We’re about two-thirds of the way through the Premier League season, but there’s so much work to do inside and outside of England for the clubs currently chasing the title.
It’s just not as simple as looking at the 13 games each left on the schedules of top-three teams Arsenal, Manchester City, and Aston Villa, because the trio all have European and domestic cup games left on the docket. They could have as few as 16 or as many as 26 games between now and the Champions League Final on May 30.
MORE — Premier League fixtures & results | Current table
Then there’s the matter of determining the number teams of competing for the title, or a top-five place. Is it just being polite to keep Villa in the equation, nine points out with two teams ahead of them? Or given the potential small number of points to win the crown, should we be widening the field to include a single-competition team like Manchester United who could stay hot and make a run? Ask Kevin Keegan what’s possible.
Arsenal are on pace for just over 85 points at 2.24 points per Premier League match this season and it may be possible that mid-80s is set to become the new norm for a champion of the deepest top division the world’s seen. Winners with 90+ point totals became more normal over the past decade, but the depth of competition is so strong that the three centurions (Chelsea once, Man City twice) of the past decade or so already feel like outliers.
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There’s also the matter of expected points, possibly the most wrongly-used metric in the sport. They do show quality from previous performances but too often you’ll read someone using them to project future point totals or goals. Take Arsenal, for example. They’ve accumulated 56 points while missing some big players earlier in that stretch. Man City have not had a full-strength Rodri until recent weeks and did not have Marc Guehi or Antoine Semenyo until this month. Man United and others missed key pieces for AFCON. Multiplying the remaining games by presuming these teams will play at the same rate against different opponents with different lineups is ridiculous. Anyway....
Before we get to projecting the winners of the Premier League, let’s ask a few interesting questions. For example, might Arsenal, Man City, and Villa not be the final identity of the PL’s top three?
Premier League title race — Who has the easiest road home? Who can gate crash the ‘top three?’
For this exercise, let’s just examine the Premier League opposition left on the schedule.
Yes, we know that every team plays the same 19 opponents two times each, but this is about the road home and with 13 opponents left there are bound to be some duds.
And this is why Arsenal should feel great about ending their wait for a Premier League title. The Gunners have one of the four easiest fixture lists left to go along with their six-point table lead. Aston Villa are right there with them, but have to make up those nine points without facing the Gunners.
Manchester United and Chelsea surely believe they can be 4-5 points better than Villa, but is that reasonable?
Maybe.
Chelsea have the second-toughest slate left in the Premier League, and face a six-match stretch that starts with trips to Villa and Arsenal three days a part followed by Newcastle, Everton, Man City, and Man United.
But there’s another way to measure ease of schedule and that’s sheer number of games. Manchester United’s miserable season in the cups means Michael Carrick’s men have just 13 games left and two of their three biggest asks — Liverpool and Villa — go to Old Trafford. With 39 points available they could feasibly target nine wins and be very close to Villa’s current points-per-match (1.88).
MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 1: Manchester United head coach / manager Michael Carrick celebrates with Benjamin Sesko of Manchester United at full time during the Premier League match between Manchester United and Fulham at Old Trafford on February 1, 2026 in Manchester, United Kingdom. (Photo by Robbie Jay Barratt - AMA/Getty Images)
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Premier League title, top-five race — Most consequential games left
Almost every contender has at least one brutal stretch left on their schedule.
Arsenal have consecutive games — both London derbies — against Spurs and Chelsea a week apart later this month.
Chelsea go to Arsenal and Villa three days apart to start March, and then host Man City and Man United a week apart in April and Liverpool and Spurs a week apart in May. The latter two stretches could also touch tournament games.
Man City get Chelsea and Arsenal in consecutive April weeks with a possible Champions League quarterfinal touching those games.
Liverpool meet Man United and Chelsea in consecutive early May weeks.
Aston Villa finish the season with visits from Liverpool and Man City.
Manchester United, again, get a break from the schedule makers.
And — attention: Tampa — the weekend of April 18 is shaping up to be special, with Man City-Arsenal, Chelsea-Man Utd, and Everton-Liverpool all dotted the fixture list.
