Atlanta Supercross by the numbers: Eli Tomac slightly favored over Cooper Webb
Eli Tomac is widely considered the master of the speedways in the Monster Energy Supercross Series after winning his record-extending seventh Daytona race in March, and his Atlanta Supercross numbers give him a slight advantage this week. Combining the final five venues tells a different story, however.
With five rounds remaining, it’s too soon to say with certainty this is a two-rider battle, but unless Tomac and Webb stumble Chase Sexton is going to be hard pressed to catch them. That means all eyes are on the championship leaders for now. in the remaining venues, Tomac and Webb each have seven wins on those tracks and led in 10 main events. Tomac holds the advantage in podium finishes with 20 to Webb’s 15, but perhaps a more predictive number is Webb’s average finish of 3.7 compared to Tomac’s 4.7.
The difference between finishing first and second in Supercross points is three, so Webb certainly controls his fate. But with Tomac holding such a distinct advantage of seven wins to Webb’s two, the challenger is going to have to find the top box on at least a couple of occasions and those wins could prove to be critical.
Entering last week’s race in Glendale, Webb had a slight edge in the 2023 average finish. Through 11 rounds, Webb boasted a 2.4 to Tomac’s 2.8 but it has been the differential between first and second that has made the difference. With Tomac’s win in Glendale, the average finish differential has fallen to 0.1. Missing the overall podium last week not only cost Webb seven points, it allowed Tomac to match him in season podiums. To this point of the season, both riders now have nine appearances on the box.
Tomac has the wins, but Webb has consistency and is the only rider to sweep the top five so far this season.
Webb will take some consolation in the fact that Atlanta is Tomac’s worst location with a 6.7 average finish, but that includes his stadium results. Since moving to the speedway, Tomac has three podiums and a fifth compared to two podiums, a fourth and a sixth for Webb.
Third in the points, Sexton also has nine podiums this season but it has been well documented that his Achilles Heel has been mistakes that cost him 35 points in the last several rounds. A 10th-place finish in Indianapolis and a seven-point penalty at Detroit will likely keep him out of contention as the season winds down.
Atlanta Motor Speedway is still new on the circuit with the first race there coming in 2021 as Supercross raced in three-race residencies to restrict travel during the COVID-19 pandemic. In those three races plus last year, no one has stood on the top step more than once. Tomac and Webb each won one of the three races of 2021. Jason Anderson won there last year.
In the 250 class, this was an East/West Showdown last year with Hunter Lawrence beating Christian Craig, giving the West division bragging rights. They beat out Jett Lawrence in third, which is a tidbit to hang onto ahead of next week’s first 2023 Showdown in East Rutherford.
In addition to his Atlanta win, Lawrence has another podium in four starts.
Nate Thrasher has finished second to Lawrence three times in 2023, (at Tampa, Indianapolis and Detroit), but he has two wins at Atlanta. Both of those came after advancing from Last Chance Qualifier.
Last Five Atlanta Winners
2022: Jason Anderson
2021.3: Cooper Webb
2021.2: Ken Roczen
2021.1: Eli Tomac
2020: Ken Roczen (Mercedes Benz Stadium)
2022: Hunter Lawrence
2021.3: Nate Thrasher
2021.2: Justin Cooper
2021.1: Nate Thrasher
2020: Chase Sexton (Mercedes Benz Stadium)
By the Numbers
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