It’s hard to know what to make of the North London sweep of Sunday’s big matches. Perhaps the only thing that I can say for sure is that Manchester City definitely feel like they’re in the right spot in the table sitting in fourth. Beyond that, the headlines may read that Arsenal are favorites and Spurs seem like they have even more momentum than their local rivals but is that really what we saw yesterday?
To me, Arsenal and Leicester City felt more like it deserved to be a nil-nil draw. The crucial events that led to goals all smacked of poor decisions from the referee. I will stipulate that Nacho Monreal’s challenge on Jamie Vardy that led to Leicester City’s penalty opportunity and subsequently a 1-0 halftime lead was poorly considered. Monreal wasn’t going to win that challenge and all he did was put the referee into a position where he had to make a tough call. That said, the call made was the wrong one. Everyone in the world seems to have a different standard for what should be called a penalty but by any logical interpretation of what should end in a team receiving a 90%+ chance at scoring a goal, that wasn’t a penalty. Monreal didn’t make contact on the initial attempt at a tackle and Vardy basically dragged his leg and forced the contact. The subsequent collision certainly made it look like it was Monreal’s fault but Vardy caused the contact and, if anything, the foul should have been called on him. More reasonably, it should have been waived away as nothing.
If Leicester City’s lead was dubious, Arsenal’s goals were equally so because they can be attributed to the red card shown to Danny Simpson. That red card seemed sketchy at best. At the root of the issue was the first yellow card that Simpson received. To say the least it was a soft yellow. The second one was, without question, a yellow card and the player has to be criticized harshly for grabbing at Olivier Giroud from behind that far from the goal while already on a yellow card. The sending off allowed Arsenal to make an attacking substitution (Theo Walcott for Francis Coquelin) that led to the Gunners’ first goal. Everything that followed thereafter could also be classified under “things that happened because Leicester City were down a man”.
Honestly, the same thing applies to the Spurs win over Manchester City. City never looked like title contenders to me but Spurs, who would have done well to earn a draw away to the fourth place team in the league, were as fortunate as Arsenal in picking up their three points. The penalty that got them their first goal was absurd. The ball clearly hit Raheem Sterling’s back and then deflected to hit his arm that was in what would reasonably be called a “natural position”. Making that call made it look like a referee wanting to make himself a high profile participant in a big match. We can never know for sure exactly what angle the officials have when making a call, what portions of the play are obscured and the like but if it isn’t an obvious penalty then making a call that far from a dangerous area was tantamount to professional malpractice on the part of the referee.
So, where does that leave us? Arsenal and Spurs got the points and that won’t change but If you start with what SHOULD have happened then you have to think that Leicester City are still the favorites with Arsenal and Spurs pretty much neck and neck behind them. As I said above, even given that they probably should have gotten a point out of yesterday, City look like toast to me. They seem to have inherited Arsenal’s “can’t win the big matches against big opponents” disease. The fact that they couldn’t come up with a response after being played off the field against Leicester City last weekend just underscores for me how dependent they are on winning against the dregs of the league.
Just something to keep in mind as we officially enter “down the stretch” time, here are the remaining matches that each contender has coming up with teams in the top half:
Leicester City: @Watford (3/5), Southampton (4/2), West Ham (4/16), @ManUtd (4/30), @Chelsea (5/15) – I’m assuming Chelsea will be in the top half by the final match of the season.
Spurs: @West Ham (3/2), Arsenal (3/5), @Liverpool (4/2), ManUtd (4/9), @Stoke City (4/16), @Chelsea (4/30), Southampton (5/7)
Arsenal: @ManUtd (2/28), @Spurs (3/5), Watford (4/2), @West Ham (4/9), @Manchester City (5/7)
Manchester City: @Liverpool (3/2), ManUtd (3/20), @Chelsea (4/16), Stoke City (4/23), @Southampton (4/30), Arsenal (5/7)
So, just to summarize Leicester City, in addition to having (let me know if you’ve heard this once or twice in the past week) no other playing commitments outside of the Premier League for the balance of the season, are ahead by two points in the standings and have the joint fewest (with Arsenal) matches with teams in the top half with only five. None of those remaining five is with a fellow member of the top four. Spurs have the hardest run-in with seven matches against the top half with four of them on the road.
