Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how to bet No. 7 Missouri Tigers versus the No. 10 Utah State Aggies in the NCAA Tournament.
Missouri vs. Utah State (-1.5): O/U 155.5
This is a tough spot for Missouri.
The Tigers have to travel almost 2,000 miles to Sacramento and play on Thursday morning, not on Friday, and in a different time zone at 1:40 PM ET. Missouri has also struggled in the big dance.
The Tigers have lost and failed to cover five-straight in the NCAA Tournament dating back to 2010, so this travel isn’t helping them.
Missouri ranks 362nd in defensive rebounding percentage (37.3%) and outside 250th in defensive two-point, three-point and effective field goal percentages, per Kenpom. The Tigers have the 10th-ranked offense in the league and despite being 5-1 in the past six games, Missouri’s defense has allowed 71 or more points in four-straight games.
Utah State’s offense is ranked 13th in the country and can run with Missouri’s. The Aggies defense has much better numbers, including the 28th ranked two-point defense (45.9%) and the much taller team.
The Aggies are ranked No. 10 in Barttorvik’s system and should be favored by four points. Utah State is 12-6 versus top 100 teams, ranked 13th in offense and 86th in defense compared to Missouri who is ranked 56th and 11-9 versus top 100 teams (166th on defense).
This is a case of one team being undervalued all year (Utah State) and one being overrated (Missouri) mixed with bad travel for the higher seed.
I played Utah State ML at -125 odds and would go to -140 and grabbed the 1H ML as well at -120 odds.
Pick: Utah State ML (1u), Utah State 1H ML (1u)
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