Now that the NFL Schedule has been released, it is all about gathering information that can help us make an informed wager. Lets look at some pertinent stats for each team and find out where a team has an advantage as well as where it finds itself behind the eight ball.
In an effort to make the info digestible, we have listed each team by division and in the order they finished the 2023 season followed by their respective strength of schedule, total miles traveled, rest disparity, and to take it a step further, their games with a rest advantage vs. a rest disadvantage. Finally, we have listed each team’s expected win total at DraftKings.
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No question we will offer further insights and suggest a sweat or two along the way, but today we start the process by simply offering valuable data.
NFC SOUTH
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Strength of Schedule: .478
Expected Miles Traveled: 15,303 (12 time zones)
Rest Disparity: -7 days (-6 last year)
No. of Games with a Rest Advantage: 1
No. of Games with a Rest Disadvantage: 3
O/U Win Total: 8.5 (9-8 last year)
New Orleans Saints
Strength of Schedule: .453
Expected Miles Traveled: 13,084 (14 time zones)
Rest Disparity: -10 days (+4 last year)
No. of Games with a Rest Advantage: 3
No. of Games with a Rest Disadvantage: 5
O/U Win Total: 7.5 (9-8 last year)
Atlanta Falcons
Strength of Schedule: .453
Expected Miles Traveled: 12,416 (14 time zones)
Rest Disparity: +5 days (-12 last year)
No. of Games with a Rest Advantage: 3
No. of Games with a Rest Disadvantage: 4
O/U Win Total: 10.5 (7-10 last year)
Carolina Panthers
Strength of Schedule: .467
Expected Miles Traveled: 21,288 (26 time zones)
Rest Disparity: +3 days (-1 last year)
No. of Games with a Rest Advantage: 3
No. of Games with a Rest Disadvantage: 2
O/U Win Total: 4.5 (2-15 last year)
Read More: Sunday Night Football Opens with the Lions hosting the Rams
NFC WEST
San Francisco 49ers
Strength of Schedule: .505
Expected Miles Traveled: 4,575 (28 time zones)
Rest Disparity: -21 days (-20 last year)
No. of Games with a Rest Advantage: 2
No. of Games with a Rest Disadvantage: 8
O/U Win Total: 11.5 (12-5 last year)
Los Angeles Rams
Strength of Schedule: .505
Expected Miles Traveled: 24,263 (26 time zones)
Rest Disparity: -1 day (-17 last year)
No. of Games with a Rest Advantage: 3
No. of Games with a Rest Disadvantage: 4
O/U Win Total: 8.5 (10-6 last year)
Seattle Seahawks
Strength of Schedule: .488
Expected Miles Traveled: 25,797 (28 time zones)
Rest Disparity: -13 days (-4 last year)
No. of Games with a Rest Advantage: 4
No. of Games with a Rest Disadvantage: 6
O/U Win Total: 7.5 (9-8 last year)
Arizona Cardinals
Strength of Schedule: .488
Expected Miles Traveled: 21,064 (26 time zones)
Rest Disparity: -2 days (+5 last year)
No. of Games with a Rest Advantage: 3
No. of Games with a Rest Disadvantage: 3
O/U Win Total: 6.5 (4-13)
NFC NORTH
Detroit Lions
Strength of Schedule: .509
Expected Miles Traveled: 14,328 (22 time zones)
Rest Disparity: -1 day (+1 last year)
No. of Games with a Rest Advantage: 3
No. of Games with a Rest Disadvantage: 3
O/U Win Total: 10.5 (12-5 last year)
Green Bay Packers
Strength of Schedule: .526
Expected Miles Traveled: 22,209 (16 time zones)
Rest Disparity: +8 days (0 last year)
No. of Games with a Rest Advantage: 3
No. of Games with a Rest Disadvantage: 2
O/U Win Total: 10.5 (9-8 last year)
Minnesota Vikings
Strength of Schedule: .502
Expected Miles Traveled: 19,030 (26 time zones)
Rest Disparity: +12 days (-2 last year)
No. of Games with a Rest Advantage: 5
No. of Games with a Rest Disadvantage: 1
O/U Win Total: 6.5 (7-10 last year)
Chicago Bears
Strength of Schedule: .467
Expected Miles Traveled: 19,558 (26 time zones)
Rest Disparity: +5 days (+12 last year)
No. of Games with a Rest Advantage: 3
No. of Games with a Rest Disadvantage: 2
O/U Win Total: 8.5 (7-10 last year)
Bet the Edge is your source for all things NFL Betting. Get all of Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick’s insight weekdays at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your podcasts.