What this tells me is that Leicester City should still be the favorites. They have been grinding out wins against “the rest” of the Premier League all season while their opponents have been tripped up at unexpected junctures by those same foes. If the Foxes can stay healthy and keep doing the easier part of what they’ve been doing, beat the minnows while well rested, then they should still win.
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The Title Race (Ranked from favorites to most likely to miss out on the Champions League)
Leicester City – Odd substitutions from Ranieri. Taking off Okazaki (a tireless worker seemingly ideal for playing down a man) and Riyad Mahrez (their best attacking threat who has consistently helped them create attacks out of nothing all season) mystified me. Given that results he’s gotten all season it’s hard to second guess the Italian but those seemed questionable to me at the time and the way things played out, with Ranieri subbing Demarai Gray in, it felt like a botched series of subs. On the other hand, how awesome is N’Golo Kante? If Arsenal had a player like him to fill either holding midfield spot, preferably that currently manned by Aaron Ramsey, I’m not sure they’d ever lose. Just saying…
Arsenal – The drama was amazing to experience. Looking back though, the Gunners were very fortunate to even be in a position to make it happen. The red card shouldn’t have been a red card and that leaves us with the nagging doubt that Arsenal would have dropped points if not for that good fortune. It appears that the frequent absences that left the attack scrambling and making due with spare parts is having a second effect, Arsenal are again having to figure out their attacking mojo. The names are more talented but the process is no less pretty to watch than when the same process was happening with lesser names. Since January 17th, Arsenal have scored exactly two goals even strength and those came in a two minute stretch last weekend against a team that is threatened with relegation. The light had better come on here quickly or Spurs and Leicester City are going to leave Arsenal in the dust with Manchester City wondering what could have been.
Tottenham – There is often talk of a “wall” that young players hit late in a season. I don’t buy too much into the “they’ve never been in a title chase” narrative that people have used to devalue Spurs’ chances of winning because, honestly, that applies to the two other teams above Spurs in the hunt as well. Arsenal have won two FA Cups, yes, and some of their players (Cech, Ozil, Mertesacker, and Sanchez) have won significant trophies with other teams including the Premier League title (Cech). What I do take seriously is something more tangible and that is the fact that a lot of Spurs younger players are going to come up against a significant physical barrier as they play more matches this season than many of them have ever likely played in a single season in their careers. While Arsenal players may not have won titles, they are veterans of doing what needs to be done to be ready at the end of the season and their recent history under Arsene Wenger is one where they finish seasons strong. Mauricio Pochettino has done a good job of rotating at least some of his players in recent weeks but players like Harry Kane, Dele Alli, Erik Dier, and Christen Eriksen have played as often as available and their ability to keep things going over 20+ more matches between now and the end of the season will be a real test not to be underestimated.
Manchester City – The popular narrative with City falling out of (or at least significantly back in) the title race is that it was a mistake naming Pep Guardiola officially because it has dampened the motivation of City’s players to play for Manuel Pellegrini. I prefer the narrative that they’re just not that great. Sergio Aguero is arguably the best player in the Premier League. Beyond him, how many City players would you pick in a draft situation if you were building a team from scratch from the rosters of all 20 Premier League clubs? A healthy Kevin De Bruyne? Sure. A healthy Vincent Kompany? Sure again but how often have we seen that? Joe Hart is a very good goalkeeper but certainly doesn’t separate City from Spurs or Arsenal and you could debate who has been better between he and Schmeichel this season. David Silva is the only other name on the roster that you’d even consider and the evidence of his injury record and what we’ve seen on the pitch between injuries leaves me thinking his name is bigger than his game right now. The names may be big but, sorry folks, City on current talent are a fourth place team.
