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Memphis (-11.5) at Georgia: O/U 145.5
After watching multiple Georgia games, I am ready to begin fading this team in spots where they should be overwhelmed -- this is one.
The Bulldogs lost by 10 to Georgia Tech at home, Virginia by 10 and Northwestern by 16 on neutral courts before a three-point loss to Wofford at home. Georgia has lost four straight and five of the last six.
As a home underdog, the Bulldogs are 7-6 ATS and on the ML (53.8%) since the 2019-20 season. Georgia has never been more than +7 in that span, but the Bulldogs are not as talented as they were in previous seasons.
At home overall, Georgia is 8-11-1 ATS (42.1%) and 13-7 on the ML (65%) since 2019-20.
Meanwhile, Memphis has covered the spread 18 times in the last 23 tries (78.2%).
The Tigers won 19 of those games outright (82.6%) and covered three straight as the road favorite. They are 7-3-1 in the past 11 (70%), per NBC’s Edge Finder.
Georgia returns 5.7% of its minutes from last season (345th), and we witnessed how that inexperience has not improved in non-conference play.
Memphis is coming off an upset loss to Iowa State (78-59), the first loss of the season. This is a great bounce-back spot for the Tigers.
The Tigers play at the sixth-quickest tempo (74.3), have the third-best adjusted defensive efficiency rating (88.3) and rank top 40 in plenty of defensive categories that should stifle this Georgia offense.
Memphis beat Saint Louis by 16, Western Kentucky by 12 and Virginia Tech by eight before the neutral court loss to Iowa State.
Emoni Bates, Jalen Duren, Lester Quinones, DeAndre Williams, Landers Nolley and Alex Lomax will be too much for the Bulldogs. Memphis will beat Georgia by double-digits and score 75-plus points.
Play this out to -13 or the Tigers’ Team Total of Over 77.
Pick: Memphis -11.5 (1u)
Florida at Oklahoma (PK): O/U 135.5
What a game this is going to be!
As a home favorite, Oklahoma is 6-7 ATS (45.5%) since the start of 2019-20, going 1-5 (16.6%) in the last six games.
The Sooners are 11-2 on the ML (84.6%) during that span, so winning in Norman is not easy, but the Gators a tough team.
If you can slow down a few Sooners’ you can beat this team. In the previous outing, Oklahoma scored 65 points and six players accounted for 63 of those points. That will not work most nights, and they are lucky it worked out at UCF (65-62 win).
Florida is undefeated at 6-0, ranking top 23 in offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency while holding every opponent to 68 points or less.
The Gators got over the hump with a 71-55 victory versus Florida State this season and beat Ohio State 71-68 before smacking Troy 84-45 -- giving the starters a rest and tune-up performance before the road contest in Norman.
The Sooners struggle with offensive rebounding (252nd) and lately, they have turned the ball over a lot. Oklahoma had 19 turnovers against UCF in the past outing and 12 to Houston Baptist.
Florida ranks 42nd in offensive rebounding percentage (35.3%) and 27th in defensive turnover percentage (24.3%), so sound the alarm. The Gators should present issues for the Sooners and based on the size advantage for Florida, and I like the Gators to win this outright.
Oklahoma has three starting guards at 6-foot-3 or smaller, a 6-6 forward and 6-10 big man. Four juniors and one senior.
Florida has five seniors in the starting lineup and a top-seven-man rotation made up of juniors and seniors. The Gators have four players standing at 6-foot-3 or taller in the starting lineup and six guys in the top-seven.
The Gators’ Colin Castleton will be the tallest and most dangerous player at 6-foot-11. He has scored 10 or more points in every game to start the season and six or more boards in five straight contests, along with 17 total blocks.
Florida is the 10th and 11th ranked team in the nation per Kenpom and Barttorvik, while Oklahoma is 37th and 44th.
Back Florida to go into Oklahoma’s trap and take over Oklahoma’s trap. This will be a fun game to watch.
Pick: Florida ML (1u)
Florida Gulf Coast at FIU (-1): O/U 141.5
Since betting FIU +7.5 against Georgia (58-51 loss but cover), the Panthers have won six straight games, five against DI opponents.
FIU beat North Florida (65-56) and North Dakota (84-69) in the past two home games and look to beat Florida Gulf Coast (FGC) and Stetson to finish 4-0 on this home stretch.
Florida Gulf Coast has won four straight games -- all at home.
This will be the second road game of the season for Florida Gulf Coast. They lost 89-77 to Loyola Chicago in its only road game. Florida Gulf Coast is 4-6 on the ML over the past 10 road games (40%).
In three meetings between FIU and FGC, FIU is 3-0 ATS and on the ML, winning all three since 2018.
Two of those games have been on the road and the lone home game for FIU versus FGC was a 71-53 victory for the Panthers.
Looking over the numbers, FGC is living and dying by the three-ball, which is never a good sign for a road team.
FGC is hitting 41.7% from three (11th) and went 16-of-34 from deep against Loyola (47%). Outside of the three-ball FGC does not have much else. They struggle to rebound and defend the three, but play quicker FIU.
The Panthers do a great job at playing a slower tempo defense (18.7 seconds, 341st) and 32nd in adjusted defensive field goal percentage (43.9%). FIU holds opponents to 30.3% (94th) from three and 42.8% from two (28th).
If FCG struggles on the road and it could come down to a battle of the big men: FIU’s 7-foot-1 Seth Pinkney versus FGC’s 6-foot-11 Kevin Samuel.
