Four of the Premier League’s current bottom-six sides play in Week 38, but will the relegation picture be decided before the season’s final day?
And, given Wolves’ recent evolution from possible lowest ever point total to late-season surgers, how many safe spots will be open?
Wolves and Burnley face long odds to get out of the bottom three, but have improved as we near the spring while West Ham’s success has the drop zone scrap looking about six teams deep and we’re now into March.
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What will it take to stay up?
Seventeenth-place Nottingham Forest are on pace for just under 40 points, a familiar magic number. That figure could be higher given the improvement of West Ham, who are on pace for the same figure, and the continued fall-off of Spurs. Leeds’ inability to turn draws into wins is also a big factor as they are within a bad weekend of the bottom three.
The last few 18th-place teams had point totals of 25 (Leicester City), 26 points (Luton Town), 27 (Nottingham Forest), 35 (Burnley), and 28 (Fulham). This is now a season that will probably require a figure closer to the magic ’40' to stay safe.
Current Premier League relegation table picture
- 15. Leeds United — 31 points, -11 GD
- 16. Tottenham Hotspur — 29 points, -7 GD
- 17. Nottingham Forest — 28 points, -15 GD
- 18. West Ham United — 28 points, -19 GD
- 19. Burnley — 19 points, -26 GD
- 20. Wolverhampton Wanderers — 16 points, -30 GD
Important ‘six-point’ fixtures left this Premier League season
- April 11: West Ham vs Wolves
- April 11: Burnley vs Brighton
- April 18: Nottingham Forest vs Burnley
- April 18: Crystal Palace vs West Ham
- April 18: Leeds United vs Wolves
- May 2: Leeds United vs Burnley
- May 9: Brighton vs Wolves
- May 17: Leeds United vs Brighton
- May 24: Burnley vs Wolves
- May 24: West Ham vs Leeds United
When can Wolves, Burnley be relegated?
Wolves and Burnley boast different max points total, though only the most optimistic supporter is expecting the sides to collect three points times their remaining games.
Wolves currently max out with 40 points and Burnley can get 46. With 17th-place Forest on 28 points, great escapes are still possible.
At the moment, 20th-place Wolves are 12 points back of Forest. About four more losses would essentially seal their fate in the bottom three even if Forest fail to claim any more points.
Burnley in 19th a bit more hope and one more game. To reach the projected cut-off of 39-40 points, they’ll need to get 20-21 more points.
Premier League relegation zone prediction
- Tottenham Hotspur, 39 points
- Leeds United, 39 points
- West Ham United, 38 points
- Nottingham Forest, 35 points
- Wolves, 29 points
- Burnley, 22 points
