Ryne

Nelson

The avalanche against Nelson occurred in the fourth inning when the Marlins put up six runs – all scoring with two outs – on two home runs, three other singles, and a hit batsmen. Truthfully, he was fortunate to have gotten through the first three innings barely missing any bats and having allowed eight hard-hit balls on just 10 total balls in play. Nelson will take a 5.19 ERA and 57 to 22 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 1/3 innings into a two-start week against the Angels and Twins.

Nelson gave up four homers to the Mariners last time out but none to the mighty Dodgers tonight. It’s the fourth time in five starts that he’s completed seven innings and allowed no more than three runs, and he has a strong 2.89 ERA since the beginning of May. It’s hard to recommend him in mixed leagues when he’s turned into an extreme flyball pitcher with a below average strikeout rate, but the Diamondbacks should enjoy this for however long it lasts. He’ll make his next start against the Marlins in Miami.

The earned runs all came on solo homers, with Luke Raley and Dominic Canzone taking him deep in the second and Colt Emerson and Julio Rodríguez following with blasts an inning later. Nelson has now given up 15 homers in 65 1/3 innings this season after allowing 17 in 150 2/3 innings in 2024 and 17 in 154 innings last year. He came into the night on a streak of four straight quality starts, so he doesn’t have to worry about his rotation spot right now. However, he needs to improve on either his 19 percent strikeout rate or his 31 percent groundball rate in order to be useful going forward.

Nelson allowed six hits and three walks while striking out three, lowering his ERA to 4.65. He had a brutal stretch in April, allowing 14 earned runs over two starts covering 5 1/3 innings. He now has a 2.36 ERA in May, rewarding fantasy managers who have held throughout. Homers are an issue for him given his lack of grounders, but he’ll look to finish the month on a high note when he visits Seattle for his next scheduled start.

Nelson tossed a scoreless first inning, then was hit hard in the second. He surrendered back-to-back solo homers to Rafael Devers and Willy Adames before a single and a double brought in a third run. Nelson then settled in to keep the Giants off the board for five more frames, ending his day after seven at 88 pitches. The 28-year-old right-hander will take a 5.19 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and a 46/16 K/BB ratio across 52 innings into a start against the Rockies in Arizona on Sunday.

Nelson carried a shutout into the fifth inning before serving up a three-run homer to Jake Burger, which was his lone mistake in this one, and nearly was enough to saddle him with the loss. He didn’t hand out a free pass and allowed just four hits over seven strong frames. He’ll face the Giants in his next start on Tuesday.

Nelson leaned on his trusted fastball to put together his best start of the season here. Any good game against the Mets’ anemic offense should be taken with a grain of salt, but he completed six innings for the first time all year and did so blowing fastball after fastball by them. That pitch accounted for six of his nine total whiffs and he threw them nearly 60% of the time. It had a 70% strike rate and the Mets only managed three hard-hit balls against it. Besides a solo home run from Mark Vientos, they practically never made Nelson sweat. Nelson has now stacked back-to-back good games after his two-start disaster from a few weeks ago and will try to keep the momentum rolling in his next scheduled start on the road against the Rangers.

Nelson tossed a clean first inning, then surrendered a solo homer to Ian Happ to start the second. He then worked through a bases-loaded jam in the third. Nelson would pitch into the sixth, leaving with one runner on and two outs at 84 pitches. He struck out four. The one-run outing ends a rough stretch for Nelson, who surrendered 14 runs over his last two starts. The 28-year-old right-hander will take a 6.61 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and a 28/13 K/BB ratio across 31 1/3 innings into a start against the Mets in Arizona on Friday.

Nelson averaged 97.1 mph with his fastball today, up 1.2 mph from his season average, but in the thin air of Mexico City, he gave up two homers with a total of three men on base. This leaves him with a 7.71 ERA after six starts, which could put his rotation spot in jeopardy. Still, ERA estimators think he’s been unlucky, and it’s hard to see Brandon Pfaadt as a better bet. He should face the Cubs next weekend.

Well, that’s not the goal. Nelson gave up hits to the first seven hitters he faced, and then issued a walk. After getting his only out, he gave up a two-run double, and that was it. Nelson had pitched solidly in his first few outings of the year, but it’s gonna take awhile to erase this one. His 3.54 ERA ballooned to 6.97 in the process. Assuming everything is ok, he’ll face the Padres next week.