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PFT’s NFL Week 11 2021 picks

Mike Florio and Chris Simms take a look at the intriguing Week 11 matchup between ex-Panthers coach Ron Rivera and a Carolina team likely to be fronted by Cam Newton.

He caught me.

In the ninth week of the regular season, MDS hit on two of our three disagreements. I wen’t 7-6-1, and he finished 8-5-1.

For the year, I’m at 92-57-1. MDS is now also 92-57-1.

This week, we again disagree on three games. Barring a tie in one of those three games, one of us definitely will lead after Week 11.

For all our picks, keep scrolling.

Patriots (-7) at Falcons

MDS’s take: The Patriots are rolling right now, and they’re going to be a tough team to beat down the stretch. They’ll beat the Falcons handily.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 34, Falcons 17.

Florio’s take: The Falcons won’t have to worry about blowing a 28-3 lead in this one.

Florio’s pick: Patriots 31, Falcons 20.

Lions (+11.5) at Browns

MDS’s take: The Lions are still winless, but at least they now have a tie on the record. They’ll get back into the losing column on Sunday but play competitively again.

MDS’s pick: Browns 20, Lions 17.

Florio’s take: If the Browns can’t win this one easily, then the Browns really is the Browns.

Florio’s pick: Browns 34, Lions 17.

49ers (-6) at Jaguars

MDS’s take: The 49ers’ Monday night win over the Rams may have been a harbinger of an impressive run coming down the stretch.

MDS’s pick: 49ers 34, Jaguars 20.

Florio’s take: Short week, long trip, and a mild danger of taking the Jaguars too lightly. Kyle Shanahan won’t let that happen.

Florio’s pick: 49ers 30, Jaguars 20.

Colts (+7.5) at Bills

MDS’s take: The Bills’ defense will shut Carson Wentz down in a low-scoring game.

MDS’s pick: Bills 13, Colts 10.

Florio’s take: The Bills are moving in the right direction, but the Colts won’t roll over. Just like they didn’t roll over in the playoffs.

Florio’s pick: Bills 24, Colts 17.

Dolphins (-3.5) at Jets

MDS’s take: The schedule sets up for the Dolphins to look a lot better in the second half of the season than they did in the first half. Not so much because the Dolphins will play better, but because their opponents are worse.

MDS’s pick: Dolphins 24, Jets 16.

Florio’s take: Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, Mike White, Joe Namath, Ken O’Brien, whatever. The Jets are dysfunctional and the Dolphins are trying to fight their way through dysfunction.

Florio’s pick: Dolphins 27, Jets 17.

Washington (+3.5) at Panthers

MDS’s take: Cam Newton as starting quarterback makes for a great story, and I think it will be a pretty good game, too, with the Panthers coming out on top.

MDS’s pick: Panthers 27, Washington 21.

Florio’s take: Ron Rivera knows Cam Newton far better than the current Carolina coaching staff does. If Rivera’s team can handle Tom Brady and the Bucs, they can handle Newton and the Panthers.

Florio’s pick: Washington 24, Panthers 20.

Ravens (-4.5) at Bears

MDS’s take: Justin Fields can make some big plays against a suspect Ravens defense, but Lamar Jackson can make even more big plays, and the Ravens will win.

MDS’s pick: Ravens 24, Bears 21.

Florio’s take: The Ravens gets their legs back under them against an inferior team, before a stretch run that features more than a few not-so-easy games.

Florio’s pick: Ravens 31, Bears 20.

Saints (+1.5) at Eagles

MDS’s take: I like the way the Eagles have been playing in the last few weeks, and they’re going to keep it going against the Saints.

MDS’s pick: Eagles 28, Saints 20.

Florio’s take: The Eagles are soaring. The Saints are sinking. And that’s a recipe for New Orleans turning things around, at least for one day.

Florio’s pick: Saints 27, Eagles 17.

Texans (+10.5) at Titans

MDS’s take: The Titans look like the best team in the AFC right now, even without Derrick Henry and Julio Jones.

MDS’s pick: Titans 30, Texans 17.

Florio’s take: It would make plenty of sense for a team that lost to the Jets to find a way to lose to the Texans. But the Titans learned a valuable lesson in New York, one they won’t forget against an overmatched Houston team.

Florio’s pick: Titans 34, Texans 13.

Packers (-2) at Vikings

MDS’s take: This is the Vikings’ last chance to make the NFC North interesting. It’s not going to happen.

MDS’s pick: Packers 31, Vikings 21.

Florio’s take: The Green Bay defense is grossly underrated. They’ll be the difference on Sunday.

Florio’s pick: Packers 27, Vikings 17.

Bengals (-1) at Raiders

MDS’s take: The Bengals are very much playoff contenders, and they’re going to make the Raiders look like playoff pretenders.

MDS’s pick: Bengals 28, Raiders 17.

Florio’s take: Both teams are currently struggling, but the Raiders are struggling more.

Florio’s pick: Bengals 28, Raiders 21.

Cardinals (-2.5) at Seahawks

MDS’s take: The Cardinals can put the final nail in the Seahawks’ coffin on Sunday in Seattle, and I think they’ll do just that.

MDS’s pick: Cardinals 28, Seahawks 21.

Florio’s take: Arizona needs to avoid entering their bye with a two-game losing streak. Enter the Seahawks, who are overmatched on a regular basis.

Florio’s pick: Cardinals 27, Seahawks 24.

Cowboys (+2.5) at Chiefs

MDS’s take: The Chiefs looked very good against the Raiders on Sunday night, but I just think the Cowboys are the better team.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 24, Chiefs 23.

Florio’s take: The Cowboys would be regarded as the best team in the league but for their Week Nine step-on-a-rake game against the Broncos. Dallas won’t step on a rake against the former AFL team that used to be in Dallas.

Florio’s pick: Cowboys 30, Chiefs 24.

Steelers (+5.5) at Chargers

MDS’s take: Even if they were 100 percent I wouldn’t pick the Steelers to beat the Chargers, but without knowing whether Ben Roethlisberger, T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick will play, the Chargers are the easy pick.

MDS’s pick: Chargers 28, Steelers 14.

Florio’s take: L.A.'s “B” team is slipping toward a “C” or “D” this season. The Steelers will run the ball, shorten the game, and keep Justin Herbert from saving the day.

Florio’s pick: Steelers 20, Chargers 17.

Giants (+10.5) at Buccaneers

MDS’s take: The Buccaneers have not been playing well recently, but a visit from the Giants should put them back in the win column.

MDS’s pick: Buccaneers 24, Giants 16.

Florio’s take: The Bucs currently aren’t what we thought they’d be, but they’re good enough to stop a two-game losing streak.

Florio’s pick: Buccaneers 27, Giants 21.