The fairly rigid formatting of the UEFA Champions League playoff phase and Round of 16 takes some of the imagination out of the equation for two rounds of the tournament, but it also has the sort of “alternate timeline” quality that’s come to dominate television and movies over the past decade or so.
MORE — UEFA Champions League knockout phase schedule, format
Yet it’s the league phase table itself that has again manufactured some real drama.
Each of the top eight teams on the table have earned byes into the Round of 16 and will know which two matches should be front-and-center on their screens.
High-profile rivalries as early as the Round of 16
Bayern Munich’s reward for finishing second on the table could be a very familiar foe. If eternal rival Borussia Dortmund or domestic power Bayer Leverkusen win their playoff ties against Atalanta and Olympiacos, respectively, Bayern would face a fellow Bundesliga side in the Round of 16.
And while many would think it unlikely, Sporting Lisbon’s surprise run to the No. 7 seed means they could face Portuguese rival Benfica in their first knockout round game. That would require Jose Mourinho’s Benfica replicating its league phase heroics against Real Madrid over two legs, but it’s possible.
Two underdogs can dream big with playoff upsets
By extension, the dream of a longer run will feel real for surprise final 24 sides Bodo/Glimt and Club Brugge. The table shook out in a way that allows them a 50/50 shot of surprise bye-winner Sporing Lisbon for Bodo/Glimt or Tottenham Hotspur for Club Brugge.
They will still be big underdogs — Spurs waxed Bodo/Glimt over two legs in the Europa League last year, while Brugge’s league phase wins don’t inspire a ton — but hope grows one step at a time.
Man City among sides magnetized to top opposition
Pep Guardiola will have laughed as he looked at the playoff pairings to realize that his expected Round of 16 opponent is likely to be either Real Madrid or Inter Milan.
Man City played Real in the league phase this season, the 2024-25 knockout phase playoffs, the 2023-24 quarterfinals, the 2022-23 semifinals, and the 2021-22 semifinals. Skip a year and there’s a Round of 16 tie, too. Inter, of course, are no strangers to City after the sides met in the 2022-23 final.
Which Premier League sides have the best path to the quarters?
Man City’s route is undoubtedly the toughest, assuming Real Madrid and Inter Milan hold serve against lesser opposition in the playoff round. We’d even say they’ve got a bigger ask than Newcastle United, who have to play Qarabag in the playoffs just to find out if Barcelona or Chelsea are next for them.
Next up are Spurs, who will face one of the same quartet of teams that could meet Liverpool. Spurs are behind Liverpool because, well, Spurs aren’t as strong as this year’s Reds.
Chelsea’s Round of 16 opponent will be Monaco, PSG, Newcastle, or Qarabag, and they’ll like their chances over 180 minutes against at least 75 of the group. And Arsenal will be expecting the quarterfinals at a minimum as their No. 1 seeds means that Atalanta, Bayer Leverkusen, Dortmund, or Olympiacos are next for them.
So while City may have the best chance of winning the European Cup in terms of quality, they’ll likely face a bigger Round of 16 hurdle than any other PL side.
- Arsenal
- Chelsea
- Liverpool
- Tottenham Hotspur
- Newcastle United
- Manchester City