The Second Tier (Ranked from most likely to break into the Champions League to least likely)
Southampton – Is that Ronald Koeman or vintage Tony Pulis managing that group? They just keep grinding out 1-0 wins and nil-nil draws. That’s six clean sheets in a row since Fraser Forster returned. The fact that the Saints still play Leicester City, Spurs and Manchester City before the end of the season means that they could have a significant say on who wins the title in addition to looking more and more like they’re primed to earn a Europa Cup spot for themselves.
Manchester United – Speaking of the potential to play spoiler. Manchester United were likely eliminated from the race for the top four with their loss to Sunderland on Saturday but they play each of the title contenders before the season is out and how they do against each will go a long way toward determining who wins the league. Think Arsenal are keeping their fingers crossed that Mourinho isn’t appointed before the two teams square off in two weeks? How cruel it would be if they had to face Mourinho at United as an additional hurdle in their attempt to win a title. The less said about what went on on the pitch at the Stadium of Light, the better though. Anthony Martial is a pleasure to watch but the rest, yuck. Please stop picking them for nationally televised matches unless the opponent is worth watching.
The Relegation Battle (Ranked from most likely to be relegated to least)
Aston Villa – An exclamation point on their relegation.
Sunderland – The Black Cats are creeping back up toward safety which is usually when the trap door opens but with Newcastle looking hideous and Norwich giving up a two goal lead and having to settle for a point it’s hard to bet against Big Sam and his relegation avoidance than it was as recently as two Fridays ago.
Norwich City – They just have to get two points in situations where they’re up two goals against a quality opponent. They’re currently above the relegation zone on goal difference but their trajectory is certainly one that would lead you to believe that they’re going down with less of a fight than either of the teams from the North East.
Newcastle United – To my mind, that was more of a statement on Newcastle being really bad at defending than it was a statement on Chelsea being “back”. Yes, the Blues played well and got a lot of goals but the Magpies just sort of let it happen…and happen…and happen.
West Brom – Who saw that coming? I’m still not convinced that it’s repeatable but that was a pretty huge three points for the Baggies at Goodison Park. I don’t think they’ll go down. Maybe I’m just projecting what I’d like to see happen on my unscientific standings but I think Bournemouth are better positioned to stay up even four points behind Tony Pulis’ crew.
Bournemouth – That was one that got away from the Cherries. They had a wounded opponent who hadn’t scored in a month and they didn’t step on their throats. That’s not the sort of ruthlessness you want to see from a club that’s going to be in the general vicinity of a relegation battle.
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Newcomer of the Year of the Week
Troy Deeney scored a brace and put his club back in the top half in doing so. Fantasy goodness. Goodness in the standings. What’s not to like?
Season Leaders: 1) Odion Ighalo; 2) Dele Alli 3) Kevin De Bruyne; 4) Etienne Capoue; 5) Yann M’Vila;
Young Player of the Year of the Week
Kevin Wimmer isn’t going to get a lot of headlines but he’s been an excellent deputy since Jan Vertonghen went out injured and he and Toby Alderweireld did an excellent job keeping Sergio Aguero quiet in Spurs’ big win over City. We don’t recognize central defenders too often but that was a performance worthy of recognition on the heels of a bunch of other pretty strong performances.
Season Leaders: 1) Romelu Lukaku; 2) Dele Alli; 3) Anthony Martial; 4) Roberto Firmino; 5) Ross Barkley
Player of the Year of the Week
Pedro is the obvious statistical answer after scoring a brace in Chelsea’s massive win over Newcastle but I was more impressed with both Willian and Diego Costa on the day than I was the former Barcelona man. I’ve probably not given Willian enough love over the course of the season so this seems like a solid time to right that wrong with a Player of the Year of the Week award.
Season Leaders: 1) Riyad Mahrez; 2) Mesut Ozil; 3) Jamie Vardy; 4) Odion Ighalo; 5) tie Sergio Aguero/Romelu Lukaku
Manager of the Year of the Week
Mauricio Pochettino gets this week’s nod for having Spurs in second with a largely untested group of young players, many of whom have been very good despite being English. The popular wisdom is that England doesn’t produce exceptional players and that may be true. What is clearly not true is that “you can’t win with an English core”. Funny that it has taken an Argentine to show the managerial world the way but apparently it is possible and, at least with this group, the high press is the way.
