re not convinced that this will be his year.
Darnell Nurse (EDM) - Another defenseman who came just short of making the top-10 list, Nurse was given a two-game stint with Edmonton last season before being returned to the OHL for more seasoning. The 20-year-old is a big part of the Oilers’ plans, but the summer additions of Andrej Sekera and Griffin Reinhart will make it difficult for Nurse to make the team out of training camp.
Shane Prince (OTT) - The Ottawa Senators had two of the top-five rookies in the scoring race last season (Mark Stone and http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NHL/3189/Mike-HoffmanMike Hoffman) and Prince might follow in their footsteps. At the age of 22 years old, he has more seasoning than most of the players that made the top-10 list and is coming off a strong AHL campaign where he scored 28 goals and 65 points in 72 contests. There’s no clear top-six opening for him though, so we’re reluctant to get too optimistic about him at this time.
Kevin Fiala (NAS) - Fiala got his first taste of NHL action with the Nashville Predators last season and could secure a regular spot this season. He’s only 19 years old, but is coming off a campaign where he held his own in both the Swedish League and AHL. The bigger issue is that if he makes the team, it will likely be in a bottom-six role. So while he might have fantasy worth in a couple years, it’s hard to see him putting up the kind of numbers that would justify owning him in standard leagues or make a run at the Calder Trophy.