- February 22: Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal
- March 1: Arsenal vs Chelsea
- March 4: Aston Villa vs Chelsea
- March 15: Manchester United vs Aston Villa
- April 11: Chelsea vs Manchester City
- April 18: Manchester City vs Arsenal
- April 18: Chelsea vs Manchester United
- April 18: Everton vs Liverpool
- May 2: Manchester United vs Liverpool
- May 9: Liverpool vs Chelsea
- May 17: Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur
- May 17: Aston Villa vs Liverpool
- May 24: Aston Villa vs Manchester City
Arsenal remaining schedule
*if necessary
#subject to change if Arsenal advance in cups
Feb. 12 at Brentford
Feb. 15 vs Wigan Athletic (FA Cup)
Feb. 18 at Wolves
Feb. 22 at Tottenham Hotspur
March 1 vs Chelsea
March 4 at Brighton & Hove Albion
*March 7 FA Cup fifth round
March 10-11 Champions League Round of 16 1st leg
March 15 vs Everton
March 17-18 Champions League Round of 16 2nd leg
March 22 vs Manchester City (League Cup Final)
*April 4 FA Cup quarterfinals
*April 7-8 Champions League quarterfinal 1st leg
April 11 vs Bournemouth
*April 14-15 Champions League quarterfinal 2nd leg
April 18 at Manchester City
April 25 vs Newcastle United#
*April 25 FA Cup semifinals
*April 28-29 Champions League semifinal 1st leg
May 2 vs Fulham
*May 5-6 Champions League semifinal 2nd leg
May 9 at West Ham United
*May 16 FA Cup Final
May 17 vs Burnley#
May 24 at Crystal Palace
*May 30 Champions League Final
Man City remaining schedule
*if necessary
#subject to change if City advance in cups
Feb. 11 vs Fulham
Feb. 14 vs Salford City (FA Cup)
Feb. 21 vs Newcastle
Feb. 28 at Leeds
March 4 vs Nottingham Forest
*March 7 FA Cup fifth round
March 10-11 Champions League Round of 16 1st leg
March 14 at West Ham
March 17-18 Champions League Round of 16 2nd leg
March 21 vs Crystal Palace#
March 22 vs Arsenal (League Cup Final)
*April 4 FA Cup quarterfinals
*April 7-8 Champions League quarterfinal 1st leg
April 11 at Chelsea
*April 14-15 Champions League quarterfinal 2nd leg
April 18 vs Arsenal
April 25 at Burnley#
*April 25 FA Cup semifinals
*April 28-29 Champions League semifinal 1st leg
May 2 at Everton
*May 5-6 Champions League semifinal 2nd leg
May 9 vs Brentford
*May 16 FA Cup Final
May 17 at Bournemouth#
May 24 vs Aston Villa
*May 30 Champions League Final
Aston Villa remaining schedule
*if necessary
#subject to change if Villa advance in cups
Feb. 11 vs Brighton
Feb. 14 vs Newcastle United (FA Cup)
Feb. 21 vs Leeds United
Feb. 28 at Wolves
March 4 vs Chelsea
*March 7 FA Cup fifth round
March 12 Europa League Round of 16 1st leg
March 15 at Manchester United
March 19 Europa League Round of 16 2nd leg
March 22 vs West Ham United
*April 4 FA Cup quarterfinals
*April 9 Europa League quarterfinal 1st leg
April 11 at Nottingham Forest
*April 16 Europa League quarterfinal 2nd leg
April 18 vs Sunderland
April 25 at Fulham#
*April 25 FA Cup semifinals
*April 30 Europa League semifinal 1st leg
May 2 vs Tottenham Hotspur
*May 7 Europa League semifinal 2nd leg
May 9 at Burnley
*May 16 FA Cup Final
May 17 vs Liverpool#
*May 20 Europa League Final
May 24 at Manchester City
Top-five race projected point totals
- Arsenal — 88 points
- Man City — 85 points
- Chelsea — 76 points
- Manchester United — 76 points
- Aston Villa — 76 points
- Liverpool — 74 points
This is so, so difficult. Arsenal’s schedule not only is the easiest but also includes the fewest number of games where their dropping points would come at the direct, immediate, on-field benefit of rivals on the day. Chelsea’s schedule is just so difficult, but their goal differential may swing them ahead of the bunch. And City fans, don’t be mad — we’ve seen your team go months without losing and this projection includes a head-to-head win at home to the Gunners.