Season Leaders: 1) Claudio Ranieri; 2) Mauricio Pochettino 3) Slaven Bilic; 4) Ronald Koeman; 5) Quique Flores
My Week in Expert Leagues
It’s hardly significant of anything in particular other than the randomness of performances but I actually got a win in the IEFSA Expert League on Fantrax this past weekend. Olivier Giroud picked up an assist and a bunch of shots on target to lead the way. I also got big performances from Cesc Fabregas, Matt Ritchie and Ben Foster. @RotoWireAndrew got zeroes from Jordan Ibe and Ben Davies that helped balance out a goal from Theo Walcott and assists from Jordan Henderson, Erik Lamela and James Ward-Prowse. I’m still decidedly middle-of-the-pack in this league but it’s nice to get the occasional win to balance out what has been a fair amount of losing recently.
While fortune smiled on my in the IEFSA league, the same was not true in the Togga Premier League Fantasy Expert League where I lost to my nemesis @FantasyGaffer. I call him my nemesis because I’ve been outperforming him overall in both Togga expert leagues we are in together but I can’t seem to do well against him head-to-head. We both left a lot of points on the bench so I’m not going to blame the loss on that. Ultimately, it was that my big players just didn’t do that much on the weekend. Christian Fuchs and Riyad Mahrez, both among the best at their positions over the course of the season, were both pretty useless. Benik Afobe and Junior Stanislas, who have both produced points win, lose or draw for Bournemouth most weeks, also laid eggs. I got great production from Wahbi Khazri and solid stuff from Wes Hoolahan, Odion Ighalo and Ashley Williams but it wasn’t nearly enough. Gaffer saw my Khazri and topped it with Dimitri Payet. He got big matches from Fabregas, Firmino, and Walters and, I think just to spite me, got a strong outing from one of my favorites, Patrick Van Aanholt.
As always, when I need a fantasy pick-me-up, the Togga Premier League Writers League is there to deliver for me. It certainly wasn’t my biggest weekend in the league but I got big matches from Mesut Ozil, Jamie Vardy, Nacho Monreal, and Marc Albrighton. I definitely left some points on the bench but this time it was OK because my opponent was one of the weaker teams in the league and I won handily even with van Aanholt and others on the bench.
Perfect XI – It was a rather “meh” week for me in Perfect XI. Ozil, Christen Eriksen, Dimitri Payet, Diego Costa and Seamus Coleman did the heavy lifting for my team but ther was a lot of under-performing as well. We’ll call this one average and leave it at that.
PL.com – And back up the table we go, at least a little bit. I’ve been yo-yo-ing between 30,000ish and the 40,000s seemingly every other weekend. This weekend we’re back in the high 30,000s (32,567th to be specific). Danny Rose, Mesut Ozil, Dimitri Payet, Jamie Vardy and Harry Kane did the work for my team while Mahrez, Alli, Monreal, Bellerin, De Gea and Aguero (as captain) all disappointed. The next match week (2/27-2/28) is a big one because City, Liverpool, Newcastle and Everton are all out of action while City and Liverpool contest the League Cup. Those matches have yet to be rescheduled but it’s the first instance where the schedule is dictating potentially significant line-up reshuffling.
Players I’m looking at acquiring: Do we give Daniel Sturridge another chance? He’s off for Match Week 27 so no need to pick him up in PL.com or Perfect XI just yet (unless you’re looking for a price bump in PL.com). Otherwise, the questions are about who to pick up to replace your City/Liverpool/Everton stars for Week 27 in draft/auction-style leagues. Hopefully, you have a solid bench but, if not, then guys like Etienne Capoue, Yann M’Vila, and Danny Drinkwater (if he avoids a retroactive suspension for his nasty tackle on Aaron Ramsey on Sunday) are the solid options. The higher variance options are players like Andros Townsend who scored and has looked good when it comes to secondary statistics since coming over from Spurs. At forward, Emmanuel Adebayor got Palace’s first goal from a forward from open play this season and that’s not nothing while Alberto Paloschi has looked solid despite not racking up any “counting statistics” yet – they look like they could be coming.
