Congratulations to Justin Rose, who picked up his first PGA Tour win since 2019 at Pebble Beach; he is now eligible to play at The Masters and the PGA Championship. This is great because there’s just something that feels right about Rosie playing at Augusta. I don’t know; maybe it’s the epic 2017 finish that saw him ultimately lose to Sergio Garcia in the sudden-death playoff. Either way, he has now staked his claim to one spot at each event.
Now we turn our attention from the iconic Pebble Beach Pro-Am to the fan-favorite Waste Management Phoenix Open. This year’s field is absolutely stacked. Not only does it feature two of the hottest golfers, Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy, but we are also treated to a field that features 24 of the OWGR top 25.
From Tony Finau rocking a Kobe Bryant Lakers jersey to beers being tossed on the 16th after Sam Ryder‘s incredible ace. The Phoenix Open delivers every single year. The field is great, and the vibes are high. They don’t call it the Greatest Party on Grass for nothing. As Colt Knost said after that unbelievable scene on 16 after the ace, “like I said, you come here, you try to be one of the legends….” That’s why the Phoenix Open feels like a major, golf’s sixth major, the “winter major,” as some have affectionately coined.
Needless to say, this week’s trip to TPC Scottsdale is shaping up to be one for the ages. Here are the course metrics I used when building my outright model in order of closest correlation to winning:
- SG: Approach
- SG: Off-the-Tee
- SG: Par 5 Scoring
- Par 4: 450-500
- Proximity: 175-200
- SG: Putting
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Outright Picks for Phoenix Open
Xander Schauffele DraftKings Boost (was +1400) +1650 0.5 units
These DraftKings odds boosts have been nice. Despite Viktor Hovland not winning, I likely wouldn’t have played him had it not been for this odds boost. The added EV allows me to find guys whom I’d rather not play with because the price might be too short. Given Schauffele’s injury concerns, +1400 might be a little too low for me to dive in. At least at +1650, I can make a case to ignore any concerns I might have. The max bet for me puts me in the 0.5 units range, so play this however you see fit.
If Schauffele had never been injured, I’d imagine he would’ve been one of the more popular bets this week. Given his success here over the past five seasons, it makes perfect sense to back him. He has three top-10 finishes, and every finish is no worse than T17. In that span, only Justin Thomas has gained more strokes here.
Schauffele’s injury concerns were quickly put to bed after his T3 at American Express and his T13 at the Farmers. Schauffele is third in my primary model, only behind McIlroy and Tony Finau. He’s top four in SG: APP, SG: Par 5 Scoring, and Par 4: 450-500. He’s such a great ball striker at a course that is historically won by the week’s best ball-strikers.
Patrick Cantlay +2100 0.5 units
I’m not going to lie; when I was building my card, I was torn between Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay. Then I had this brilliant idea of just betting them both. Let’s not forget that it was Cantlay who finished second after a losing playoff effort against Scottie Scheffler. When looking at the metrics which correlate the closest to winning, it shows plenty of metrics that hint at well-rounded golfers having success. Drive the ball well, play well with the long irons, get up and down when you miss GIR, and drain the birdie opportunities. Cantlay reminds me of that exact golfer. He’s one where there aren’t many holes in his game. Cantlay is great off-the-tee and drains putts in bunches. His price is slowly creeping up, so if you like him, it might not hurt to wait and bet him a bit higher on Wednesday.
Collin Morikawa +2500 0.5 units
When handicapping these events, it’s always a good idea to look at the different data services course fit tools. Collin Morikawa was high on the RickRunGood.com adjusted course fit model, and he was first in the DataGolf.com course fit tool. His driving prowess projects him high on this list. He’s not too long, but crazy accurate. He’s deadly on approach, and his putting woes seem to be behind him. He gained a stunning +5.7 strokes putting at the Sentry TOC and +1.4 at the Farmers. In back-to-back events, he was in contention to and probably should’ve won the Sentry had Rahm not ripped the title from his grasp late on Sunday. He’s too hot not to bet.
Tony Finau +2500 0.5 units
Outside of my auto TPC bet in K.H. Lee, Tony Finau was my first click in this tournament. It’s a lot of confidence for a guy who has missed three of his last four cuts here, but I continuously argue that this Finau is much better than years past. He’s even better than the Finau, who lost in a playoff against Webb Simpson. Betting and rostering Finau at TPC courses makes sense. Betting on him to win the 3M Open, which is held at TPC Twin Cities, was an easy decision, even despite having to pay a premium for his price. Now, we are betting on him at +2500, it’s a stronger field, but it feels like there’s value on Mr. Finau. Finau’s game is a great fit here. He’s second on my model because he gains a ton of strokes off the tee and is top 10 in just about every metric in my model.
Tom Kim +3000 0.25 units
Tom Kim is another golfer who found themselves high on the course fit model. He’s accurate off the tee, gains a ton of strokes on approach, and can get dialed in with his putter. His lack of distance off the tee worries me a bit, but there are plenty of scoreable holes for guys who average less than 300 per drive. He won’t be out of any hole because he’s not long enough, and his accuracy will keep him in advantageous situations when he needs to hit a long iron. Kim’s now a proven winner on Tour.
Max Homa +2500 0.25 units
I had an internal debate about how deep I wanted to go this week. I’m leaving great golfers, like Justin Thomas and Scottie Scheffler, off my card. It ultimately came down to picking the golfers I trust more to drain the putts when it matters. John Maxwell Homa is precisely that person. Max Homa is one of those golfers who is always a threat to win, but when he gets going, he’s unstoppable. I wouldn’t go as far as calling him a wildcard because he’s crazy consistent, but he is a rhythm golfer. He’s a fan favorite, which should give him a little extra energy while playing in front of about 250,000 strong.
Homa is four for four in made cuts here. His best finish came in 2020 when he finished T6, but with the form he’s in is unreal. He’s won three times in the past nine months and has a win and a T3 in his last two events. He’s a much-improved ball striker and a great putter. It becomes a no-brainer betting Homa this week.
K.H. Lee +9500 0.1 units | Gary Woodland +15000 0.05 units
These are my small, long-shot bets. With the strength of this field, I’d be hard-pressed to think of a long shot that I like to win. However, K.H. Lee‘s success at TPC courses warrants a play on him at this price. Gary Woodland is a FOMO bet. Not the best strategy, but he’s a major champion and won here in 2018.
