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Week 3 of the college football season is upon us. The first G5 game is in fact tonight, as Air Force travels to Wyoming to take on the Cowboys in a Mountain West tilt.
Air Force (-17.5) dominated Colorado last week to the tune of a 41-10 win, in a game that the Falcons could have won by more if not for a few fumbles.
The Falcons were 14.5-point favorites for much of this week, but have seen that number jump to 16.5 over the last several hours. Their early-season dominance makes them enticing heading into this one, but these conference rivals are all too familiar with one another.
In their last three games, the winning team has never won by more than 14 points. Last season, Air Force played host in this one and walked away 24-14 winners. In what I’ll consider a quick freebie to open this article, I’ll take Wyoming at +16.5 to cover this one at home.
Now, as I look to rebound from last week’s 0-1-1 results, let’s have a look at two more games on this weekend’s slate.
Georgia State (-19.5) vs. UNC Charlotte - O/U 61.5
Both teams enter this one in search of their first win, but it’s Georgia State who has run the early-season gauntlet over the first two weeks.
The Panthers lost a 35-14 road game to South Carolina to start the season and fell to the Tar Heels in a 35-28 tilt last week.
Through those first two games, quarterback Darren Grainger has thrown for 297 yards, four touchdowns and one interception while also rushing 29 times for 118 yards and another score. Grainger and the Panthers have averaged 21 points per game over their first two weeks against SEC and ACC competition, but their defense has proven solid thus far.
On the year, the Panthers are allowing a 38.6% success rate to opposing offenses -- good for 47th in the nation. Their pass defense has drawn a 73.0 grade from PFF.com, while their defense as a whole has received a grade of 72.4 -- ranking 64th on PFF.
Wide receivers Jamari Thrash (10-124-0) and Robert Lewis (8-132-3) are both averaging over 12 yards per reception, while the three-headed rushing attack of Grainger, along with running backs Jamyest Williams (28-144-0) and Tucker Gregg (29-103-0) could give Charlotte fits. The Panthers are one of the more aggressive running teams in the nation, rushing at a 62.7% rate, while Charlotte ranks 92nd in defensive success rate against the run (44%). Perhaps even worse is the 49ers’ success rate against the pass -- which ranks last in the nation at 50%.
For Charlotte, third-string quarterback Xavier Williams started last week against the Terrapins, but starting quarterback Chris Reynolds returned to practice earlier in the week. The team hasn’t announced a starter at this time, so it’s worth noting either Williams or Reynolds could be in play here.
Last week against Maryland, Williams went 18-for-35 passing for 192 yards and two touchdowns in their 56-21 loss. In their three losses, Charlotte has been outscored 58-140 and is 0-3 ATS. Their 41-24 home loss to William and Mary does little to instill confidence ahead of this one.
As previously mentioned, the 49ers have struggled on the defensive side of the ball. Offensively, things haven’t been much better. The 49ers rank 102nd in offensive success rate (38%) and are averaging just 19.3 points per game (119th).
The Panthers have faced stiff competition through the first two weeks of the season and finally get what should be a winnable home matchup. Georgia State is 9-5-1 ATS since last season and has looked solid despite their 0-2 start.
Pick: Georgia State -19.5
Despite the departure of head coach Billy Napier, the Ragin’ Cajuns are off to a 2-0 start to their season and have outscored their opponents 73-28. Louisiana’s hot start could likely be attributed to their matchups against Southeastern Louisiana and Eastern Michigan, but another generous matchup against Rice could be in store this weekend.
Quarterback Chandler Fields is off to a scorching hot start, having thrown for 314 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions, while backup quarterback Ben Wooldridge has thrown for 237 yards and another two scores. The Ragin’ Cajuns have averaged
Louisiana’s passing attack has received a PFF grade of 93.2 on the young season, while Rice’s pass coverage has received a grade of 62.9 -- with an overall defensive grade of 53.9. Rice’s rush defense has especially struggled on the season -- ranking 130th in rushing defense success rate (65%).
Rice was stomped by Week 1 against USC, losing 66-14, but moved to 1-1 with a 52-10 win over McNeese State. Quarterback T.J. McMahon, who made his first career start last week against McNeese, threw for 274 yards and four touchdowns and is expected to start this weekend against Louisiana.
McMahon is a two-star quarterback from the 2020 JUCO recruiting class and faces a tough Louisiana defense that ranks 29th in defensive success rate (33.1%).
The Cajuns have tallied five sacks through the first two games, and have a PFF pass coverage grade of 89.7.
Louisiana is 9-7 ATS since last season, while Rice is 4-10 ATS over that same span. Though early in the season, I love the strong offensive showing the Ragin’ Cajuns have made on the year, and believe their defense will be too much for McMahon in his first FBS start.
Rice has the home field advantage, but that may not matter much in this one.
Pick: Louisiana -11
2022 G5 Record: 0-3-1
Overall G5 Record: 14-13-2