Ryne

Nelson

Nelson tossed a clean first inning, then surrendered a solo homer to Ian Happ to start the second. He then worked through a bases-loaded jam in the third. Nelson would pitch into the sixth, leaving with one runner on and two outs at 84 pitches. He struck out four. The one-run outing ends a rough stretch for Nelson, who surrendered 14 runs over his last two starts. The 28-year-old right-hander will take a 6.61 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and a 28/13 K/BB ratio across 31 1/3 innings into a start against the Mets in Arizona on Friday.

Nelson averaged 97.1 mph with his fastball today, up 1.2 mph from his season average, but in the thin air of Mexico City, he gave up two homers with a total of three men on base. This leaves him with a 7.71 ERA after six starts, which could put his rotation spot in jeopardy. Still, ERA estimators think he’s been unlucky, and it’s hard to see Brandon Pfaadt as a better bet. He should face the Cubs next weekend.

Well, that’s not the goal. Nelson gave up hits to the first seven hitters he faced, and then issued a walk. After getting his only out, he gave up a two-run double, and that was it. Nelson had pitched solidly in his first few outings of the year, but it’s gonna take awhile to erase this one. His 3.54 ERA ballooned to 6.97 in the process. Assuming everything is ok, he’ll face the Padres next week.

Nelson allowed just one unearned run through five and departed with a 7-1 lead after a Pete Alonso double and a strikeout of Samuel Basallo to start the sixth. Alas, everything went wrong after he left, with the Orioles scoring eight unanswered runs. Nelson is 1-1 with a 3.54 ERA through four starts, and there shouldn’t be any doubt about his rotation status with Merrill Kelly’s return set to cost someone (probably Brandon Pfaadt) a spot. He’ll likely face the Jays on Sunday.

Nelson tore through the Mets over the first few innings of this one. He didn’t allow a hit or walk over the first three innings and the only reason someone reached scoring position before the sixth was due to an error. He leaned on his electric fastball even more than usual in this one, throwing it 76% of the time. Part of the reason for that could have been intense wind in Citi Field that may have had a hand in giving that pitch an extra two inches of induced vertical break. That was all he needed to put the Mets away though. He’s lined up for a two-start week against the Orioles and Blue Jays next.

The right-hander struck out three batters on the night while also issuing three free passes. He served up a solo homer to Matt Olson in the first inning and another to Dominic Smith in the third. He then allowed five unearned runs while being chased in the fifth after an error by Nolan Arenado extended the inning. Nelson generated nine swings and misses on 80 pitches on the night, registering a CSW of 23 percent. He’ll look to bounce back as he carries a 5.79 ERA and 1.18 WHIP into Wednesday’s matchup against the Mets in New York.

The 28-year-old right-hander also issued three free passes on the night while striking out four. The problem, is that while Nelson allowed only two hits in the ballgame, both of them left the yard — a solo shot by Alex Freeland and a three-run blast by Mookie Betts in the third inning. He got 11 whiffs on 83 pitches on the night, posting an underwhelming CSW of 25 percent. He gets a pass since it was such a difficult matchup, but fantasy managers are going to need to see more when he toes the slab against the Braves his next time out at home on Thursday.

Nelson scattered four hits, and he didn’t issue a walk. The 28-year-old will start the second game of the season for Arizona, and while he isn’t anywhere close to an elite fantasy option, he’s good enough for roster consideration in the overwhelming majority of eligible formats. You can do a lot worse than Nelson.

Nelson will follow Opening Day starter Zac Gallen with Eduardo Rodriguez closing out a three-game series against the Dodgers. It’ll be Michael Soroka and Brandon Pfaadt kicking off their ensuing series against the Tigers. Lovullo confirmed that veteran Merrill Kelly (back) will open the season on the injured list but could return at some point in early April.

One of the more consistently underrated starters in the fantasy landscape, Nelson holds an impressive 16/2 K/BB ratio across 12 innings of work this spring. The unheralded 28-year-old righty appears locked into Arizona’s season-opening rotation and should be a top 60-70 range starter in fantasy drafts this spring.