Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell’s successes and failures in his current post are tied directly to the quality of his starting quarterback. When a capable Vikings signal-caller takes the field, O’Connell’s smartly schemed offense runs smoothly. When a less-than-serviceable quarterback trots out, first downs are hard to come by.
O’Connell and former Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah decided quarterback J.J. McCarthy was worthy of the 2024 NFL Draft’s 10th overall pick. A fully torn meniscus ended McCarthy’s rookie season before it started. A high-ankle sprain and poor play derailed his second season.
Searching for a new long-term answer, Vikings ownership promoted executive vice president of football operations Rob Brzezinski to interim general manager immediately after firing Adofo-Mensah on January 30th. Brzezinski was ultimately replaced by former Seattle Seahawks assistant general manager Nolan Teasley, but not before bringing aboard the Arizona Cardinals’ castoff veteran quarterback Kyler Murray to compete with McCarthy for the starting job on a cheap, one-year deal.
Murray guided the Cardinals to a 2-3 record before being sidelined by a foot injury, and was eventually replaced by backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who got far more out of Arizona’s pass catchers than Murray, albeit while guiding the squad to a 1-11 record.
Sufficient quarterback play pending, the Vikings possess the requisite skill position and offensive line talent to field a productive, fantasy-friendly offense in 2026.
▶ 2025 Minnesota Vikings Stats (Rank)
- Points per game: 20.2 (26th)
- Total yards per game: 275 (28th)
- Plays per game: 56.1 (30th)
- Dropbacks per game: 36.2 (27th)
- Dropback EPA per play: -0.11 (28th)
- Designed rush attempts per game: 23.1 (27th)
- Rush EPA per play: -0.06 (15th)
▶ Can Kyler Murray provide the requisite play quality for Kevin O’Connell’s system to shine?
McCarthy reportedly demonstrated improved touch and accuracy at voluntary organized team activities and mandatory minicamp, but was still outplayed by Murray, who will enter training camp as the favorite to win the starting job.
O’Connell enjoyed stable, healthy quarterback play in 2022 and 2024 and called plays accordingly. Across those two seasons, O’Connell’s offense ranked third in neutral game pass play rate (63.3 percent), eighth in offensive plays per game (67.2) and play-action pass play rate (28.9), 17th in shifts and motion rate (56.6 percent) and 12th in EPA per play (0.010). His 56.8 percent neutral game pass play rate and 26.8 percent play-action pass play rate from last season both rank 12th, but both figures are sizable decreases from his 2022 and 2024 ideals–and the two data points are the 2025 Vikings’ only qualifying top-20 finishes.
In 2025, Murray averaged more yards per pass play on plays featuring shifts, motion and/or play action than he did without. McCarthy delivered inverse results, his per-play efficiency declining whenever O’Connell added a creative tactic to his play calling. Murray is clearly the better fit in this regard.
McCarthy (QB30), wide receiver Justin Jefferson (PPR WR21), running back Jordan Mason (PPR RB36) and tight end T.J. Hockenson (PPR TE26) were the team’s top, respective skill position finishes last year. Vikings No. 2 wide receiver Jordan Addison finished as the PPR WR43 while starting running back Aaron Jones, injured almost all season, banked a PPR RB44 finish.
A quarterback better suited to O’Connell’s play-calling preferences should improve some or all of the Vikings’ skill position players’ stock this year.
▶ Passing Game
QB: Kyler Murray, J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, Max Brosmer
WR: Justin Jefferson, Tai Felton
WR: Jordan Addison, Myles Price
WR: Jauan Jennings, Dillon Bell
TE: T.J. Hockenson, Josh Oliver
As a passer, Murray fits well with O’Connell. He also remains a fantasy-friendly rusher, averaging 5.8 rushing attempts, 34.6 yards and 0.2 touchdowns per game last season. Although the 29-carry sample is the smallest of his career, he notably produced career-bests in missed tackles forced per rushing attempt (0.24) and yards after contact per rushing attempt (3.1). Murray is a candidate to finish among the position’s top-12 players this season, although he is best viewed as a QB2 with QB1 upside.
Jefferson, 27, turned in a disappointing season by his standards last year, catching 84-of-140 targets for 1,048 yards and two touchdowns. Among 32 NFL wide receivers with at least 99 targets across the full 2025 NFL season, Jefferson ranks 16th in yards per route run (YPRR, 1.88), ninth in target rate (25.2 percent) and ties for sixth in yards after the catch per reception (5.2). Last season’s results can be treated as a floor outcome for the Vikings’ top target. A return to the fantasy football WR1 tier is reasonable. His ceiling outcome includes a top-five finish. Come re-draft season, he may be available at his most affordable ADP in years. Buy the dip.
