Not one of the top four seeds in any region lost in the Opening Round of last season’s NCAA Tournament. Just one double digit seed (Arkansas as a 10-seed) advanced to the Sweet 16. Chalk prevailed by and large throughout the tournament. Will this year’s tournament unfold in a similar fashion? There have to be upsets! Doesn’t there?
We’ve looked at the Opening Round in the South, East and Midwest Regions. Let’s dive into the West Region and offer a look at each game of the First Round.
*odds provided by DraftKings
2026 NCAA Tournament: West Region
Arizona is the clear favorite to win the West. They bring to the court everything a team needs to succeed – strong guards, size up front, multiple scoring options, etc… - but they are missing a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. No one on the roster has enjoyed second weekend success in the NCAA Tournament. Does that change how you look at the Wildcats when you fill out your bracket? Or is this the year Tommy Lloyd reaches the Final Four?
No. 1 Arizona Wildcats (-100000) vs. No. 16 LIU Sharks (+5000)
Spread: Arizona -30.5
Total: 150.5
This line opened Wildcats -29.5 with the Total set at 150.5.
LIU has to hope that the early tip time bothers Arizona…or that they oversleep. All kidding aside, the Cats roll. They are too tall, too wide, and too athletic for this to be close. The Spread is a massive number, but the Cats should cover and also cash their Team Total. Reaching 100 points is certainly attainable.
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) likes the Cats big in this one:
“Arizona will roll LIU and cover the big spread. I played -29.5 and sent this out on X Sunday Night. I would go to -31, so make sure you shop around.”
No. 8 Villanova Wildcats (+105) vs. No. 9 Utah State Aggies (-125)
Spread: Utah State -1.5
Total: 146.5
This line opened Aggies -1.5 with the Total set at 147.5.
The loss of Matt Hodge (knee) could well be the difference in this game. Kevin Willard is an excellent coach, but the loss of the freshman from Belgium is a lot to overcome considering his ability to help spread the floor on offense (36.8% from 3-point range) and defend on the wing is difficult to replace against a physical, balanced Utah State team. Take the Aggies and lay the 1.5 points.
No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers (-500) vs. No. 12 High Point Panthers (+380)
Spread: Wisconsin -10.5
Total: 163.5
This line opened Badgers -12.5 with the Total set at 166.5.
Expect a track meet at the Moda Center in Portland. Nolan Winter’s availability and effectiveness is an immense unknown. Wisconsin is deeper and better by almost every metric, but if Winter is limited, High Point’s ability to control the ball and create extra possessions will play a more prominent role in the outcome. In the end, though, High Point has played zero Quad 1 games and lost both of their Quad 2 games. The Badgers should advance as they look to get to the second weekend for the first time since Greg Gard’s second season in Madison. I do think in the end they cover the double-digit number.
No. 4 Arkansas Razorbacks (-1450) vs. No. 13 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (+850)
Spread: Arkansas -15.5
Total: 159.5
This line opened Arkansas -15.5 with the Total set at 161.5.
Led by freshmen Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas, Arkansas is an efficient, high-scoring team that simply does not turn the ball over. Defensively, however, John Calipari’s crew is somewhere between mediocre and scary bad. That said, Acuff is the kind of player capable of dominating games and carrying Arkansas deep into the Tournament. So long as the Razorbacks don’t get caught playing with their food, they should be able to handle Hawaii’s length and roll Thursday.
Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper): Arkansas -15.5 (-108)
“Hopefully the Hogs are focused on taking care of business here instead of looking ahead to Wisky and Zona. Hawaii’s offense is wildly inefficient and turns over the ball aggressively which will undo them in this contest.”
John Fanta (@John_Fanta) has Arkansas making a run:
“I am taking John Calipari and the Arkansas Razorbacks to shock Arizona in the Sweet 16. I have Arkansas to the Elite 8.”
No. 6 BYU Cougars (-148) vs. No. 11 Texas Longhorns (-148)
Spread: BYU -1.5
Total: 159.5
This line opened BYU -2.5 and the Total set at 144.5.
Like Arkansas, the Cougars have a player in AJ Dybantsa who can put his school on his back and carry the team for a game. The difference between BYU and Arkansas is the supporting cast. BYU’s is simply not as good. While still strong offensively, injuries to BYU including and most prominently to Richie Saunders have limited the Cougars’ options beyond Dybantsa when BYU needs a bucket late. And BYU plays little to no defense, so every bucket is often vital. Texas does a lot of things well offensively but nothing great. They are strong on the boards. They create contact which leads to free throws, and they cash in from the line at a good percentage. But their defense, is not good. This one comes down to the Longhorns’ ability to contain Dybantsa. If they can somehow limit him, they can advance. Lean is to Texas to cover and even win outright.
No. 3 Gonzaga Bulldogs (-4000) vs. No. 14 Kennesaw State Owls (+1600)
Spread: Gonzaga -21.5
Total: 154.5
This line opened Gonzaga -18.5 with the Total set at 157.5.
With Braden Huff back in their lineup, the Zags should not only win but they should be in line for a run this March. As far as this specific game is concerned, the Owls just do not have the firepower necessary to win outright. They do rebound the ball well and defend inside the arc at an above average rate, but this is a step up in class. Factor in the travel for Kennesaw State and this looks like a walk for Gonzaga. Lay the points with the Zags.
No. 7 Miami Hurricanes (-130) vs. No. 10 Missouri Tigers (+110)
Spread: Miami -1.5
Total: 147.5
This line opened Miami -2.5 with the Total set at 150.5.
The Hurricanes were done no favors here by the committee who put them up against Missouri in St. Louis. This will be a grind it out, rock fight of a game. Miami prefers to play inside the arc. The Canes efficiency on the offensive end and their ability to control the tempo and the glass translates to a win for Jai Lucas unless Missouri breaks character and gets hot from 3-point range. Miami covers but not by much.
No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers (-8000) vs. No. 15 Queens University Royals (+2200)
Spread: Purdue -25.5
Total: 163.5
This line opened Purdue -23.5 with the Total set at 165.5.
Does the Purdue revenge tour continue right from the start of the NCAA Tournament? The Boilermakers sure looked like they were playing with a chip on their shoulder last weekend on their way to the Big Ten Championship. Matt Painter talked about this team now leaning in on the defensive side as the difference-maker for the Boilermakers. Doubtful they get tested much Friday but 25.5 is a big number. I’d suggest playing thePurdue Team Total OVER 94.5 or the Queens Total UNDER 68.5.
John Fanta (@John_Fanta) is on the Boilermakers’ Bandwagon:
“I have Gonzaga to the Sweet 16 facing Purdue and Braden Smith putting on another show and advancing to the Elite 8.”
Enjoy the games and best of luck with your bracket and bets.
