And then there were two. The Atlanta Dream and the Golden State Valkyries will faceoff in the 2026 Finals, each looking for their first-ever title win.
To get there, the Dream and the Valkyries swept the New York Liberty and the Las Vegas Aces in the semifinals, making it the first time in four seasons that either team will not be in the Finals.
This year’s WNBA Finals matchup proves that the adage “defense wins championships” is still true in the modern WNBA. Both the Dream and the Valkyries finished the regular season as two of the top four defenses in the league. Golden State had the best defense, while the Dream were third. During the postseason, the Dream have had the top defense with the Valkyries in close second.
“This year specifically with these two teams, [defense] has been the staple, and that’s been something they’ve talked about consistently throughout the season,” WNBA legend and broadcaster Tamika Catchings said in pre-finals broadcast call for USA Sports. “Yeah, like we’re gonna knock down threes, we’re gonna pass, we’re gonna do the offensive stuff, but their teams are built on the consistency of how they play defense.”
How exactly do these powerhouse defenses match up and what other assets — coaching, bench play and homecourt advantage — do the Dream and Valkyries have over each other? Let’s take a look.
Back court advantage: Atlanta Dream
While the jury is still out about if Allisha Gray (hand) will be able to play on Saturday, the Dream proved that they can compensate without their All-Star shooting guard. Jordin Canada and Rhyne Howard were just announced as honorees on the WNBA’s All-Defensive teams — Howard on the first and Canada on the second.
Both Canada and Howard have averaged 2.2 steals each throughout this playoff run and have fueled the Dream to average 24.4 points scored off turnovers in their five playoff games. But Canada and Howard haven’t just been wrecking havoc defensively, they also have been scoring at a high level, each also averaging 19.2 points throughout the postseason.
While Howard hasn’t shot the ball well at all during the playoffs, she’s found a way to put points on the board, and Canada’s playoff shooting splits have been remarkable. She’s shot 51.6% from the field including 50% from three and hasn’t missed one of her 18 free throws.
Front court advantage: Golden State Valkyries
The Valkyries have some the best wings in the league on their roster and DPOY candidate Kiah Stokes at the center spot. While Stokes doesn’t give Golden State much on the offensive end, that doesn’t matter. The players around her — Gabby Williams, Kayla Thornton, Janelle Salaün and Kaila Charles — can all score, shoot and rebound at high levels. Stokes and Williams earned All-Defensive honors; Williams on the first team and Stokes on the second team.
Throughout the regular season, the Dream averaged the most points in the paint, meanwhile the Valkyries allowed the least amount of points in the paint. This is because of Stokes and her ability to protect the rim, but also because Thornton and Williams play such physical defense that makes it so hard for an opposing offense to find open driving lanes and advantageous positioning on post-ups.
Sure the Valkyries don’t have a lot of depth when it comes to traditional bigs, but their physical two-way wings are what has helped them compensate all season long.
Coaching advantage: Natalie Nakase, Golden State Valkryies
Both Atlanta Dream’s head coach Karl Smesko and Valkryies’ head coach Natalie Nakase have found a way in year two to get their respective teams to the Finals.
Smesko deserves credit not only because of how he got Angel Reese to buy-in to the necessary work required to alter her three-point shot, but also because he has made sure that a team with three All-Stars (Reese, Howard and Gray) knew how to play for each other.
But when WNBA legend and NBC analyst Sue Bird was asked about what makes Nakase special — Bird works with Nakase on the senior women’s national team for USA Basketball — it became clear why Nakase was the 2025 Coach of the Year and a runner-up this season.
“She’s just a coach that really understands who she is and does a tremendous job of communicating that to her players,” Bird said. “The buy-in that she’s gotten from the Golden State Valkyries, from that roster, and from that franchise, I think that really speaks to her ability to communicate, her ability to say ‘this is who I am, this is what I think we’re capable of,’ and for everybody to buy into that.”
Nakase has proved that it doesn’t matter that she doesn’t have an MVP candidate or global superstar on her roster. Through her high-level skills as a tactician, a leader with high emotional intelligence and a willingness to outwork anyone, I am giving the slight edge to Nakase.