The Vikings signed big-bodied slot receiver Jauan Jennings to a one-year deal this offseason. Addison, 24, reportedly remains the Vikings’ clear-cut No. 2 wide receiver. As is the case with many secondary, field-stretching options, Addison’s production can be volatile. He has earned 278 targets over his three NFL seasons. Jennings, 29, has earned 249 during that span. Among 39 NFL wide receivers with at least 249 targets from 2023-25, Addison ranks 38th in target rate (17.3 percent), second in deep-target rate (24.5 percent) and 36th in YPRR (1.51). Jennings ranks 34th (19.8 percent), 29th (12.8 percent) and ties for 32nd (1.64), respectively.
Addison, still ascending and possessing an expectedly larger snap share, will produce more usable WR3/FLEX results than Jennings, whose fantasy relevance could be entirely touchdown-dependent.
Hockenson, 29, posted career lows in target rate (15.3 percent) and YPRR (1.05) last season. He warrants TE2 consideration in best ball formats, but is unlikely to return value as a re-draft TE1.
▶ Running Game
RB: Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason, Demond Claiborne, Zavier Scott
OL (L-R): Christian Darrisaw, Donovan Jackson, Blake Brendel, Will Fries, Brian O’Neill
Vikings left tackle Christian Darrisaw closed the 2025 season on injured reserve, plagued by issues stemming from the season-ending left knee injury (ACL and MCL tears) he suffered in Week 8, 2024. If Darrisaw can return to form in 2026, the Vikings’ offensive line can be one of the team’s best all-around units.
Vikings running back Aaron Jones, 31, took a pay cut to stay in Minnesota this year. While Jones may remain the nominal starter, burly running back Jordan Mason, 27, is a serious threat to lead the team in rushing attempts.
Last season, a Week 2 hamstring strain landed Jones on injured reserve until Week 8. He then remained active through Week 17, but dealt with a recurring shoulder injury, while also nursing toe and ankle injuries. A hip injury sidelined him for the Vikings’ meaningless Week 18 game against the Green Bay Packers. A Week 16 ankle injury sidelined Mason until Week 18.
Jones and Mason last played a full game together in Week 15. They split red zone snaps seven-to-seven, yet Mason out-snapped him six-to-one inside the five-yard line.
The team logged zero two-minute-drill snaps. Jones out-snapped Mason five-to-two on third down, though it sounds as though Jones may have competition for passing down duties. A late-May report from The Athletic’s Alec Lewis indicates sixth-round rookie running back Demond Claiborne’s “short-term NFL impact will hinge on his ability to master the system and his reliability in pass protection.” The Vikings reportedly “project a potentially game-breaking role” for Claiborne “in the long haul.”
If all three are involved this season, each player’s fantasy-scoring ceilings will be capped. This training camp battle should be followed closely. As is the case with most rookies, if Claiborne can earn a fantasy-relevant role, his production will likely be weighted toward the end of the season.
Should Jones and Mason split opportunities relatively evenly, Mason’s FLEX-viability will depend upon rushing touchdowns. Jones could offer more weekly reliability thanks to his pass catching.
▶ 2026 Minnesota Vikings Win Total
DraftKings Over/Under: 8.5
Pick: Under (-110)
Sharp Football Analysis lists the Vikings with the 16th-softest schedule. Projecting the Vikings for exactly 8.0 wins is, frankly, reasonable. DraftKings lists the over for 8.5 wins at -105. The Vikings could be 1-5 entering their Week 6 bye after playing vs. GB, @ CHI, @ TB, vs. MIA and @ NO. Their second win could come via a home game against the Indianapolis Colts, but they then play @ DET, vs. BUF, @ GB and vs. SF, which could easily net them another four losses, albeit perhaps close ones. Home tune-ups against the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers can get Minnesota back on track before playing @ NE and vs. DET. The Washington Commanders hired new offensive and defensive coordinators this offseason, which could produce anything from a fearsome, new-look squad to a disorganized disaster. The Vikings host them in Week 16 before flying to New Jersey for what should be a winnable game against the New York Jets. A Week 18 home game against the Chicago Bears could be the over/under fulcrum.
