Now things get real.
The NBA playoffs are here and make no mistake: Oklahoma City is the team to beat. The Thunder are the reigning champions and had the best record in the NBA despite a rash of injuries, including their second-best player from last season missing the majority of the season.
That doesn’t mean they are invincible. San Antonio, Denver, Boston and others would have a shot, but they all have to make it to face OKC first. This is going to be a long and wild playoffs.
Here are my predictions for the 2026 NBA Playoffs.
First Round
Eastern Conference
• Detroit beats Orlando 4-1
• Boston beats Philadelphia 4-1
• New York beats Atlanta 4-3
• Cleveland beats Toronto 4-2
Atlanta is going to put a scare into New York (and an upset is not out of the question). This Hawks team had the third-best net rating in the league over the last two months, is fearless, has an All-NBA talent in Jalen Johnson, plus they have Nickeil Alexander-Walker and CJ McCollum giving them plenty of scoring, and Dyson Daniels locking guys down. The Knicks’ bench and experience get them over the hump, but barely. Aside from that, Cleveland should look improved with its shrunken playoff rotation, and Boston and Detroit are just better than their opponents.
Western Conference
• Oklahoma City beats Phoenix 4-1
• San Antonio beats Portland 4-1
• Denver beats Minnesota 4-2
• Houston beats Los Angeles Lakers 4-2
The Suns played the Thunder tough in the regular season, but this isn’t the regular season. Portland has interesting young athletes, San Antonio has better ones. The Lakers would have won this series if healthy, but at least Kevin Durant vs. LeBron James is always entertaining.
Denver vs. Minnesota is the best first-round series in either conference — a real rivalry between teams that match up well. Both teams are big, talented and know how to level up in the playoffs. I will take the consistency of Denver — and the way Nikola Jokic enjoys putting up numbers on Rudy Gobert.
Conference Semi-Finals
Eastern Conference
• Cleveland beats Detroit 4-2
• Boston beats New York 4-2
Do I feel comfortable picking a James Harden-led team to win a big playoff series? No. Not even close. However, styles make fights, and Detroit wants a low-scoring series where it gets its buckets in the paint, but Cleveland is waiting with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen to shut that down. If the Pistons win this series, it will be because Daniss Jenkins and Duncan Robinson stepped up big time. The Knicks vs. Celtics will be fun, but the Celtics have been the better team of late and will send the Knicks and their owner into a tailspin this offseason.
Western Conference
• Oklahoma City beats Houston 4-1
• Denver beats San Antonio 4-3
Denver vs. San Antonio is a coin flip, and maybe the experience factor does not matter — the Spurs don’t believe it does — but if forced to choose, I will bet on it and on the Nuggets’ desperation for the win. That all depends on Aaron Gordon’s hamstrings holding up, by the way. In the other West series, the Rockets are a flawed team and the Thunder will expose that.
Eastern Conference Finals
• Boston beats Cleveland 4-1
Cleveland has the talent to make this a tight seven-game series, but this is where I will no longer trust Harden and a Donovan Mitchell-led team to go any further. Especially against a team that has been there and done that.
Western Conference Finals
• Oklahoma City beats Denver 4-3
This is the real NBA Finals, and the Nuggets have a chance at the upset here (as will the Spurs if they outlast the Nuggets in the second round). That said, in the end, I will trust the depth and versatility of the defending champions, not to mention Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the clutch to get it done.
2026 NBA Finals
• Oklahoma City beats Boston 4-1
Boston is a very good team about to step into a bad matchup. Oklahoma City has more depth and versatility, more athleticism, and it has more high-level defenders to impede Boston’s stars than any team in the league. OKC has one ring and is now playing for a legacy, and it knows that. Expect the Thunder to win this far more comfortably than they did in the Finals a year ago.