Whoever controls the boards (should be FIU) and limits the opponents threes (could be FIU) should come out victorious. I will side with FIU on the ML (-120), playable out to -3.
I think the Panthers can slow the Eagles down.
Pick: FIU ML (1u)
Miami at Penn State (-2.5): O/U 135.5
Prepare for another snoozer.
This line opened at 137.5 and moved down to 135.5, perhaps not as low as it should be. If you have watched either squad play, you would know that both teams are less than average.
Penn State is playing at the 347th adjusted tempo (63.9), and 353rd ranked average offensive possession length (20.4 seconds). That is slower than Virginia and Idaho State, for example.
Miami plays offense at a quick pace but defensively has been able to slow down opponents to 17.8 seconds per possession (252nd). With both teams not turning the ball over and being terrible at forcing turnovers, we should expect plenty of drawn-out possessions.
Penn State has the experience edge over Miami, and being at home helps, but talent and size-wise, this is pretty equal. I like the Under between two teams that hit the Under quite often.
To start the season, Penn State is 5-1 to the Under (83.3%), while Miami is 8-2 to the Under in the past 10 games (80%), per NBC’s Edge Finder.
Despite missing the line movement, I will play Miami Team Total Under 66.5.
Penn State has held its opponents to 68 or fewer points in four out of six contests and Miami scored 69 or fewer points in four of the last five games.
I like Penn State to get the victory in this matchup as well given the home factor, pace of play and the ability to at least create their own shots. Guys like Seth Lundy, Myles Dread and Jalen Pickett can create their own shots and carry this team.
Miami’s only true road game this season was at Florida Atlantic, a 68-66 win. On three neutral court games, they lost by 16 (Dayton) and by 32 (Alabama). Miami used a second-half comeback to beat North Texas by six, so they are almost 0-3 on neutral courts.
Penn State has played quality competition for a newer squad and coaching staff. Penn State played Youngstown State, UMass, St. Francis NY, Cornell, LSU, and Oregon State through six games.
Penn State won three of its last four after dropping the UMass contest, including an OT loss to LSU -- they could be 4-0 since the UMass loss. They are the more talented team here and the only one that can shoot the three.
Back Penn State out to -4 and the Team Total down to 64.5 for Miami.
Pick: Miami Team Total Under 66.5 (1u), Penn State -2.5 (1u)
Rhode Island (-2.5) at Harvard: O/U 140.5
On the road, Rhode Island is 2-10 on the ML (16.7%) and 4-8 ATS (33.3%) since the start of 2020-21. Now, consider how those arenas were empty, and that is a disheartening stat.
Harvard did not play last year due to the Ivy League shutting play down because of COVID. To start this season, the Crimson are 5-2 SU with two three-point losses in OT -- they could be 7-0.
Rhode Island has a new coach in David Cox. With him, the Rams are 5-2 on the season, featuring a 4-0 mark at home, 1-1 on neutral courts and 0-1 record on the road.
The two losses were to Tulsa (77-71) and Florida Gulf Coast (67-66).
Rhode Island also beat Boston College twice, by six and eight points. I was just at a Boston College versus USF game and came away excited about a BC cover, but was unimpressed with how rare open/clean shots occurred.
That game was a struggle to watch unless you bet the Under. If USF and Harvard played -- Harvard would win.
Rhode Island is 1-4 ATS and on the ML in the past five games as a road favorite, beating La Salle last season. The Rams have yet to prove anything with wins over Boston University, Bryant, Georgia State and Boston College twice.
For the Crimson, since the start of 2019-20, Harvard is 12-1 on the ML at home (92.3%). The only loss was an upset to Brown. Harvard were the dogs twice and won both times over that span.
Let’s roll with the Harvard Crimson as they are live to get the outright win, plus I will be at the game, so sprinkle that ML!
I will have a Harvard Booster on PointsBet under Boosters and NBC Sports Name A Bet later today, so check back on Twitter.
Pick: Harvard +2.5 (1u)
Texas Tech (-2.5) at Providence: O/U 138.5
This will be a pure fade on who Texas Tech has played to start the season and this being the first true road game of the year.
Texas Tech has played and beat North Florida, Grambling State, Prairie View A&M, Incarnate Word, Nebraska Omaha and Lamar.
All six of those schools are 239th or worse in Kenpom. Five of those games were at home in Lubbock and one neutral court (versus Incarnate Word).
Providence has played three top 50 ranked programs, Wisconsin (63-58 win), Northwestern (77-72 win) and Virginia (58-40 loss). The Friars played four more games versus opponents ranked 180th or worse and won by seven, 11, 14 and 28 points.
The Friars defense is ranked 347th in average possession length (18.8 seconds) and Tech’s defense ranks top 25 in a ton of categories -- a friendly reminder of who they played against.
Texas Tech is led by Terrence Shannon, Kevin Obanor, Bryson Williams and Marcus Santos-Silva. The Red Raiders have above average size and a quality rotation of big men to oppose Providence.
Only time will tell if they are truly physical enough against equal talent and play up to their standards on the road and for the first time all season.
Providence is led by seniors Nate Watston, AJ Reeves, Noah Horchler and Aljami Durham. This group is gritty and outside of the Virginia game, the Friars have looked great.
Providence won six of the last 10 games as an underdog (60%) and four of the previous five (80%).
The $100 bettor would be up $693 if you bet Providence ML over the last 10 games the Friars were a dog, so let’s roll with the +2.5. They are live for the upset and the spread has come down from +3.5 to +2.5.
Pick: Providence +2.5 (1u)
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