The award for longest gameweek (probably) in the history of FPL.com goes to Gameweek 26. After Manchester City’s match with West Ham was postponed until Wednesday, an already lengthy gameweek—thanks to the newly added midwinter break—became a 12-day ordeal, which has thrown us all out of whack.
Luckily, we’re back to normal now, but at least last week’s pick in Héctor Bellerín gave me a solid return with another Arsenal clean sheet. Meanwhile, recent picks like Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Abdoulaye Doucouré and Danny Ings all scored while Joe Gomez and Jack Grealish also posted solid returns.
Without further delay, here are the bargain hits and misses ahead of Gameweek 27. I’m welcoming all suggestions and debates on Twitter (@gastelumEPL)— I would love to include your thoughts here in this column next week and throughout the season. If you don’t want your name mentioned, just let me know; otherwise, I’ll be sure to give your Twitter handle a shout-out.
All of the stats used in this column come straight from the good folks at Fantasy Premier League on a weekly basis. Our friends at FPL.com take the data from a thousand private leagues, all of which consist of eight teams, in order to minimize the impact of data from public leagues where autopick drafting is more prevalent.
Of course, it’s just a sample size, so it’s not hard and fast; but it should give us a good idea of the tendencies of FPL Draft leagues and managers. Remember, the waivers deadline is a full 24 hours before the first game of the week, and the lowest-placed team in your league gets the first pick.
One-week Pick (OWP) - When a regular is suspended for a match, ineligible to face his parent club as a loanee, or his fill-in looks to deputize for only a week while the regular nurses a minor injury, this is where to find some replacements. They should only be looked at when you really need help at a position that week alone, and not looked at as long term plays. Best for salary cap leagues with unlimited transactions, not so much for draft leagues.
Short-term Pick (STP) - When a regular faces a multi-game suspension, an injury layoff lasting 2-5 weeks, international commitment, etc., this is where you look for players that can offer more beyond one week but do have a limited shelf life in most cases. Worth using a waiver claim or spending a bit more of your free agent budget (FAAB) than the One Week Buys. Can be useful in salary-cap format as long as you are comfortable with possibly needing to transfer them out in a few weeks.
Long-term Pick (LTP) - When a regular is either facing a month or more out or has lost his spot seemingly to someone better, these are the players that emerge as potential long-term investments and are therefore the most valuable of the group and worth paying up. Great for any format, but especially valuable in draft leagues with limited waiver claims.
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BARGAINS:
GK – Luksaz Fabianski (West Ham)
We had a bit of a false start with Lukasz Fabianski last month. It’s not that we jumped the gun; it’s West Ham who were desperate to send the keeper into action a little too early following a three-month layoff. But now the Polish international seems to be completely fit after starting the last three games and looks set to resume his role as FPL.com’s biggest surprise in goal. That’s because Fabianski somehow tops the goalkeeping charts despite playing for lousy teams (only once has he recorded more than 10 clean sheets in a season). Yet, with the exception of this year’s injury, he’s a long-term, incredibly reliable keeper and usually a top pick in FPL Draft leagues.
And while this West Ham team might be one of the worst sides he’s played a part of, Fabianski is still fourth in starting keepers in the Premier League in terms of FPL.com points per match averaging more than four points a game. With a colossal matchup against Liverpool next week, I’m expecting a lot of saves from Fabianski while upcoming matches against Southampton, Arsenal and Wolves have a better chance to provide some much-needed clean sheet points. But I wouldn’t expect Fabianski to stick around for long as he’s already taken in 45 percent of FPL Draft leagues, a figure that is only on the rise with every gameweek that passes.
DEF – Conor Coady (Wolves)
Speaking of reliable players, you can’t find a much more consistent option than Wolves defender Conor Coady. In the last two seasons with the upstart side, Coady has yet to miss a minute of Premier League action. Not known whatsoever for his attacking abilities, unlike his teammate Matt Doherty, Coady instead relies on clean sheets to accrue his FPL points and has six this year, including consecutive shutouts in the last two gameweeks. His best performance of the season came in that scoreless draw with Manchester United in Gameweek 25 where he also earned three bonus points for his efforts in leading the Wolves backline.
But what most intrigues me about this pick is a combination of Wolves’ defensive form of late and their upcoming schedule as they look to push for in Europe next season. The race for fourth and fifth is wide open with only five points separating fourth-place Chelsea from eighth-place Wolves, but Wolves clearly have the most favorable schedule of the lot with Norwich, a Son-less and Kane-less Spurs, Brighton, West Ham, Bournemouth and Aston Villa through the beginning of April. In the highly competitive FPL Draft ranks, I’m making sure I have a Wolves defender in my team to provide a differential that could make all the difference.
MID – Harvey Barnes (Leicester City
A month ago, Leicester City was the only team pushing Liverpool in a title race that has since ended thanks to a drop in form for Brendan Rodgers’ side. While Leicester City have won only one league match in their last five (a figure that correlates perfectly with Jamie Vardy not scoring since Gameweek 18), one player has risen to the occasion to keep the Foxes afloat: Harvey Barnes. The 22-year-old has been at the club for a year now and has found his niche as a gifted attacker playing off Vardy’s tenacity and James Maddison’s creativity.
In his last four Premier League matches, Barnes has recorded 29 FPL points thanks to three goals, one assist and two bonus points, highlighted by his goal and assist in a 4-1 win over West Ham in Gameweek 24. His form has seen his ownership in FPL Draft leagues skyrocket upwards of 70 percent, meaning it’s likely he won’t be available most leagues. But I still managed to find him in a couple of my competitive leagues, meaning there is still a chance to add a bona fide long-term pick to your team. If you find a way to add Barnes, you have a weapon that no one saw coming just a year (or even a few months) ago.
MID – Steven Bergwijn (Spurs)
Steven Bergwijn is the latest in a long line of PSV Eindhoven attackers to make the move to the Premier League alongside Ruud van Nistelrooy, Arjen Robben, Memphis Depay and Park Ji-Sung. And while I was hoping to keep him on my watchlist for the near future as I wait to see how he acclimates, circumstance has me making my bet early. That’s because Heung-Min Son has just been ruled out for months and potentially the rest of the season, after suffering a broken arm over the weekend that required surgery. And without Harry Kane for at least another six weeks, José Mourinho will be forced to throw the youth Dutchman into the fire.
Bergwijn has already started his first two games since making the move this winter, scoring in his appearance against Manchester City. The £27 million man has shown plenty of promise in his two starts, but it’s not enough to be able to predict how he turns out in the next couple of months. This pick provides plenty of risk, but compared to the limited attacking options still available at this point in the season, I think it’s a risk worth taking, at least as an STP. Taken in more than 70 percent of FPL Draft leagues, Bergwijn is a quickly fading option who has a chance of providing a differential in midfield if you can get him.
