After two weeks of short track racing, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Texas Motor Speedway for the second 1.5-mile intermediate race of the year this Sunday (3:30 p.m. ET on FOX). This track has seen seven different winners in the last seven races and will be run in the Spring for the first time since 2019.
William Byron scored his third win of the young season in a 1-2-3 finish for Hendrick Motorsports at Martinsville and opens at +700 this weekend. He won at Texas a year ago and owns the best average finish in the Cup Series over the last three at this track. Kyle Larson (+400), Tyler Reddick (+600) and Denny Hamlin (+650) are priced shorter than Byron this weekend despite his history at this track and his wins this season.
The No. 24 team continues to show little weakness in 2024, and he is my pick of the four favorites to win this weekend. I would monitor Byron’s price throughout the week as he has qualified outside of the Top 10 in the last two Texas races, so there is a chance his odds will get a bit more favorable.
Here is who else I am eyeing pre-practice and qualifying for the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400. As always, shop around for your best price (odds as of Wednesday, April 10).
Christopher Bell +1200
Dating back to last year, Bell has been a consistent front runner on 1.5-mile intermediate tracks. He won at Homestead-Miami and scored Top-Five finishes in both Las Vegas races in 2023. At Texas, he has finished inside the Top Five in three of the last four, and I view Bell as the third best Toyota behind Hamlin and Reddick this weekend.
He blew a tire less than 10 laps in at Vegas earlier this year, but the consistency shown by Bell on this type of track when finishing the race makes him a strong bet to contend at Texas.
Ross Chastain +1600
Chastain has been quiet over the last month with just a single Top 10 in the last four races. Texas, however, presents a great opportunity for him to return to form after finishing as the runner-up here in 2023. He owns the fifth-best average running position in the last two Texas trips and also finished fourth at Las Vegas earlier this year.
Trackhouse Racing is the only team to reach victory lane this year not named Hendrick Motorsports or Joe Gibbs Racing. This is a great price for a driver who can go toe-to-toe with the heavy hitters.
Brad Keselowski Top 10 +100
I think there are a few ways to bet Keselowski this weekend, but my favorite bet currently is for the No. 6 to finish inside of the Top 10, something he has done in five consecutive Texas races. He has qualified inside of the Top Three in the last two trips to Texas and owns the fourth-best average running position in those as well. Finishing as the Top Ford (+550) in this race is the other market I would be interested in for Keselowski, but I think RFK Racing as a whole has a solid showing in the Lone Star State.
William Byron/Denny Hamlin to both finish Top Five +230
We hit this market last week with both Kyle Larson and Ryan Blaney finishing in the Top Five at Martinsville, so I am going back to Caesar’s Sportsbook and taking Byron and Denny Hamlin to do the same at Texas.
These are arguably the two best drivers in the Cup Series right now, and Hamlin is a three-time Texas winner who continues to show up week in and week out. I obviously like Byron to win, and Hamlin is a favorite for a reason, so rather than betting both individually to score a Top-Five finish, you are getting additional value when pairing the two together.
Enjoy the racing at Texas.