Super Bowl 2024 Picks: Expert Predictions from Rotoworld and NBC Sports Staff for Super Bowl LVIII
The list of available bets for the Super Bowl is a fun read but it can be overwhelming. From Taylor Swift-themed props to Travis Kelce receptions to Gatorade color options to be dumped on the winning coach to…well, you get the picture. It is easy to get lost scrolling through the hundred-plus options. For new bettors especially it can be challenging to somehow find smart bets and not spend more than you had budgeted.
A handful of the content creators at NBC Sports and Rotoworld have offered their favorite plays in an attempt to help bettors find value among all the options posted by the books. Consider it an act of kindness by the team.
Jay Croucher: Isiah Pacheco OVER 65.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
In the Chiefs’ 1st three playoff games this year Pacheco carried the ball 24, 15 and 24 times and now faces a dreadful Niners’ run defense. 15 carries may be enough for Pacheco to go over his number.
Drew Dinsick: Favorite Bet: San Francisco 49ers -2 (-102)
Favorite Prop: Purdy UNDER 31.5 attempts (-110)
The key to success for the Niners is pretty straight forward considering they are an all-time great zone running offense facing one of the worst zone run defenses in the NFL. It is reasonable to expect Kyle Shanahan will put the Chiefs run defense to the test early and often in this one and use this approach to open up opportunities for play action passes with the potential for explosive gains. Furthermore, in comeback mode last game, rather than pivot to a pass heavy scheme, the Niners continued to run the ball with Purdy electing to scramble when the play broke down. All of these observations make it especially surprising that Purdy’s pass attempt prop is near his career high at 31.5 instead of closer to his median at 27 making this the best bet on the board in my opinion.
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Vaughn Dalzell: Travis Kelce OVER 70.5 Receiving Yards (-130)
Kelce has recorded 70+ receiving yards in 12 straight postseason games and despite that, his prop line hovers around 70.5 yards. With 81 and 133 yards (a Super Bowl record for Tight Ends) in his last two Super Bowls on 21 combined targets (16 receptions), Kelce is a good bet to go OVER his yards prop yet again.
Connor Rogers: Brock Purdy OVER 12.5 rushing yards (-125)
With everything on the line in the postseason, we are seeing a much more aggressive Brock Purdy on the ground. Even before his five carry, 48-yard performance against Detroit, he topped this number the week before against Green Bay (six attempts for 14 yards). The attempts are what gives promise for the OVER here.
Denny Carter: Brock Purdy UNDER 245 passing yards (-110)
Purdy’s splits against top-half secondaries and bottom-half units are borderline startling. He has struggled against top-end coverage units for much of the season and (almost) no secondary is better than the Chiefs, who during the regular season allowed the second lowest drop back success rate and the second lowest EPA per drop back. There is every reason to believe the Niners will lean hard on the run against Kansas City.
Watch More: Jim Nantz discusses calling the Super Bowl.
Eric Froton: Isaiah Pacheco to have 39.5 MORE Rushing Yards than Pat Mahomes (-110)
Mahomes has rushed for 26 or fewer yards in four of the last five games, while KC’s bell cow Pacheco has rushed for 89+ yards in five of the last eight. Give me Pacheco -39.5 with a reasonably high level of confidence.
Raphielle Johnson: Isiah Pacheco Anytime Touchdown (-135)
Pacheco has reached paydirt in all three Chiefs’ playoff games, and I expect him to extend that streak to four. It is just that simple.
Brad Thomas: George Kittle Over 46.5 Yards (-115)
The saying “The Tight End is Always Open” applies constantly, but even more so in big games. The Chiefs’ secondary is dangerous outside the numbers, and Steve Spagnuolo would likely prefer anyone but Deebo Samuel to beat them through the air. By the way, I love Kelce to go Over his yardage total as well.
D.J. Short: Each Team to Score 1-plus rushing TDs and 1-plus passing TDs (+260)
This feels close to a lock for me. Pacheco and CMC have gotten the ball in the end zone in all of their playoff games, and I do not see that changing here. Mahomes has two great targets with his old buddy Travis Kelce and rookie Rashee Rice while Purdy has plenty of weapons to go around. And hey, CMC could conceivably get one on the ground and one in the air. That is also at +260, if you are feeling frisky.
Kyle Dvorchak: Brock Purdy UNDER 31.5 Pass Attempts (-125)
Purdy has only topped this number three times in 18 games this year and the Chiefs’ elite pass defense should force Kyle Shanahan to commit to his ground game.
NBC Sports has you covered through the rest of the NFL postseason, with PFT Live, Simms Unbuttoned, Fantasy Football Happy Hour, Rotoworld Football Show, Bet the Edge and Brother from Another breaking down the latest news and top storylines from all angles. Tune in to Peacock, the NFL on NBC Sports YouTube channel, or wherever you get your podcasts for all the coverage through Super Bowl LVIII and beyond.
Eric Samulski: Isiah Pacheco OVER 83.5 rushing yards (+205)
You can find this under the alternative rushing yards lines on most sportsbooks. The 49ers’ defense has allowed 57 carries for 318 yards this postseason, which is good for 5.58 yards per carry. David Montgomery averaged 6.2 yards on 15 carries and Aaron Jones averaged 6.0 yards on 18 carries. They both rushed for at least 93 yards. I expect this game to remain close, and Pacheco has all but 10 of the Chiefs’ running back carries in their three postseason games to date. If you are not quite as optimistic as I am, then you can just bet Pacheco over 66.5 rushing yards (-120) for the standard line.
Lawrence Jackson: Isiah Pacheco to Score 2+ TDs (+425)
49ers have given up 3 Rushing TD’s in each of their last two games and Pacheco has scored in all three of the Chiefs playoff games. You do the math.
Super Bowl betting is a fun way to create excitement in a game when your favorite team is not involved. That said, it is easy to get too caught up in all the excitement and spend beyond your means.
Enjoy the game and enjoy a few sweats.
*odds courtesy of DraftKings