Bench advantage: Golden State Valkryies
If we are talking about strength in numbers, the Valkyries absolutely have more players they can turn to on their bench. That’s the beauty of this team. It’s almost unheard of to play 10 players during a playoff series, but this is something the Valkyries did in the semifinals against the Aces.
If starting point guard Veronica Burton is having a rough night, backup Kaitlyn Chen can be trusted to play in her place. If Golden State needs a bit more offensive creation, they often look to Tiffany Hayes. And if Thornton and Cecilia Zandalasini get into foul trouble, Charles is waiting in the wings. If Stokes gets into foul trouble, Nakase trusts rookie Aminata Gueye, who hasn’t even been on the roster for a full month.
While Golden State has strength in numbers here, that doesn’t mean Dream won’t see some quality performances coming off their bench. Expect Isobel Borlace, who played absolutely critical minutes against the Liberty, to be relied upon. And if Gray is all set to play, most likely DeWanna Bonner, the Dream’s invaluable veteran voice, will come off the bench as well.
Home court advantage: Golden State Valkyries
A lot of chatter this week was all about where the Dream would be playing their home WNBA Finals games. For context, the Dream played most of their regular home games at the smaller Gateway Center Arena (3,500 capacity), with five games at the much larger State Farm Arena (17,000 capacity).
Both Round One and the Semifinals were played at State Farm, but then the arena’s calendar—a Sombr concert and an Atlanta Hawks regular season game — put the Dream in a tough spot for Games 3 and 4 of the WNBA Finals. For days, the reports hinted that the Dream would have to play home games at the Gateway Center instead of State Farm Arena.
But then at the mere eleventh hour, stakeholders and shareholders found a way to make sure Games 3 and 4 were going to be played at State Farm Arena, a venue much more fit to host WNBA Finals games.
On the other hand, the Valkyries had the highest total and average attendance in the league during the regular season for the second-straight year. The atmosphere at Chase Center — also known as “Ballhalla,” a play on Norse mythology — has emerged as the best home court advantage in the league because of how consistently loud the fanbase is.
The Valkyries also have the advantage of being able to play in one consistent location all season long. While the Dream will only be playing at State Farm Arena starting in 2027, Atlanta’s fan base is still in its germination phase.
Prediction time: Atlanta Dream become 2026 WNBA champions
While 80% of these advantages went the way of the Golden State Valkyries, the Atlanta Dream haven’t lost a game since August 28. They have been the hottest and most composed team since the FIBA World Cup break at the end of August. And just because something is clear on paper, doesn’t mean that always translates to an outcome.
This composure comes in part from Angel Reese, a WNBA playoffs newbie who made it to the WNBA Finals on the power of manifestation. Plus, the work she put in to achieve that goal, including refining her three-point shot, which helped put the Dream in a position to compete for a WNBA championship.
manifesting the finals>>>
— Angel Reese (@Reese10Angel) October 11, 2025
I agree with NBC Sports analyst Cheryl Miller who made her prediction on a pre-WNBA Finals phone call.
“No sweeps,” she said. “There will be no sweeps in this series.”
The Atlanta Dream will win the series in six games at home. The league better be working on the location for that Game 6 in the meantime, since as of now there isn’t a clear plan about where Game 6 will be played if the series goes longer.
It won’t be easy and there will be many moments throughout the series where it feels like a coin flip. But the Dream have been playing a brand of basketball that is dependent on using their length to generate easy points in transition and off turnovers, a method that works when shots aren’t falling.
This is a team that knows what to fall back on when adversity hits their way — Atlanta swept the Liberty without Gray for most of the series.
Reese, like Breanna Stewart before her, will prove that she is one of the best winners this game has seen. Reese will win a title in just her third year in the WNBA just like Stewart did with the Storm in 2018. Also, Canada will continue her absolute tear throughout these playoffs and will win Finals MVP, becoming the first guard since 2022 to win the honor.