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys
Strength of Schedule: .505
Expected Miles Traveled: 18,293 (18 time zones)
Rest Disparity: +2 days (+1 last year)
No. of Games with a Rest Advantage: 3
No. of Games with a Rest Disadvantage: 3
O/U Win Total: 10.5 (12-5 last year)
Philadelphia Eagles
Strength of Schedule: .491
Expected Miles Traveled: 22,756 (12 time zones)
Rest Disparity: +12 days (-6 last year)
No. of Games with a Rest Advantage: 4
No. of Games with a Rest Disadvantage: 1
O/U Win Total: 10.5 (11-6 last year)
New York Giants
Strength of Schedule: .516
Expected Miles Traveled: 19,295 (20 time zones)
Rest Disparity: 0 days (-9 last year)
No. of Games with a Rest Advantage: 3
No. of Games with a Rest Disadvantage: 2
O/U Win Total: 6.5 (6-11 last year)
Washington Commanders
Strength of Schedule: .502
Expected Miles Traveled: 10,550 (18 time zones)
Rest Disparity: -2 days (+12 last year)
No. of Games with a Rest Advantage: 3
No. of Games with a Rest Disadvantage: 3
O/U Win Total: 7.5 (4-13 last year)
Watch more: Matthew Berry’s Wide Receiver Rankings
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills
Strength of Schedule: .516
Expected Miles Traveled: 16,710 (14 time zones)
Rest Disparity: +5 days (0 last year)
No. of Games with a Rest Advantage: 2
No. of Games with a Rest Disadvantage: 3
O/U Win Total: 10.5 (11-6 last year)
Miami Dolphins
Strength of Schedule: .488
Expected Miles Traveled: 25,869 (16 time zones)
Rest Disparity: -8 days (+7 last year)
No. of Games with a Rest Advantage: 4
No. of Games with a Rest Disadvantage: 5
O/U Win Total: 10.5 (11-6 last year)
New York Jets
Strength of Schedule: .505
Expected Miles Traveled: 22,397 (24 time zones)
Rest Disparity: +5 days (+12 last year)
No. of Games with a Rest Advantage: 3
No. of Games with a Rest Disadvantage: 4
O/U Win Total: 9.5 (7-10 last year)
New England Patriots
Strength of Schedule: .512
Expected Miles Traveled: 25,071 (26 time zones)
Rest Disparity: +12 days (+6 last year)
No. of Games with a Rest Advantage: 4
No. of Games with a Rest Disadvantage: 0
O/U Win Total: 4.5 (4-13 last year)
Watch More: Fantasy Football Happy Hour Tight End Rankings
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens
Strength of Schedule: .536
Expected Miles Traveled: 15,424 (12 time zones)
Rest Disparity: +16 days (+9 last year)
No. of Games with a Rest Advantage: 5
No. of Games with a Rest Disadvantage: 2
O/U Win Total: 11.5 (13-4 last year)
Cleveland Browns
Strength of Schedule: .547
Expected Miles Traveled: 13,998 (12 time zones)
Rest Disparity: +2 days (+10 last year)
No. of Games with a Rest Advantage: 4
No. of Games with a Rest Disadvantage: 3
O/U Win Total: 8.5 (11-6 last year)
There is no offseason. Bet the Edge is your source for the day in sports betting. Get all of Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick’s insight weekdays at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your podcasts.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Strength of Schedule: .533
Expected Miles Traveled: 12,047 (10 time zones)
Rest Disparity: +2 days (+7 last year)
No. of Games with a Rest Advantage: 4
No. of Games with a Rest Disadvantage: 3
O/U Win Total: 7.5 (10-7 last year)
Cincinnati Bengals
Strength of Schedule: .502
Expected Miles Traveled: 10,611 (12 time zones)
Rest Disparity: -2 days (-1 last year)
No. of Games with a Rest Advantage: 3
No. of Games with a Rest Disadvantage: 5
O/U Win Total: 10.5 (9-8 last year)
Watch more: How the NFL Schedule release affects Win Totals
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans
Strength of Schedule: .526
Expected Miles Traveled: 18,052 (8 time zones)
Rest Disparity: +7 days (-2 last year)
No. of Games with a Rest Advantage: 4
No. of Games with a Rest Disadvantage: 2
O/U Win Total: 9.5 (10-7 last year)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Strength of Schedule: .512
Expected Miles Traveled: 22,075 (20 time zones)
Rest Disparity: +4 days (-1 last year)
No. of Games with a Rest Advantage: 2
No. of Games with a Rest Disadvantage: 2
O/U Win Total: 8.5 (9-8 last year)
Indianapolis Colts
Strength of Schedule: .491
Expected Miles Traveled: 11,497 (12 time zones)
Rest Disparity: -17 days (+4 last year)
No. of Games with a Rest Advantage: 1
No. of Games with a Rest Disadvantage: 4
O/U Win Total: 8.5 (9-8 last year)
Tennessee Titans
Strength of Schedule: .491
Expected Miles Traveled: 13,311 (16 time zones)
Rest Disparity: +6 days (+11 last year)
No. of Games with a Rest Advantage: 5
No. of Games with a Rest Disadvantage: 1
O/U Win Total: 5.5 (6-11 last year)
Read more: Chiefs host the Raiders on Black Friday
AFC WEST
Kansas City Chiefs
Strength of Schedule: .502
Expected Miles Traveled: 16,719 (24 time zones)
Rest Disparity: +5 days (-13 last year)
No. of Games with a Rest Advantage: 5
No. of Games with a Rest Disadvantage: 2
O/U Win Total: 11.5 (11-6 last year)
Las Vegas Raiders
Strength of Schedule: .512
Expected Miles Traveled: 23,345 (34 time zones)
Rest Disparity: 0 days (-4 last year)
No. of Games with a Rest Advantage: 3
No. of Games with a Rest Disadvantage: 3
O/U Win Total: 6.5 (8-9 last year)
Denver Broncos
Strength of Schedule: .495
Expected Miles Traveled: 19,670 (24 time zones)
Rest Disparity: -17 days (+3 last year)
No. of Games with a Rest Advantage: 2
No. of Games with a Rest Disadvantage: 6
O/U Win Total: 5.5 (8-9 last year)
Los Angeles Chargers
Strength of Schedule: .478
Expected Miles Traveled: 26,803 (36 time zones)
Rest Disparity: -10 days (-6 last year)
No. of Games with a Rest Advantage: 1
No. of Games with a Rest Disadvantage: 4
O/U Win Total: 8.5 (5-12 last year)
Our initial takeaway is that the 49ers (+600 to win the Super Bowl) have the decked stacked against them. Not only do they have a three-week rest disadvantage but that rest disadvantage spills into eight of their games.
Meanwhile, the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs (+550 to win the Super Bowl) won last year with a slight rest disadvantage but will enjoy a rest advantage in five games this season.
More to follow as we seek out a few season-long sweats.
