The Buccaneers are favored to win Saturday’s big NFC South showdown. Unfortunately for them, that’s not enough to win the division.
The Panthers are the betting favorites to win the NFC South, thanks to their path to winning the division via a three-way tied with the Buccaneers and Falcons.
Current betting odds have the Bucs as 2.5-point favorites to win at Tampa Bay on Saturday. That would leave the Bucs and Panthers tied at 8-9 atop the NFC South, and for the time being put the Buccaneers ahead of the Panthers via the division record tiebreaker.
But to win the NFC South, the Buccaneers need to win a two-team tiebreaker with the Panthers. If the Falcons beat the Saints on Sunday, the Falcons will also be 8-9, and in a three-way tiebreaker, the Panthers will win the division because the Panthers have the best record in games among all three teams.
The Falcons are three-point favorites to beat the Saints on Sunday, and that would be enough to hand the division to the Panthers regardless of what happens in Saturday’s Panthers-Buccaneers game. The current betting odds have the Panthers as -400 favorites to win the NFC South, and the Buccaneers as +310 underdogs.
Ultimately, the Panthers control their own path to the playoffs: Win and they’re the division champions. The Buccaneers need two things to happen: They need to win and they need help from the Saints beating the Falcons. And the odds are against that happening.
The Buccaneers would like to have all hands on deck for their Week 18 game against the Panthers and they had a key piece of their offensive line back on the practice field Tuesday.
According to multiple reports, left tackle Tristan Wirfs returned to action after missing all of last week with a toe injury. Wirfs was also inactive for Sunday’s loss to the Dolphins.
The team’s injury report will bring word of Wirfs’ participation level as the team gets ready for Saturday afternoon’s game.
Reports also indicate cornerback Jamel Dean and edge rusher Haason Reddick are at practice. Dean hurt his shoulder against Miami while Reddick was evaluated for a concussion.
The 2025 NFL regular season comes to an end on Sunday, and two playoff berths are still to be determined, with the AFC North and NFC South on the line. Also still up for grabs are most of the seeds, including the No. 1 seed in both the AFC and NFC. The full Week 18 Playoff Scenarios distributed by the NFL are below:
AFC
CLINCHED:
Denver Broncos (13-3) – AFC West
New England Patriots (13-3) – AFC East
Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4) – playoff berth
Buffalo Bills (11-5) – playoff berth
Houston Texans (11-5) – playoff berth
Los Angeles Chargers (11-5) – playoff berth
SCENARIOS:
Denver Broncos (13-3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (11-5); Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
Denver clinches the AFC’s No. 1 seed, lone first-round bye and home-field advantage with:
DEN win OR
DEN tie + NE loss or tie OR
NE loss + JAX loss or tie
New England Patriots (13-3) vs. Miami (7-9); Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX
New England clinches the AFC’s No. 1 seed, lone first-round bye and home-field advantage with:
NE win + DEN loss or tie OR
NE tie + DEN loss
Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4) vs. Tennessee (3-13); Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Jacksonville clinches AFC South division title and the AFC’s No. 1 seed, lone first-round bye and home-field advantage with:
JAX win + DEN loss + NE loss
Jacksonville clinches AFC South division title with:
JAX win or tie OR
HOU loss or tie
Houston Texans (11-5) vs. Indianapolis (8-8); Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Houston clinches AFC South division title with:
HOU win + JAX loss
Baltimore Ravens (8-8) at Pittsburgh (9-7); Sunday night, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Baltimore clinches AFC North division title with:
BAL win
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) vs. Baltimore (8-8); Sunday night, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Pittsburgh clinches AFC North division title with:
PIT win or tie
NFC
CLINCHED:
Seattle Seahawks (13-3) – playoff berth
San Francisco 49ers (12-4) – playoff berth
Chicago Bears (11-5) – NFC North
Los Angeles Rams (11-5) – playoff berth
Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) – NFC East
Green Bay Packers (9-6-1) – playoff berth
San Francisco 49ers (12-4) vs. Seattle (13-3); Saturday night, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC
San Francisco clinches NFC West division title and the NFC’s No. 1 seed, lone first-round bye and home-field advantage with:
SF win
Seattle Seahawks (13-3) at San Francisco (12-4); Saturday night, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC
Seattle clinches NFC West division title and the NFC’s No. 1 seed, lone first-round bye and home-field advantage with:
SEA win or tie
Carolina Panthers (8-8) at Tampa Bay (7-9); Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC
Carolina clinches NFC South division title with:
CAR win or tie OR
ATL win
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9) vs. Carolina (8-8); Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC
Tampa Bay clinches NFC South division title with:
TB win + ATL loss or tie
For most of this season, the Buccaneers have taken the same approach as most teams on kickoffs: Kick the ball into the landing zone and try to tackle the returner before he reaches the 35-yard line. But for the last three games, the Buccaneers have changed their strategy.
Over the last three games, every Buccaneers kickoff except one has gone into the end zone for a touchback, giving the opponent the ball at the 35-yard line to avoid the risk of a long return. The one time the Bucs didn’t kick it into the end zone, the opposing returner brought it back 47 yards, all the way into Buccaneers territory at the 45-yard line.
Given how badly it turned out when the Bucs kicked short of the end zone, coach Todd Bowles says kicking into the landing zone is not worth the risk of a long runback.
“We’ve talked about it and we’ve talked about guys being here just to cover kicks,” Bowles said. “Obviously, that wasn’t getting done the way we wanted it to get done, so we decided to just kick it in, give it up at the 35, as opposed to close to midfield. Obviously, the one return we gave up, whether it’s missed tackles or missed lanes or missed blocks, that’s kind of a result of it. So we’re just minimizing the damage.”
Asked why the Buccaneers can’t sign better kickoff coverage players, Bowles said that’s easier said than done.
“We’ve been looking,” Bowles said. “It’s hard to find 11 guys that you think can play special teams on someone’s practice squad.”
And so the Buccaneers will keep kicking deep, reasoning that even if they’re giving up good field position, their coverage team would likely give up worse field position.
A rare NFL three-way is now firmly in play.
With the Falcons beating the Rams on Monday night, 27-24, Saturday’s standalone Buccaneers-Panthers game is no longer a true NFC South championship game.
Yes, Carolina wins the division with a victory in Tampa. If the Bucs win, however, the division won’t be decided until the next day, when the Falcons host the Saints.
If the Buccaneers beat the Panthers on Saturday and the Falcons beat the Saints on Sunday, Tampa Bay, Carolina, and Atlanta would each finish 8-9. The ensuring three-team tie would go to the Panthers, based on a 3-1 record in the round robin among the division rivals.
A three-team tie atop a division last happened in 2011, when the Broncos won the AFC West at 8-8. The Chargers and Raiders also finished 8-8, with the Chiefs at 7-9.
A loss by Atlanta on Sunday (following a Tampa win on Saturday) would leave only Carolina and Tampa Bay tied. The two-way tiebreaker goes to the Bucs, based on record against common opponents. That would give Tampa Bay it’s fifth straight division tile and sixth consecutive playoff berth.
For that reason alone, some thought the NFL would schedule Panthers-Bucs and Saints-Falcons for 1:00 p.m. ET (or 4:25 p.m. ET) on Sunday. Instead, the Panthers will face with Buccaneers, with the possibility of a major asterisk being applied to the outcome, if the Bucs snap out of a four-game funk and get the win.
