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Could Raiders just keep Derek Carr? Yes, but they most likely won’t

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With $40.4 million becoming fully guaranteed if Derek Carr is on the Raiders roster at 4 p.m. ET Tuesday, Mike Florio and Chris Simms shed light on possible landing spots for the QB.

With the Raiders and Derek Carr careening toward a parting of the ways, an experienced agent reached out with a theory.

What if the Raiders simply keep Carr, allow the $40.4 million in guarantees to vest, and either trade him or cut him later?

If Carr wants to play this year -- and if he wants to properly prepare to play -- he’d likely waive his no-trade clause. Otherwise, he ends up being put on ice by the Raiders until he agrees to a deal.

And if they end up cutting him later, the offset language in Carr’s contract would possibly wipe out the full obligation, with Carr having $32.9 million due in 2023 and the remaining $7.5 million guaranteed for 2024.

If someone would trade for Carr’s contract, they’d pay him that much on the open market, and the Raiders quite possibly would be off the hook.

One source with knowledge of the dynamics says that won’t happen, even if it potentially makes sense. The biggest reason for it not happening is that they haven’t leaked the possibility of doing it to those who would then tweet it, allowing other media and fans to get comfortable with the possibility.

As it stands, not cutting Carr today would be an unexpected curveball, one that would create potential P.R. problems for the team.

That said, the powers-that-be in Las Vegas come from the Belichick school of “never say anything.” This commitment to keeping things completely quiet becomes a problem in situations like this, if the team is thinking about doing something that would seem surprising at one level, borderline dysfunctional at another.

Bottom line? Expect Carr to be cut today. If they were doing anything else, the Raiders already would have gotten us ready for the possibility.