Players I’m thinking about ditching: Anyone who picked up Kieran Trippier as anything other than a handcuff for Kyle Walker (or Ben Davies as anything other than a handcuff for Danny Rose) should reconsider their strategies. All four Spurs outside backs can produce on their day and Mauricio Pochettino has been good about rotating his starters in recent weeks but even huge matches from the subs don’t seem to indicate anything broader about the starters chances of staying starters. Likewise, the City outside backs are a bit of a crapshoot at this point as well. City aren’t keeping clean sheets and Manuel Pellegrini has been mixing and matching between Clichy, Kolarov, Sagna and Zabaleta. Not a group you want to be depending on.
Random Closing Thoughts
My Second Club – They’re still my favorites given schedule and their slight lead.
This Week’s Good Points: I need an intern (which is my polite way of saying that I haven’t gone back and accounted for all of the midweek matches yet)
The Good Points Table: Bournemouth 14; Norwich City 12; West Ham United 10; Stoke City 10; Newcastle 8; Watford 7; Swansea City 7; Everton 6; Crystal Palace 6; West Brom 5; Tottenham 4; Aston Villa 3; Liverpool 3; Southampton 3; Manchester City 2; Sunderland 1;
This Week’s Bad Points: See above
The Bad Points Table: Chelsea 19; Manchester United 16; Manchester City 14; Liverpool 14; Arsenal 11; Swansea 8; Southampton 8; Tottenham 7; West Brom 6; West Ham 5; Everton 4; Sunderland 3; Crystal Palace 2; Newcastle 2.
My Favorite Things – Anthony Martial’s excellence amid the disaster at Old Trafford…Troy Deeney doing the hard work…Southampton keeping an amazing clean sheet streak going…Petr Cech’s save from Jamie Vardy…Kasper Schmeichel’s save from Olivier Giroud…Giroud’s cushioned header for Walcott…Stoke City shooting from distance on the south coast…Liverpool and Chelsea taking advantage of hideous opposition…Kelechi Iheanacho’s rocket for City’s lone goal.
My Least Favorite Things – There were lots of things to point out here with poor refereeing chief among them but I’m going to call out the Premier League for making Saturday pretty close to irrelevant this week. It wasn’t just how high the profile of the big matches on Sunday were but the fact that all of the remaining matches featured teams expected to be bad against teams at least expected to be pretty good. There were two upsets (Sunderland over United and West Brom over Everton) but there was precious little entertainment on offer unless you knew those two upsets were coming. Not even a relegation six-pointer on offer on Saturday to get viewers focused on something specific rather than just “hey, it’s the Premier League, anything could happen”.
What did we find out? It’s going to be a hell of a run-in with the distance between first and third getting closer. The top four are pretty much set unless City crater and/or United go on a run that not even the most optimistic supporter sees coming. Crystal Palace, so recently riding high, at least have to be sleeping a little uneasily as they draw even with West Brom at the fringes of the relegation race. They really only need a couple of wins and a couple of draws from their final twelve fixtures to secure safety but things have gone south in a big way since December and the bigger concern is how to rebound heading into next season. The margins are so thin between about 14th and the Europa Cup spots and Palace have gone to being on the right side of those thin margins to being very much on the wrong side.
What’s Next? We only have eight matches in Match Week 27 with the Liverpool Derby and Newcastle vs. Manchester City postponed due to the League Cup Final. The big match on Saturday features two resurgent clubs as Southampton host Chelsea at St. Mary’s. Leicester City get what should be an easy task as they look to rebound against Norwich City at the King Power Stadium. Sunday is highlighted by one of the best rivalries of the Premier League era as third place Arsenal travel to Old Trafford in hopes of keeping pace with Leicester City and Spurs who both have what appear to be easier tasks in Week 27.
